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VW scandal and impact on German economy

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What is the most likely impact of the VW scandal on the German (European) economy ?
  • Germany represents +/- 21% of EU GDP
  • Current 1.8% growth will be impacted for sure
  • German car export is 200 B€, 20% of German export
  • German car industry employs 775.000 people

Seems like this has a bigger impact than the Greek turmoil, for the European economy which is
already not in top shape and we are currently still in a QE program for another year...

The future numbers will be interesting, so is the evolution of the € from a fundamental point of view...

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Can you briefly tell me what the scandal is? I don't watch TV news, haven't heard much about this.

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In a nutshell, VW group (which includes Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, and Porsche) installed special software to defeat emissions testing in millions of their cars since 2009. Basically they pollute like hell until emissions hooks up their testing device and then the cars run "clean" to pass emissions. I own a VW and love it, but this looks very bad for them.

edit : diesel motors only

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TheShrike View Post
In a nutshell, VW group (which includes Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, and Porsche) installed special software to defeat emissions testing in millions of cars their cars since 2009. Basically they pollute like hell until emissions hooks up their testing device and then the cars run "clean" to pass emissions. I own a VW and love it, but this looks very bad for them.

Nice. How bad is the difference between 'clean' and normal mode?

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They are saying about 10x to 40x more pollution when the cars are operating on the road.

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TheShrike View Post
They are saying about 10x to 40x more pollution when the cars are operating on the road.

Holy shit.

Yeah, so when are they filing bankruptcy?

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Can you briefly tell me what the scandal is? I don't watch TV news, haven't heard much about this.

Mike

The firmware in the injection system has some code in it that allows it to
Detect that the car is being tested... The engine then goes then in a special
Eco mode that allows it to pass environlental requirements, but then you
Don't have the power...

In normal mode seems those engines do not conform the specs nor
The legal requirements

This is going on for many years
Several types impacted
Massive recall...

Vw put asside already 7 or 8 billion USD
Ceo stepped down
Clash actions will be all over the place...

Only the tip of the iceberg
The share crashed

But i am thinking on economical impact....
This is potential serious...

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I don't understand why they just didn't keep the firmware running at all times? Why only run it during test?

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tturner86 View Post
I don't understand why they just didn't keep the firmware running at all times? Why only run it during test?

Because it reduces the performance and gas mileage. I have heard it phrased that they decided they could either make "a clean car or a fun car," and that they chose the one that would sell more.

Then they had to fake the clean part for the regulators, but turn it off for the drivers.

Bob.

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tturner86 View Post
I don't understand why they just didn't keep the firmware running at all times? Why only run it during test?

When the optimization for low emission was on the horse-power was low.

If VW did it, and if you know a bit about how smart can be the "firmware", I really don't see why the others haven't done the same thing.

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tturner86 View Post
I don't understand why they just didn't keep the firmware running at all times? Why only run it during test?

The delivered power is not the same
On the heat different
Combustion different hence not an option..

Question?
How to fix ?
If the design is NOK ?

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sam028 View Post
, I really don't see why the others haven't done the same thing.

Who said they didn't
Is like doping in sport....
In my opinion.




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bobwest View Post
Because it reduces the performance and gas mileage. I have heard it phrased that they decided they could either make "a clean car or a fun car," and that they chose the one that would sell more.

Then they had to fake the clean part for the regulators, but turn it off for the drivers.

Bob.


sam028 View Post
When the optimization for low emission was on the horse-power was low.

If VW did it, and if you know a bit about how smart can be the "firmware", I really don't see why the others haven't done the same thing.


rleplae View Post
The delivered power is not the same
On the heat different
Combustion different hence not an option..

Question?
How to fix ?
If the design is NOK ?

SO during the emissions test they couldn't determine the motor wasn't running at spec?

@sam028 other companies may have, which is even scarier... Think if Ford, Toyota, Honda, and GM all dropped the same bombshell...

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sam028 View Post
When the optimization for low emission was on the horse-power was low.

If VW did it, and if you know a bit about how smart can be the "firmware", I really don't see why the others haven't done the same thing.

We don't know, of course, that they have not done it.

Apparently, the game of fooling emissions testing has gone on for a long time; they are called "defeat devices" and there is history of them, with many manufacturers: Volkswagen emissions defeat device and past offenses by Honda, GM and Ford .

Due to computer advances, it's now simpler. Just write some code.

Bob.

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sam028 View Post
When the optimization for low emission was on the horse-power was low.

If VW did it, and if you know a bit about how smart can be the "firmware", I really don't see why the others haven't done the same thing.

The blatant deception is more concerning. This is willful deceit. Any company capable of this level of fraud for this long probably has more bodies buried in the closet...

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NOx and toxic emissions from Diesel cars

The problem is about NOx emissions caused by Diesel cars.

Below are two recent studies showing that a number of manufacturers have problems complying with the recent norms.

I believe that many people within the automotive industry were aware of the problem and knew what was going on.


VW facing risk of insolvency

VW has a particular problem because of its size and its market share in Diesel cars.

The group might well face the equivalent to chapter 11, as

-> they are going to face claims by 480.000 US customers
-> there will have to deal with about 2.8 million German customers
-> total amount sold of Diesel cars with EA 198 engine is over 11 million cars
-> who will buy a Diesel cars manufactured by VW group over the next 12 months ?

US limits for NOx are lower than in Europe (31 versus 80 mg/km)


Future of Diesel cars uncertain

The two reports attached shows that the NOx pollution caused by Diesel cars is not yet easily controlled. If it was, NOx emissions would be lower than actual. Also there is a trade-off between NOx and CO2 emissions. Diesel engine allow for lower CO2 emissions, but have higher NOX emissions. Diesel cars are good for the global climate, but they are not good for the climate in our cities.

The US has always been more reluctant to accept Diesel cars than Europeans. Here is a link to the Report On Diesel Exhausts from 1998.

The Report on Diesel Exhaust

France and Spain have the highest shares of Diesel PKWs in Europe (about 64% of new cars in 2014). The share in Germany is below 50%. Compare this to a share of below 3% in the US.


Emission problem in European Cities

The limits for NOX in the European Union are 40 micrograms per cubic meter. And here comes the problem. Many cities have an average level above the limit. The only way to fix this problem, is to remove all Diesel cars from the cities.

Attached Thumbnails
VW scandal and impact on German economy-icct_pems-study_diesel-cars_20141013.pdf   VW scandal and impact on German economy-icct_nox-control-tech_revised-09152015.pdf  
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As a note. The VW scandal relates to a Diesel engine which is no longer manufactured.

The German automotive association (ADAC) has recently (published in September 2015) tested NOx emissions from a variety of cars.

Below is a table showing all cars that do not comply with the European standards (80 mg/km) under a test called WLTC 2.0. This test is more realistic than the current tests used by European authorities, but has no legal implications. As you will notice all manufacturers have cars that exceed maximum allowable emissions by a factor up to 16. Landrover, Nissan, Volvo and Renault are leading the pack.


VW scandal and impact on German economy-eco-test-2_246818-1.pdf

The cars listed are those exceeding the limit. The limit is the zeroline.

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You literally know everything @Fat Tails it's almost scary.

I think VW will go under, or broken up and sold for parts.

This is bad, I got 3 VW's in the family and one of them is diesel, my almost 3 yr old niece rolls in the diesel

This could be the end of diesel, if every authority around the world retests all diesels from all manufacturers in real world tests (and not on rollers) and they find they are all doing it - I wouldn't be surprised if they all are to some degree.

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In Belgium there are 500.000 cars with the suspect (EA 189) diesel-engine that could be manipulated.

It is yet unclear how many effectively have that software loaded.
Belgium is a Diesel country, as 3.4 million out of 5.6 million cars are equipped with a diesel engine.

Official investigation has started by the FOD economy (federal agency)
Government has asked VW to articulate a compensation plan

This IS going to hurt VW ...
If it become too big, they probably will file Ch 11 or something alike...

Good for Elon Musk from Tesla who visited Antwerp yesterday.

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I wonder if the result of this will be that one could get a perfectly-compliant gasoline powered Audi at a steep discount, due to halo effect.

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PeakGrowth View Post
You literally know everything @Fat Tails it's almost scary.

I think VW will go under, or broken up and sold for parts.

This is bad, I got 3 VW's in the family and one of them is diesel, my almost 3 yr old niece rolls in the diesel

This could be the end of diesel, if every authority around the world retests all diesels from all manufacturers in real world tests (and not on rollers) and they find they are all doing it - I wouldn't be surprised if they all are to some degree.


I don't think VW will be broken up. On the contrary I think that the scandal will be a major catalyst for manufacturing cleaner cars. There is a case pro Diesel and there is a case against Diesel.

Also it is no accident that Volkswagen was caught in the US. The US legislator seems to be more or less indifferent to climate change (global warming, mainly a consequence of CO2 emissions), but has its focus on reducing toxic emissions in urban areas.


Pro Diesel

The fuel efficiency of US vehicles is a desaster, when compared to internationals standards. As a consequence current CO2 emissions are around 120 g/km in Europe, while they are over 180g/km in the US.

Attachment 193857

Diesel cars are generally more fuel efficient than gasoline cars, which contributes to the relatively low CO2 emissions in Europe. CO2 emissions in the US were 17.0 metric tons per capita. Compare this to 8.9 metric tons in Germany and 9.3 metric tons in Japan. Other countries like the United Kingdom (7.0) or France (5.2) haven even lower emissions.

The USA are by far the worst contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in the world.


Contra Diesel

The case against Diesel motors are the toxic emissions which are a by-product of the combustion process. Main problems here are particulate matter (soot) and NOx. In Europe focus was less on NOx, but on soot which is known to be cancerous. Also the main source of NOx emissions in urban areas are trucks and buses, not passenger cars. But let us look at the figures.

Brussels has introduced NOx limits of 40 micrograms per cubic meter. Meanwhile there is an hourly reoprting available via internet where you can check air pollution for the current day. The hourly reporting has layers for O3 (ozone), NO2, CO, SO2 and PM 10. You can find it at

EEA :: NRT Viewer

The screen map below shows the NOx concentration in Germany, UK, Belgium, Austria and Northern Spain over the last hour. The light green and yellow (London) points show the areas where the EU limit for the annual average of 40 micrograms per cubic meter (20 ppb) is currently exceeded. There is also an hourly limitt of 200 micrograms per cubic meter (100 ppb).



The US national ambient air standards have the limit set a 53 ppb (or 106 micrograms per cubic meter) which is 2.5 times higher than the European limit. Both limits refer to an annual mean. There is also an hourly limit at 100 ppb (200 micrograms per cubic meter) for the 98% percentile. I could not find accurate data for single cities, but the document below suggests that NOx concentrations in US cities are slightly lower than in their European counterparts.

VW scandal and impact on German economy-no2coso2.pdf


Both greenhouse emissions and NOx emission are twice as high in the US compared to Europe

Nevertheless, if you look at emissions of NOx per capita or per GDP, total emissions in the US are about twice as high as in Europe. The United States remains the dirtybird of the world.

VW scandal and impact on German economy-nox-emissions-per-country.pdf

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The financial impact for VW is immediate and severe

1) the ECB has put VW on a black list

2) the CDS (Credit default swap) prices have soared. This is the price one has to pay as an insurance
against insolvency. Insolvency for the next 5 years are now priced on 19% chance

3) bond prices have fallen and result in the return shooting up from 2.3 to 3%
this is still low one can think
but keep in mind that this is in a near zero rate environment
so VW is paying a huge premium on its debt
In a not so distant history VW debt paid 1%

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rleplae View Post
The financial impact for VW is immediate and severe

1) the ECB has put VW on a black list

2) the CDS (Credit default swap) prices have soared. This is the price one has to pay as an insurance
against insolvency. Insolvency for the next 5 years are now priced on 19% chance

3) bond prices have fallen and result in the return shooting up from 2.3 to 3%
this is still low one can think
but keep in mind that this is in a near zero rate environment
so VW is paying a huge premium on its debt
In a not so distant history VW debt paid 1%

Clearly, there are both immediate and long-term potential consequences.

In addition to the above list, which looks pretty severe to me , VW has also set aside several billion (as I recall, over 6 billion in Euros, or over 7 billion in dollars) as a reserve against various losses, including fines and lawsuits. That comes to about half of a full year's profit (!).

I would say that it is likely not going to be enough, particularly in the face of the most serious of both the short and long-term consequences: loss of sales due to loss of trust. That is what will sink them, if anything does.

We may see a merger or a sale before this is done. It may be the best, or only, way to get out from under the blow to their reputation, as well as to recover some value for the stockholders -- who may, in fact, demand it if things start to really go badly financially.

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The charges in US for the 500k cars with that motor software are calculated up to 18 billion Euros.
Not included the consumers who want some money back...
Even higher will be the punitive damages (US legal) that can have a leverage of 200.

In fact - the 500k cars in US are not the big deal: there are more than 11 mio cars with the same
motor software sold in Europe... The type of motor is Typ EA 189.

As first country taking action we have seen Switzerland forbidding to sell NEW cars of this type
immediately. This means that parts of the sent fabrication have to be modified...
But the license is void - as long no proof is on the table that the motors are working within the limits.

One last point: The software is coming from german Bosch company. They handed it over to VW
several years ago - saying that it is illegal and only for testing use. But VW took it to put it on all
diesel motors from 1,2l 1,6l and 2l sold for vehicules built in many countries.
The known brands using this motor are VW, Skoda, Seat as well as Audi (with models A1, A3, A4, A6).

As we see that not only VW brand is in difficulties - the weight coming from other manufacturers
than VW will have a special impact.

Finally - the money set aside by VW (6 billion EUR) does NOT cover even a part of all the costs
flowing in for the next 5 years for all the legal side.

Just think of US is stopping the license on all 500K running cars: every such car would have to be
parked and no longer used...

So - VW is in a most difficult situation right now.

GFIs1

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A short glimpse on the technical side:

Diesel motors are emitting Nox. On a bigger motor some good technical processes can
bind the Nox and eliminate to push it into the air. The larger cars with bigger motors
are not concerned: even trucks are not having the problem as there a product AdBlue
(liquid urea) is used to filter and bind the Nox.
But smaller motors (the niche of VW models) have a bigger problem - as the motors do not
have efficient Nox treatment. VW wanted to lessen Nox whith a AdBlue tank. But in
the driver had to fill up AdBlue on every 3rd tank of diesel.
As the gas stations in USA are not so dense and not selling AdBlue for the small percentage
of Diesel cars - VW decided to go the way of cheating - just blowing out Nox to not fill
up the catalisator.
Now this illegal way has found a sudden end.

GFIs1

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Germany:

The ministery for vehicules (Kraftfahrtbundesamt) has given a limit until 7th october for VW to show
their masterplan how to deal with the vehicules with cheating software at clients and on stock.
If the plan is not coming or is not good enough then the license will be cancelled.

Italy:
The government announced today to make tests on 1000 VW cars from next week. Every test will cost
8000 Euro per test. They will not wait for numbers given by german VW. So Italy has own results within
3 months.

Belgium:
A belgian importer of VW has taken out 3200 cars with said motor from the showrooms. He says that in Belgium
(which is a Diesel country) around 500000 cars are involved in this VW scam running in the streets.

Taking action means putting new software into the engines - at least.
And for the consumer it means MORE diesel consumption and less power.
On every single vehicule...

GFIs1

source: https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/volkswagen-konzern-plant-rueckrufaktion-fuer-diesel-a-1054964.html

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Former CEO of VW Mr. Winterkorn who stepped down this week was the manager with the highest salary
per year in Germany: measly 16 million Euro.
He will probably get another 16 million for 2016 as his contract will end by then...
But for his future as pensionist the company has set aside another 28 million Euro for him.
Plus a car for mister Winterkorn with driver.
And an office in VW central building for a lifetime.

Any words?

GFIs1

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Quoting 
As we see that not only VW brand is in difficulties - the weight coming from other manufacturers
than VW will have a special impact.

The issue that I'm most curious about is which other manufacturers besides VW might be sweating bullets, right now, waiting for the shoe to drop on their defeat devices. If any other manufacturers were trying to pull a fast one, there's some really cheap puts to be purchased.

I've actually done some preliminary research into doing some real life scuttlebutt, e.g. doing emissions testing myself/or hiring a 3rd party, but as near as I can tell, it's an endeavor beyond my resources and abilities. Perhaps some car nerd with too much time on their hands did a DIY and posted the results on some unnoticed out-of-the-way car forum somewhere on the web...

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GFIs1 View Post
Former CEO of VW Mr. Winterkorn who stepped down this week was the manager with the highest salary
per year in Germany: measly 16 million Euro.
He will probably get another 16 million for 2016 as his contract will end by then...
But for his future as pensionist the company has set aside another 28 million Euro for him.
Plus a car for mister Winterkorn with driver.
And an office in VW central building for a lifetime.

Any words?

GFIs1

I think they should replace him with Bill Belichick.
He will get it sorted for them LOL.

Now that the dirty old ladies are out of the commercials they can bring in
Tom Brady to be their new spokesman. He can explain how it's a big misunderstanding.

The problem- you see is that the Firestone tires on these cars were under inflated.
The fix is simple- No problemo.

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Perhaps some car nerd with too much time on their hands did a DIY and posted the results on some unnoticed out-of-the-way car forum somewhere on the web...

I guess this should not be impossible ?

Alibaba link

Sounds like a 600$ device could get you started, at least to do some preliminary factfinding


Some more complicated university research (could give guidance)

Thesis

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As the company of VW has admitted last week to have cheated on regulations concerning
the tests - there is NO doubt about real fraud.

Some countries have taken action against VW. Every hour the list gets longer.
To have it summed up here the countries that have started:

- USA / California (different law actions)
- Switzerland (stopped selling new cars)
- Germany (different law actions - looking to stop license)
- France (law actions against fraud)
- Italy (checking cars to eventually cancel license)
- Norway (checking imported cars on fraudulent software)
- EU (wants from every country results of used fraudulent software in their country)
- GB (wants from all countries to check the diesel cars to see if they are within margins and publish the results)
- South Korea (control the vehicules - 59000 in the country - threee different models)
- India (making tests for fraudulent software on mentioned cars)
- Mexico (testing if motors were fabricated in Puebla plant with fraudulent software. A big part was exported to USA)

list not ending here - of course

GFIs1

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The market (as always) was prescient..


Travel Well
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Often with large companies the question comes up if that one is TOO BIG to fail....

In the case of VW we need to see the consequences:
1) the client: has decided to buy a car from a good manufacturer - having knowledge to make
motors consuming less and being nature friendly. For this the consumer was ready to pay more
for that specific car and did not buy another...
2) the country: giving license on computerized tests (that were all ok...) for ALL imported cars
with same motor. The country was never assuming that the tests were all done fraudulently
3) the non incurred people: assuming to have latest technology in the streets - not fearing to
be intoxicated by passing cars
4) the legislative: if today's technology is best on its way - one can decrease the margins for
all market competitors
5) the competitors: if VW "meets" the standards - and the company itself has no means to
meet those standards too - they will leave the field to all others...

Conclusion: ALL and everyone was cheated - and nearly everyone has lost money, belief,
health, and much more

There is NOTHING positive to see that a company following such global fraud - that it can not be
taken responsible for their actions...
If every single customer, importer, country, competitor will sue VW for their scam - then
VW company has to close down the whole production in very short time - as liquidity
will drain extremely.

GFIs1

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ratfink View Post
The market (as always) was prescient..


Very well said.

Basically, somebody knew....

Bob.

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The market (as always) was prescient..

oooohhh @rat:

Now it looks it does not matter what german stock you buy now: BMW, Daimler, VW -
Same price - Same shit?

Have a great end of weekend
GFIs1

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oooohhh @rat:

Now it looks it does not matter what german stock you buy now: BMW, Daimler, VW -
Same price - Same shit?

Have a great end of weekend
GFIs1

Well I guess some are still shittier than others and I dare say Santa will pick some up sometime.

Cheers

Travel Well
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Quoting 
I guess this should not be impossible ?

Alibaba link

Sounds like a 600$ device could get you started, at least to do some preliminary factfinding


Some more complicated university research (could give guidance)

Thesis

I'm not sure that sensor would let me easily test real-world emissions, if there was sneaky code to monitor when the car was moving. The Portable Emissions Testing Sensors I've found are things like this and this, and their websites don't even have a price, you have to e-mail for a quote, which is usually not a sign of a low priced product in my experience.

Also, cannot read the paper as I only sprechen about drei words of Duetsche.

Addendum:

So ICCT has apparently been raising hell about this issue in general terms for years, though they only ran specific tests in the last year or so: https://theicct.org/blogs/staff/laboratory-versus-real-world-discrepancies-nox-emissions-eu

Also - and this is more of a fun fact than anything directly relevant to the future of this issue: two weeks elapsed between the publication of their white paper slamming VW and the EPA notice of Clean Air Act violation/VW stock plunge. And there was a less detailed report published last May that didn't name specific cars, but did discuss specific manufacturers.

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As described earlier - in Switzerland VW cars with manipulated motor software have no
longer a license. This is for cars built 2009 to 2014.
A owner of such a car can still drive further.

But:
The ministery has clarified yesterday that at the moment of changing owner - the car
will not get the license and can not be used by the new owner.
This means that 180000 cars in Switzerland can not be sold as second hand vehicule.
So all those cars are worth ZERO and have no value any longer.
Bad news for all drivers who thought they will not being affected.

GFIs1

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Besides potential plays with other bad actors in the auto space, or the interesting question of who will take up whatever market share VW loses... given the massive potential effects to Germany's economy - and ultimately Europe/the world's economy the question I'm struggling with is this:

At what point (and in what way) does this become a diplomatic/international issue, and have its course decided as such by elected politicians rather than un-elected civil servants (who are mostly in control at the moment, I suppose)? I imagine the bureaucracies of different countries would probably inflict death by a thousand cuts, they certainly already got VW bleeding.

Perhaps Merkel goes around begging/threatening, with predictions of the German economy sinking (and taking all you suckers with it) should the worst case scenario occur for VW. Basically, unless some coordinated multi-national deal gets made, I don't see how VW gets out of this.

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Audi is announcing that 2,1 million vehicules worldwide have the same motor with
fraudulent software:
1,6l and 2l are to find in the models A1, A3, A4, A6, the sport TT as well as Q3 und Q5.

In western Europe 1,2 million are found.
In Germany 550 thousand.

It took now a week to find that out - what a perfect database

GFIs1

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The connection of free VW (and connected) importers in Switzerland -
(Verband freier Autohandel (VFAS) are starting to sue VW.
These importers have now 1000 vehicules in stock - but can NOT
sell them anymore.
They say that it takes months until VW even starts to change the
software on all 180 thousand vehicules in Switzerland.
And by then the new cars in stock are no longer to sell...

Well - if that starts even little here - the big wave is right behind.
For sure

GFIs1

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The prosecutor of Braunschweig (Germany) has started an investigation against
former VW chief Winterkorn today.
The prosecution is about fraud in case of millions manipulated motors (software) built in
cars of VW, Audi, Seat, Skoda and some more brands sold worldwide.

Things are evolving parallel...

GFIs1

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I am afraid the issue is more political and moral, it's not about VW but rather about Germany and its reputation as the strongest and cleanest economy in EU, damage is done and the PIIGS have one more argument in their defence, while the whole EU car industry is once again in backwardation.

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I am afraid the issue is more political and moral, it's not about VW but rather about Germany and its reputation as the strongest and cleanest economy in EU, damage is done and the PIIGS have one more argument in their defence, while the whole EU car industry is once again in backwardation.

VW brand had been marketed to bring "the cleanest diesel technology" to clients around the world - right?
And what they did:
1) they started to bypass the tests since 2007... (!)
2) betraying clients, selling chain, countries, nature etc in many countries around the world...
3) have been alerted several times from experts that something has to be wrong with the tests
4) NO reaction from the management
5) but management wants first more money and has NO emergency plan
6) the consequences are coming and will be most painful NOW
the most expensive payments will be for punitive damages (US law) for the measly 500k vehicules

Sad for a good brand to be taken into the mud willingly by the management over the last 10 years.
I see no good in the taken strategy.
Markets and some judges will finally tell how VW's future will look like.
Good luck

GFIs1

PS: the scandal is not that one of the most important german industrial giants has cheated -
but that they could do it since 2007 without being nailed selling fraudulent products in large size...

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After known numbers of manipulated diesel cars of VW group
this evening came out the number of VW daughter Skoda:

1,2 million vehicules worldwide are affected

GFIs1

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This is a problem for the reputation of the entire German auto industry, not just for Volkswagen.
GM, the owner of Opel, may get dragged into this.


Quoting 
As it turns out, Volkswagen may not be the only carmaker that sold diesel-powered cars which exceeded allowed emissions levels.

A report from Transport & Environment drops the bomb, claiming more carmakers sell vehicles which exceed the European limit for air pollution.

During the past three years, Transport & Environment (T&E), with the support of the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT – the organization that alerted US authorities to its concerns over VW), has exposed several ways carmakers manipulate emissions tests in Europe for both air pollution and CO2 emissions.

Diesel BMW, Mercedes, Opel, PSA Cars Suspected Of Manipulating Emissions Tests Too [Updated]

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GFIs1 View Post
After known numbers of manipulated diesel cars of VW group
this evening came out the number of VW daughter Skoda:

1,2 million vehicules worldwide are affected

GFIs1

Due to the magnitude of the numbers (multiplication) this becomes more and more a monster problem

Q1 : Is it "easy" to bring one of those cars in compliance ?
Having cheating software is one thing.
Disabling this software is another thing. (reflashing).
How can a car be made compliant (reduce to reasonable pollution)
What is the cost per car

Q2 : The outlook for VW as a group must look very ugly ..
the cash flow will stop brutally
provisions need to be made
banks will revisit credit lines
cost of credit soars

legal departments will run over-drive time

still my initial questions holds, what will be the impact on the German Economy
and as an 'engine' behind the EU economy what is the impact ?
taking into account that export (cars) is an important pillar ...

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still my initial questions holds, what will be the impact on the German Economy
and as an 'engine' behind the EU economy what is the impact ?
taking into account that export (cars) is an important pillar ...

Things will get worse before better. Then at some point the government will step in as a hard backstop to protect the jobs, and in 10 years all will be forgotten...

My thoughts..

Mike

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rleplae View Post
Due to the magnitude of the numbers (multiplication) this becomes more and more a monster problem

Q1 : Is it "easy" to bring one of those cars in compliance ?
Having cheating software is one thing.
Disabling this software is another thing. (reflashing).
How can a car be made compliant (reduce to reasonable pollution)
What is the cost per car

The FRAUD does not disappear while installing new software over the old one:
Simple clients bought these cars understanding that they are "Best Of Technology",
using 3,5l diesel per 100km and will be best for nature ;-)
If VW is putting the original "cleaning" back to work - the same car uses
suddenly 6 to 7 l diesel per 100km and is much less powerful than seen in
prospects.
All the good numbers evaporate - every client feels cheated again!

GFIs1

PS: Cost of 1l diesel in Switzerland today is $1.70
If your car needs 7l /100km instead of 3,5 (as shown in prospect) - your calculation
for driving will be most different.

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Zondor View Post
This is a problem for the reputation of the entire German auto industry, not just for Volkswagen.
GM, the owner of Opel, may get dragged into this.

The supplier of the software for the motors in german cars is BOSCH.
Every car maker uses parts or them...

As mentioned in earlier post - cars with larger motors are not affected.
Daimler (Mercedes), BMW normally have larger motors with better NOx reduction. These work
under heavy tests without problems.
PSA with many small motos will have the same problem as VW group faced.
Only tests under real conditions will bring acceptable results.

GFIs1

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If your car needs 7l /100km instead of 3,5 (as shown in prospect) - your calculation for driving will be most different.

It's amazing that it took this long for it to come out - all these million drivers were using 2x the fuel than what they expected. And with all the various Car Magazine test reviews, car forum enthusiasts (they even have them for Skoda), they never made a loud enough voice for the problem to emerge earlier.

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sixtyseven View Post
It's amazing that it took this long for it to come out - all these million drivers were using 2x the fuel than what they expected. And with all the various Car Magazine test reviews, car forum enthusiasts (they even have them for Skoda), they never made a loud enough voice for the problem to emerge earlier.

No, they actually wen't using 2x the fuel they expected.... They were producing many, many times the pollution they expected, but the fuel use and horsepower output was good.

Now the problem is, that the VW "fix" that allowed their pollution numbers to look good when the regulators tested them did so by reducing the fuel economy and the output. So if that software fix is put in as a standard now, then the drivers will have bad fuel usage, and low pickup too.

Up to now, those drivers were perfectly happy. Now, they probably won't be.

Bob.

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The FRAUD does not disappear while installing new software over the old one:
Simple clients bought these cars understanding that they are "Best Of Technology",
using 3,5l diesel per 100km and will be best for nature ;-)
If VW is putting the original "cleaning" back to work - the same car uses
suddenly 6 to 7 l diesel per 100km and is much less powerful than seen in
prospects.
All the good numbers evaporate - every client feels cheated again!


The technical problem here is that if you wish to achieve maximum fuel efficiency for a car, you need to use more oxygen in the combustion chamber. The higher content of oxygen means

-> that next to all carbon atoms are burned (low emissions in sooth and carbon monoxide)
-> that fuel efficiency is increased
-> that the exhausts still contain between 5% and 20% of oxygen

With a surplus of oxygen in the exhaust it is basically impossible to cut down NOx with simple NOx storage catalytic converters. Other technical solutions such as SCR (selective katalytic reduction) need to be applied. This process requires the use of DEF (Diesel exhaust fluid), which is an aqueous urea solution.



For small cars the SCR devices are rather expensive.

I am curious to understand how the other manufacturers of Diesel cars coped with the problem.

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For small cars the SCR devices are rather expensive.

I am curious to understand how the other manufacturers of Diesel cars coped with the problem.

Well, this may be cynical, but I think the answer, for the smaller Diesels at least, probably was that they found a good way to cheat as well....

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Well, this may be cynical, but I think the answer, for the smaller Diesels at least, probably was that they found a good way to cheat as well....

Bob.

One of the main problems here are the laboratory tests used by governments for testing. The New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) dates back to 1997. As the car manufacturers knew the test, they focused on designing cars that passed the test, not cars that were complying with the regulations that were meant to be implemented with the test.

I think there are two way of cheating:

active cheating: recognize test and switch off cleaning devices when the test is not being performed

passive cheating: design exhaust cleaning devices in a way that they are optimized for the test without caring about the output under regular driving conditions

I think all manufacturers of Diesel cars found a more or less practical solution to pass the tests. The question is how far they went to cheat.

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A publication shows that also 1.8 million small trucks are impacted by this fraud software

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Calculations of damage in this case of VW fraud are going up to 40 billion Euro up to now.

Some cash and worth calculations on the VW group:
20 billion are held in cash or stocks
VW could pay up to 80 billion (including selling brands like Bugatti, Porsche and others)
before going bust.
Of course the company can not go forward as planned as long all that threat are not from the table -
and that takes years. VW is the first large german car builder now being out of the serious manufacturers.

VW had given order in year 2005 to use fraudulent software to reach US conditions to obtain license.
That came directly from Wolfsburg - the central of development.
No real excuses for that - even for later management - as all documents were at hand.

GFIs1

more to come

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PeakGrowth View Post
You literally know everything @Fat Tails it's almost scary.

I think VW will go under, or broken up and sold for parts.

This is bad, I got 3 VW's in the family and one of them is diesel, my almost 3 yr old niece rolls in the diesel

This could be the end of diesel, if every authority around the world retests all diesels from all manufacturers in real world tests (and not on rollers) and they find they are all doing it - I wouldn't be surprised if they all are to some degree.


Actually I do not think that this is the end of the Diesel engine.

Most of the Diesel cars that Volkswagen sold were sold in Europe. The offensive EA189 engine, which was fitted to 11 million vehicles, is a Euro 5 engine. The Euro 5 limit for NOx stands at 180 mg/km. I think that it should be comparatively easy to fix all Diesel cars with the EA189 engine in a way that they pass the old European limits of 180mg/km.

The new Euro 6 Diesel motors are (apparently) not using a defeat device. The Euro 6 limit has been set at 80 mg/km.

The main problem are US sales. In the US the limits were set at around 31 mg/km, and obviously it is much more of a challenge to retrofit the Diesel cars in the US. Let me repeat this:

NOx limit in Europe for Euro 5: 180 mg/km (easily achievable)
NOx limit in Australia (Euro 4): 250 mg/km
NOx limit in the US: 31 mg/km (requires redesign/retrofit of exhaust treatment)

By the way my son is driving an old Volkswagen - very robust - from 1995 with a petrol engine. At that time the Euro 2 limit allowed for 500 mg/km NOx for petrol cars, which is 2.5 times as high than the limit for Eur0 5 Diesel cars.

Average emissions of passenger cars in the US were 870 mg/km in the year 2000. (Source EPA). I think there is a lot of hype around the case.

However, I consider it a criminal offense that VW installed a defeat device to manipulate real world emissions. It will take some time to find the guys who are responsible. Let us see whether they will be jailed.

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I think that it should be comparatively easy to fix all Diesel cars with the EA189 engine in a way that they pass the old European limits of 180mg/km.

I don't doubt the cars can be modified to pass emissions without the defeat device. Isn't the question under what circumstances, in other words with how much loss of horsepower?

Mike

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I don't doubt the cars can be modified to pass emissions without the defeat device. Isn't the question under what circumstances, in other words with how much loss of horsepower?

Mike

I do not think that the loss of horsepower will be significant. But Diesel consumption and CO2-emissions will probably rise.

Anyhow 180 mg/kg is less of a challenge than making comply the motors with the new US standards, which are 6 times lower.

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Negative marketing
VW has to give back the "Green Car of the YEAR" award in USA.
Pulls back now Public Relations in several countries in Europe.

Tax reducing and subvention
Several countries especially in Europe give subvention on low emission cars
on new buys. And / or giving tax reduction on such cars.
As VW with some models obviously did not meet this criteria some countries
want to get back subventions and tax reduction back from 2005 (first cars
with the fraudulent software) up to now.
This sums up to quite a good sum counting the 11 million cars affected.

Know How erased
It is known that the boss Winterkorn as well as 3 chiefs of the technical
divisions are no longer working. This means that four heads with excellent
technical knowledge and knowledge on the latest developments are missing
from one day to another.
This will have for sure negative impact on actual pipeline of new cars.

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New threat from Australia:
The government is checking to sue VW for all imported cars with fraudulent software
for a sum of 692000 Euro

PER CAR!

"EACH breach of law can be fined with up to 1,1 millon AUS dollar"
source: ZDF tv (Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen)

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the law suits from investors have begun. 20k euros for damages from loses...
Abgasskandal: Erster deutscher Anleger klagt gegen Volkswagen und will Schadensersatz für Kursverluste

It goes without saying that VW Management was stupid to deceive the world BUT the biggest idiot move was that they were investigated by the CARB and EPA starting end of 2014. Basically, CARB/EPA were reproducing the tests conducted by the ICCT, who did the original tests that uncovered VW's deceit in 2013, and had contacted VW for answers. VW just stonewalled with excuses like "must be the test equipment" for 9 months before CARB/EPA threated to not certify 2016 vehicles so VW then admitted that they cheated! This brings up a few points:
When a company is investigated by a Government agency, the topic usually goes to the legal department/ownership/top management. So what were they thinking? 9 Months is enough time to scrabble and do damage control...."yes, there is a problem with the car and we must recall and delay 2016!". Management must have thought they could somehow win...

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JohnS View Post
It goes without saying that VW Management was stupid to deceive the world BUT the biggest idiot move was that they were investigated by the CARB and EPA starting end of 2014. Basically, CARB/EPA were reproducing the tests conducted by the ICCT, who did the original tests that uncovered VW's deceit in 2013, and had contacted VW for answers. VW just stonewalled with excuses like "must be the test equipment" for 9 months before CARB/EPA threated to not certify 2016 vehicles so VW then admitted that they cheated! This brings up a few points:
When a company is investigated by a Government agency, the topic usually goes to the legal department/ownership/top management. So what were they thinking? 9 Months is enough time to scrabble and do damage control...."yes, there is a problem with the car and we must recall and delay 2016!". Management must have thought they could somehow win...

Yeah, that's the part that puzzles me. They knew it was coming. Piech tried to get rid of Winterkorn at the time, but the board sided with MW. Everyone was very confused as to why Piech would just drop his protege like this, but now we know. How could the board/C-level people NOT know exactly what would happen? They should have disabled the defeat device and spin it as "the EPA forced us to decrease these car's milage to be sure they don't give off high emissions, even though it happened only in very few cases". Instead they were incredibly arrogant and crashed it into the wall at full speed.



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Know How erased
It is known that the boss Winterkorn as well as 3 chiefs of the technical
divisions are no longer working. This means that four heads with excellent
technical knowledge and knowledge on the latest developments are missing
from one day to another.
This will have for sure negative impact on actual pipeline of new cars.

I doubt that. These managers have not done any actual R&D work for years and they are being replaced by people who have been a little closer to the people who do the work.

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- France has started officially to investigate against VW in case of fraud.

- Switzerland has stopped the license for new cars with fraudulent software
on brands Audi, VW, Seat and Skoda per next monday. To prevent bringing
in more cars that do not reach the minimal standards.

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skoa View Post
I doubt that. These managers have not done any actual R&D work for years and they are being replaced by people who have been a little closer to the people who do the work.

This may be right for Martin Winterkorn.
But the head of development (manager) HAS to be the pushing force - and of course is involved in every step
of a development in his department.
Hey - he IS responsible - so he needs to know.

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GFIs1 View Post
This may be right for Martin Winterkorn.
But the head of development (manager) HAS to be the pushing force - and of course is involved in every step
of a development in his department.
Hey - he IS responsible - so he needs to know.

GFIs1

I agree that the development guy had to know, but this was a major decision involving how to position the product line, especially in the US, where Diesel cars had very little penetration, and where VW was attempting to make a big strategic push.

The decision certainly came from Winterkorn. It was too important. The others were, of course, also part of it and perhaps came up with the particular idea of using a defeat device -- or rather, told their subordinates to solve the emissions problem and then approved their solution -- but the final OK had to be made at the top.

By the way, although I'm sure it would be hard to prove, the board, or key members of it, almost certainly also knew, and gave their approval.

And by the way, in the US, the VW TV commercials for the last couple of years have usually included the words "clean Diesel" as a reference to how good these cars were, leaning on the appeal of German engineering. There is something of a negative bias toward Diesel cars in the US, and VW knew they had to overcome it. This was a major, top-level decision.

Bob.

Edit: I have to agree with @skoa, that the loss of these top-level executives has not left a hole in VW's technical expertise. That still resides with the engineers and the lower-level managers who direct them at a closer level. What is gone is some of the top-level decision-making, which is probably a good thing....

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Agree totally @bobwest:

The heads of the development departments DO KNOW about the stuff...
And if they are kicked out - in sight of decision making - this may be good.
But still: the visionary people like for example Piech are giving their
point of view with all details from top down...
And that only can work as long this chain is still intact!
People on lower levels (even with huge know how) will not have that impact
for the whole company.

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Does anybody have a calculated guess of the impact on the trade balance for Germany ?
and for Europe ?

What would be the impact on the € as a stand alone event
and if their would be contamination to other car producers ?

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Does anybody have a calculated guess of the impact on the trade balance for Germany ?
and for Europe ?

What would be the impact on the € as a stand alone event
and if their would be contamination to other car producers ?


You cannot calculate the impact as per now.

The technical details are not yet known.

It is not yet known how the newest generation Diesel engines built by VW and other manufacturers fare under real-word conditions.

It is not yet known which measures will be taken by regulators across various countries.

Very much will depend on how Volkswagen deals with their customers to rebuild trust.

Currently, there are lot of known unknowns, and the only thing that you could evaluate is a worst case scenario, which will probably not become reality.

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Fat Tails View Post
You cannot calculate the impact as per now.

The technical details are not yet known.

It is not yet known how the newest generation Diesel engines built by VW and other manufacturers fare under real-word conditions.

It is not yet known which measures will be taken by regulators across various countries.

Very much will depend on how Volkswagen deals with their customers to rebuild trust.

Currently, there are lot of known unknowns, and the only thing that you could evaluate is a worst case scenario, which will probably not become reality.

Even a bracket worst/optimal would be already insightfull...

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Fat Tails View Post
You cannot calculate the impact as per now.
...
Currently, there are lot of known unknowns, and the only thing that you could evaluate is a worst case scenario, which will probably not become reality.

It is easy to see how bad it might become, and so get caught up in the worst case scenario. It is a very good point that the "worst case" probably will not come to pass.

For one simple thing, the governments involved are not going to deliberately destroy VW, nor the whole German auto industry. They will discipline them, perhaps severely, but they will not force them to go under.

Loss of customer trust probably will be a larger issue, but there will be limits there as well.

It may not be excessive to think that VW may end up merging or being sold, but it will not just disappear. And even a merger probably is more than will actually happen.

Otherwise, I certainly agree that it is too early to tell.

Bob.

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In an announcement today of VW it was said, that if the proposed solution is accepted by the authorities, then the recall of cars will start in January 2016 and will last all 2016. If the proposed solution is accepted the necessary parts will be order. For some models the impact is limited, but for some other models the impact is much bigger. All works will be free of charge for the customer...

Imagine the amount this will cost (on top of all regulatory fines/penalties).

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the facade tell that the recall of vehicules will begin in July 2016...
The action takes at least ONE year.
(source spiegel.de)

Of course with this pushing back - some 10-20% of those "old" vehicules
are out of service - thus avoiding VW a lot of extra work.

BUT:
VW says they need only to reprogram the software - which in fact omits the line
"if motor is not under inspection - then activate fake procedure..."
which could be done in minutes - yes?
VW says that they need to run tests on it until end of 2015.
And then start first official repairs in 2016.
Answer is: the farther the "real updates" are - the more people have forgotten
about the scandal.

Haha - this is going to be a big scam again...
If it is really only depending some LINE of software - why haven't they done it from
second day?
If they need to install extra equipment on catalysator or other motor parts - then
the cost will jump to the moon...
And for sure they will not meet the harsh US limits given 2009 to 2015 for EURO5
standards.
Last word:
VW CAN not fulfill needed limits within a year on their old Typ EA 189 motor.
POINT



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How the VW Scandal Could Get as Big as the '08 Financial Crisis - Fortune

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the facade tell that the recall of vehicules will begin in July 2016...
The action takes at least ONE year.
(source spiegel.de)

Of course with this pushing back - some 10-20% of those "old" vehicules
are out of service - thus avoiding VW a lot of extra work.

BUT:
VW says they need only to reprogram the software - which in fact omits the line
"if motor is not under inspection - then activate fake procedure..."
which could be done in minutes - yes?
VW says that they need to run tests on it until end of 2015.
And then start first official repairs in 2016.
Answer is: the farther the "real updates" are - the more people have forgotten
about the scandal.

Haha - this is going to be a big scam again...
If it is really only depending some LINE of software - why haven't they done it from
second day?
If the need to install extra equipment on catalysator or other motor parts - then
the cost will jump to the moon...
And for sure they will not meet the harsh US limits given 2009 to 2015 for EURO5
standards.
Last word:
VW CAN not fulfill needed limits within a year on their old EA123 motor.
POINT



GFIs1

The time lag is ideal for the authorities to find out how other manufacturers manage to meet the US limits
when their cars regularly need double as much Diesel (or eg. gas as potential next target) as VWs today

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Some questions can be answered with simple logic.

(1) Volkswagen engineers cheated, because they were not able to meet the NOx emission standards with their main Diesel engine EA 189 back in 2008. I bet that it would have been impossible to meet the lower US limits without adding expensive NOx storage devices and/or SCR devices which require Diesel exhaust fluid.

(2) Since 2008 there has been technical progress in reducing NOx emissions from Diesel engines. The newer EURO 6 norm imposes lower NOx limits than the old EURO 5 norm. It should therefore be relatitely simple to retrofit the cars in Europe to comply with the specifications that they had to meet.

(3) For the 8 million cars running in Europe it should therefore be possible to fix the problem

-> via a software update (cheap, but probably limited to engines with Bosch equipment)
-> via a hardware upgrade (including Diesel injection equipment)
-> via retrofit of NOx storage converters (expensive)

Of course I am not able to judge which type of upgrade will be necessary. Also I am not able to judge which will be the impact on fuel consumption and horse power, and whether this will require to compensate customers.

(4) Things will be more difficult in the US, as I doubt that there will be an easy technical fix. The target is much more difficult to attain. Also US jurisdiction is unpredictable, and often ridiculous. Therefore Volkswagen has a much higher risk from the 480,000 cars sold in the US compared to the 9 million cars sold elsewhere.

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Fat Tails View Post
Some questions can be answered with simple logic.

(1) Volkswagen engineers cheated, because they were not able to meet the NOx emission standards with their main Diesel engine EA 189 back in 2008. I bet that it would have been impossible to meet the lower US limits without adding expensive NOx storage devices and/or SCR devices which require Diesel exhaust fluid.

(2) Since 2008 there has been technical progress in reducing NOx emissions from Diesel engines. The newer EURO 6 norm imposes lower NOx limits than the old EURO 5 norm. It should therefore be relatitely simple to retrofit the cars in Europe to comply with the specifications that they had to meet.

(3) For the 8 million cars running in Europe it should therefore be possible to fix the problem

-> via a software update (cheap, but probably limited to engines with Bosch equipment)
-> via a hardware upgrade (including Diesel injection equipment)
-> via retrofit of NOx storage converters (expensive)

Of course I am not able to judge which type of upgrade will be necessary. Also I am not able to judge which will be the impact on fuel consumption and horse power, and whether this will require to compensate customers.

(4) Things will be more difficult in the US, as I doubt that there will be an easy technical fix. The target is much more difficult to attain. Also US jurisdiction is unpredictable, and often ridiculous. Therefore Volkswagen has a much higher risk from the 480,000 cars sold in the US compared to the 9 million cars sold elsewhere.

I scratch my head about the possibility of getting this retrofit done in the time frame stated by VW...it will be an amazing feat for VW's supply base. If there is equipment to be added, not just software, then VW is asking their supply base to produce an extra 8 million odd units in less then a year over their current daily production requirements. Some one will be working weekends & holidays....

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Of course I am not able to judge which type of upgrade will be necessary. Also I am not able to judge which will be the impact on fuel consumption and horse power, and whether this will require to compensate customers.

Even we are not experts in this fields we need to see the facts:
1) EU is having quite strict rules for admitting new products in the markets (EU first)
2) the guarantees for a manufacturer are now 2 years in all countries (which makes it harder for "cheap products"
3) the jurisdiction lately on fake products of such that do not meet regulations is now much more for the client
than the manufacturer
4) some very high fines can be seen in the last 5 years (even accepted by highest courts) be it in financial area
or manufacturing
5) if it comes to compensation in case of a single VW out of that series
- with wrong data given - than measured
- with less worth for resale
- with a threat of giving back tax reduction on the model or subvention to the state
- with the undergoing inspections / reparations when you can not use the car
etc...
Looking at all this (list not complete) one sees that the manufacturer has to fill IN the box what he writes ON the box.
If he does not - then compensation for ONE car can be very high - IN EUROPE.
And such one law case can be the number to be multiplied by all concerned models...

GFIs1

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More and more unraveling:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/08/business/international/volkswagen-diesel-emiss...top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Bob.

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R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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I think 98% of the involved VW customers are more concerned about a loss in power and dynamic. The don't care about the emissions. So the hype isn't backed by the car owners.

But i think VW owners can buy the old firmware back at later time from tuning related companies. Then this will be the most heavily tested chip tuning firmware ever.

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That one looks exactly like the car my son is driving. It is over 20 years old and has a gasoline engine.

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German police entered VW headquarters today, in search of documents and computer equipment
that can hold proof, of who is responsible for installing the fraude software in the cars...

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Fat Tails View Post
That one looks exactly like the car my son is driving. It is over 20 years old and has a gasoline engine.

Get used to these memes and comments, they will never go away... Makes no difference if they are accurate or not, VW screwed up.

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Big Mike View Post
Get used to these memes and comments, they will never go away... Makes no difference if they are accurate or not, VW screwed up.

Mike

I was making fun of it ....

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Major conflict of interest...

Car emissions test body receives 70% of cash from motor industry | Business | The Guardian

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No different than Congress receiving all of its money from the people that write the laws, and they vote on.

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According to Bloomberg
EPA's New Volkswagen Probe May Reveal Failure to Disclose - Bloomberg Business
another Defeat Device is under investigation by EPA in USA!
This device has been used in cars of different years. The working pattern is not known.
The result so far is that the 2016 diesel models in USA do not have a certification yet.
If the new found device is also fraudulent then the scandal will go into a new round.

GFIs1

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will need more than only a software update to reach standards
Mister Horn declared in his answers at the US congress.
Volkswagen rechnet mit hohem Verlust*- Phaeton-Nachfolger gestrichen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Out of 500000 VW diesel cars in USA these 430000 will need a special katalysator and eventually more devices.

If this is true for US cars then the big rest of the 11 million in Europe will have the same problem...

As a result VW brand needs to save money now and has cancelled the project of the new Phaeton immediately.
As well some budgets for public relations and some high donations to sports clubs are affected.

GFIs1

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VW Loans for Clean Engine Development Under Scrutiny, EIB Says - Bloomberg Business

Hoyer of European Investment Bank EIB said:
“If we determine that the loans that we have extended to drive engine developments have not contributed to combating climate change, but have possibly done the contrary, then that is a reputational problem also for us,” he said. Hoyer suggested that the bank was unlikely to request the loans be repaid, saying it had no interest in seeking to “wreck” the company."

The outstanding sum given to VW since 1990 sums up to 1,8 billion EUR.

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S&P downgrades rating VW
This will increase the cost on the debt

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As VW has a lot of cash and set already a sum aside for the cases on the line
they could in such case try to get out of the debts first. If the costs of those
would rise...

But a downgrade will have immediate negative impact on the stocks...
And for new debts of course - if there are any to be made.

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GFIs1 View Post
As VW has a lot of cash and set already a sum aside for the cases on the line
they could in such case try to get out of the debts first. If the costs of those
would rise...

What about forced buybacks? That could add up quickly.

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Big Mike View Post
What about forced buybacks? That could add up quickly.

Mike

As mentioned in an article (earlier in the thread) VW has around 80 billion with all daughter companies
and brands before going broke. They set aside 7,5 billion for the cases in next quarter. 20 billion in cash will be
enough to handle the EIB debt.

For sure the unsold cars, the reparations and the eventually unsolved problems on older cars will be
a heavy burden and the long uncounted fights on the courts are most unpredictable.
This can be the death for a large dinosaur like VW.

GFIs1

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On a 'lighter note', Leonardo DiCaprio is going to produce a film about the VW scandal, Paramount and Appian Way (owned by DiCaprio) bought the rights to the book that Jack Ewing is going to write... Actors and producer not yet known

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