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VW scandal and impact on German economy
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VW scandal and impact on German economy

  #71 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Agree totally @bobwest:

The heads of the development departments DO KNOW about the stuff...
And if they are kicked out - in sight of decision making - this may be good.
But still: the visionary people like for example Piech are giving their
point of view with all details from top down...
And that only can work as long this chain is still intact!
People on lower levels (even with huge know how) will not have that impact
for the whole company.

GFIs1

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  #72 (permalink)
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  #73 (permalink)
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Does anybody have a calculated guess of the impact on the trade balance for Germany ?
and for Europe ?

What would be the impact on the € as a stand alone event
and if their would be contamination to other car producers ?

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  #74 (permalink)
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rleplae View Post
Does anybody have a calculated guess of the impact on the trade balance for Germany ?
and for Europe ?

What would be the impact on the € as a stand alone event
and if their would be contamination to other car producers ?


You cannot calculate the impact as per now.

The technical details are not yet known.

It is not yet known how the newest generation Diesel engines built by VW and other manufacturers fare under real-word conditions.

It is not yet known which measures will be taken by regulators across various countries.

Very much will depend on how Volkswagen deals with their customers to rebuild trust.

Currently, there are lot of known unknowns, and the only thing that you could evaluate is a worst case scenario, which will probably not become reality.

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  #75 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
You cannot calculate the impact as per now.

The technical details are not yet known.

It is not yet known how the newest generation Diesel engines built by VW and other manufacturers fare under real-word conditions.

It is not yet known which measures will be taken by regulators across various countries.

Very much will depend on how Volkswagen deals with their customers to rebuild trust.

Currently, there are lot of known unknowns, and the only thing that you could evaluate is a worst case scenario, which will probably not become reality.

Even a bracket worst/optimal would be already insightfull...

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  #76 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
You cannot calculate the impact as per now.
...
Currently, there are lot of known unknowns, and the only thing that you could evaluate is a worst case scenario, which will probably not become reality.

It is easy to see how bad it might become, and so get caught up in the worst case scenario. It is a very good point that the "worst case" probably will not come to pass.

For one simple thing, the governments involved are not going to deliberately destroy VW, nor the whole German auto industry. They will discipline them, perhaps severely, but they will not force them to go under.

Loss of customer trust probably will be a larger issue, but there will be limits there as well.

It may not be excessive to think that VW may end up merging or being sold, but it will not just disappear. And even a merger probably is more than will actually happen.

Otherwise, I certainly agree that it is too early to tell.

Bob.

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In an announcement today of VW it was said, that if the proposed solution is accepted by the authorities, then the recall of cars will start in January 2016 and will last all 2016. If the proposed solution is accepted the necessary parts will be order. For some models the impact is limited, but for some other models the impact is much bigger. All works will be free of charge for the customer...

Imagine the amount this will cost (on top of all regulatory fines/penalties).

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  #78 (permalink)
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Some voices behind

the facade tell that the recall of vehicules will begin in July 2016...
The action takes at least ONE year.
(source spiegel.de)

Of course with this pushing back - some 10-20% of those "old" vehicules
are out of service - thus avoiding VW a lot of extra work.

BUT:
VW says they need only to reprogram the software - which in fact omits the line
"if motor is not under inspection - then activate fake procedure..."
which could be done in minutes - yes?
VW says that they need to run tests on it until end of 2015.
And then start first official repairs in 2016.
Answer is: the farther the "real updates" are - the more people have forgotten
about the scandal.

Haha - this is going to be a big scam again...
If it is really only depending some LINE of software - why haven't they done it from
second day?
If they need to install extra equipment on catalysator or other motor parts - then
the cost will jump to the moon...
And for sure they will not meet the harsh US limits given 2009 to 2015 for EURO5
standards.
Last word:
VW CAN not fulfill needed limits within a year on their old Typ EA 189 motor.
POINT



GFIs1


Last edited by GFIs1; October 7th, 2015 at 01:04 PM.
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  #79 (permalink)
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How the VW Scandal Could Get as Big as the '08 Financial Crisis - Fortune

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  #80 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
the facade tell that the recall of vehicules will begin in July 2016...
The action takes at least ONE year.
(source spiegel.de)

Of course with this pushing back - some 10-20% of those "old" vehicules
are out of service - thus avoiding VW a lot of extra work.

BUT:
VW says they need only to reprogram the software - which in fact omits the line
"if motor is not under inspection - then activate fake procedure..."
which could be done in minutes - yes?
VW says that they need to run tests on it until end of 2015.
And then start first official repairs in 2016.
Answer is: the farther the "real updates" are - the more people have forgotten
about the scandal.

Haha - this is going to be a big scam again...
If it is really only depending some LINE of software - why haven't they done it from
second day?
If the need to install extra equipment on catalysator or other motor parts - then
the cost will jump to the moon...
And for sure they will not meet the harsh US limits given 2009 to 2015 for EURO5
standards.
Last word:
VW CAN not fulfill needed limits within a year on their old EA123 motor.
POINT



GFIs1

The time lag is ideal for the authorities to find out how other manufacturers manage to meet the US limits
when their cars regularly need double as much Diesel (or eg. gas as potential next target) as VWs today

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