NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





VW scandal and impact on German economy


Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one GFIs1 with 244 posts (381 thanks)
    2. looks_two rleplae with 50 posts (71 thanks)
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 25 posts (53 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Fat Tails with 23 posts (51 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Fat Tails with 2.2 thanks per post
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 2.1 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 GFIs1 with 1.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 rleplae with 1.4 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 160,792 views
    2. thumb_up 759 thanks given
    3. group 21 followers
    1. forum 461 posts
    2. attach_file 28 attachments




 
Search this Thread

VW scandal and impact on German economy

  #31 (permalink)
 
rleplae's Avatar
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Trading: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
Posts: 3,003 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 2,442
Thanks Received: 5,863


Ryland View Post
Perhaps some car nerd with too much time on their hands did a DIY and posted the results on some unnoticed out-of-the-way car forum somewhere on the web...

I guess this should not be impossible ?

Alibaba link

Sounds like a 600$ device could get you started, at least to do some preliminary factfinding


Some more complicated university research (could give guidance)

Thesis

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
Are there any eval firms that allow you to sink to your …
Traders Hideout
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
61 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
39 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
26 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
18 thanks
  #32 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
who cares
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: nobody interested
Broker: none
Trading: forget about it
Posts: 6,921 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 6,181
Thanks Received: 15,562

As the company of VW has admitted last week to have cheated on regulations concerning
the tests - there is NO doubt about real fraud.

Some countries have taken action against VW. Every hour the list gets longer.
To have it summed up here the countries that have started:

- USA / California (different law actions)
- Switzerland (stopped selling new cars)
- Germany (different law actions - looking to stop license)
- France (law actions against fraud)
- Italy (checking cars to eventually cancel license)
- Norway (checking imported cars on fraudulent software)
- EU (wants from every country results of used fraudulent software in their country)
- GB (wants from all countries to check the diesel cars to see if they are within margins and publish the results)
- South Korea (control the vehicules - 59000 in the country - threee different models)
- India (making tests for fraudulent software on mentioned cars)
- Mexico (testing if motors were fabricated in Puebla plant with fraudulent software. A big part was exported to USA)

list not ending here - of course

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #33 (permalink)
 
ratfink's Avatar
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TST/Rithmic
Trading: YM/Gold
Posts: 3,633 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 17,423
Thanks Received: 8,425


The market (as always) was prescient..


Travel Well
Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #34 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
who cares
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: nobody interested
Broker: none
Trading: forget about it
Posts: 6,921 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 6,181
Thanks Received: 15,562

Often with large companies the question comes up if that one is TOO BIG to fail....

In the case of VW we need to see the consequences:
1) the client: has decided to buy a car from a good manufacturer - having knowledge to make
motors consuming less and being nature friendly. For this the consumer was ready to pay more
for that specific car and did not buy another...
2) the country: giving license on computerized tests (that were all ok...) for ALL imported cars
with same motor. The country was never assuming that the tests were all done fraudulently
3) the non incurred people: assuming to have latest technology in the streets - not fearing to
be intoxicated by passing cars
4) the legislative: if today's technology is best on its way - one can decrease the margins for
all market competitors
5) the competitors: if VW "meets" the standards - and the company itself has no means to
meet those standards too - they will leave the field to all others...

Conclusion: ALL and everyone was cheated - and nearly everyone has lost money, belief,
health, and much more

There is NOTHING positive to see that a company following such global fraud - that it can not be
taken responsible for their actions...
If every single customer, importer, country, competitor will sue VW for their scam - then
VW company has to close down the whole production in very short time - as liquidity
will drain extremely.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #35 (permalink)
 
bobwest's Avatar
 bobwest 
Western Florida
Site Moderator
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 8,162 since Jan 2013
Thanks Given: 57,341
Thanks Received: 26,267


ratfink View Post
The market (as always) was prescient..


Very well said.

Basically, somebody knew....

Bob.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #36 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
who cares
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: nobody interested
Broker: none
Trading: forget about it
Posts: 6,921 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 6,181
Thanks Received: 15,562


ratfink View Post
The market (as always) was prescient..

oooohhh @rat:

Now it looks it does not matter what german stock you buy now: BMW, Daimler, VW -
Same price - Same shit?

Have a great end of weekend
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #37 (permalink)
 
ratfink's Avatar
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TST/Rithmic
Trading: YM/Gold
Posts: 3,633 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 17,423
Thanks Received: 8,425


GFIs1 View Post
oooohhh @rat:

Now it looks it does not matter what german stock you buy now: BMW, Daimler, VW -
Same price - Same shit?

Have a great end of weekend
GFIs1

Well I guess some are still shittier than others and I dare say Santa will pick some up sometime.

Cheers

Travel Well
Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #38 (permalink)
 Ryland 
San Francisco, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 35 since Jan 2014
Thanks Given: 123
Thanks Received: 82


Quoting 
I guess this should not be impossible ?

Alibaba link

Sounds like a 600$ device could get you started, at least to do some preliminary factfinding


Some more complicated university research (could give guidance)

Thesis

I'm not sure that sensor would let me easily test real-world emissions, if there was sneaky code to monitor when the car was moving. The Portable Emissions Testing Sensors I've found are things like this and this, and their websites don't even have a price, you have to e-mail for a quote, which is usually not a sign of a low priced product in my experience.

Also, cannot read the paper as I only sprechen about drei words of Duetsche.

Addendum:

So ICCT has apparently been raising hell about this issue in general terms for years, though they only ran specific tests in the last year or so: http://theicct.org/laboratory-versus-real-world-discrepancies-in-nox-emissions-in-the-eu/

Also - and this is more of a fun fact than anything directly relevant to the future of this issue: two weeks elapsed between the publication of their white paper slamming VW and the EPA notice of Clean Air Act violation/VW stock plunge. And there was a less detailed report published last May that didn't name specific cars, but did discuss specific manufacturers.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #39 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
who cares
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: nobody interested
Broker: none
Trading: forget about it
Posts: 6,921 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 6,181
Thanks Received: 15,562

As described earlier - in Switzerland VW cars with manipulated motor software have no
longer a license. This is for cars built 2009 to 2014.
A owner of such a car can still drive further.

But:
The ministery has clarified yesterday that at the moment of changing owner - the car
will not get the license and can not be used by the new owner.
This means that 180000 cars in Switzerland can not be sold as second hand vehicule.
So all those cars are worth ZERO and have no value any longer.
Bad news for all drivers who thought they will not being affected.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #40 (permalink)
 Ryland 
San Francisco, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 35 since Jan 2014
Thanks Given: 123
Thanks Received: 82


Besides potential plays with other bad actors in the auto space, or the interesting question of who will take up whatever market share VW loses... given the massive potential effects to Germany's economy - and ultimately Europe/the world's economy the question I'm struggling with is this:

At what point (and in what way) does this become a diplomatic/international issue, and have its course decided as such by elected politicians rather than un-elected civil servants (who are mostly in control at the moment, I suppose)? I imagine the bureaucracies of different countries would probably inflict death by a thousand cuts, they certainly already got VW bleeding.

Perhaps Merkel goes around begging/threatening, with predictions of the German economy sinking (and taking all you suckers with it) should the worst case scenario occur for VW. Basically, unless some coordinated multi-national deal gets made, I don't see how VW gets out of this.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on June 27, 2023


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts