I don't want to make this thread about what people think about Bernie or his policies, but just how it might affect traders if at all, that's it. It's a valid concern right? Bernie is going to be the front runner now and his main qualm is wall street.
Obviously we know what will happen if a republican wins.
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This can't be a neutral thread, of course, because nothing involving politics can ever be. (Look at these two opinions about his prospects.)
I'm not neutral either, politically, but will just address the horse-race question, not policy.
After his first turn in the Democratic debate last night, I thought it was clear that Bernie would not be the nominee. It had everything that people like about him, and all through the debate he showed his many good qualities -- but also that he is too extreme and too one-issue oriented for the nomination, much less the general election. I don't think that will change, because he isn't going to change.
After her first turn, I thought it was clear that Hillary would be the nominee. She did what many people had become worried that she would not do, and came out strongly and kicked some ass.
Two very important notes:
1. No endorsement here on any policy matter, nor any candidate, and I'm not attempting to argue any political case. Just a prediction about the race that I think is very solid.
2. I hold the undisputed, and indisputable, title of the world's absolute worst political outcome predictor. My record of being totally wrong on who will win anything is so astounding that it defies belief.
I still stand by my prediction of course, but then, I always do.
I also sort of bypassed the original question about what the effect would be if Bernie is elected. But I think it's a question that will never need to be answered. (But please note point #2 above....)
I also realize that I should play fair with Itchy's original question, so, whether Bernie is nominated or elected or not, it does seem that he has already had an effect in influencing a shift in the discussion to more left of center than it otherwise would have been, at least among the Dems.
This is probably going to be an election where "populist" ideas have a role, as, in fact, they did in the last one as well -- remember the "47 percent" thing, which I think made a difference.
But if the question is about the individual trader, it's relevant to say that, if Bernie is not elected, his influence will be muted by all the other factors and currents and cross-currents of the election, and the way it will go is probably somewhere between hard and impossible to weigh out, at least so far.
Again, I'm not arguing anything about who should be elected, and there's no political position in anything I am saying, just trying to look at some of the possibilities. Which, of course, are still very uncertain.
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This post has been selected as an answer to the original posters question
Yes, of course.
I think there is a good chance of one or both, but probably the focus would be more on very large institutions and firms, if for no other reason than to not get a lot of negative attention, and negative votes, from smaller traders and investors who suddenly realize that it means them, too.
I think something like that is likely for any Democrat, with the open question of to what degree. But probably smaller retail traders would be OK. (Since everyone dreams of being big, not small, it eventually may affect a lot of us.)
I think it would be more likely, and there would be more of it, if Bernie is elected, which is kind of obvious. With another Dem, less focused on the issue, it's harder to say.
We can safely say that it would not happen with any of the current Republicans.
Again, speculation about outcomes, not an endorsement, pro or con.
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