VW scandal and impact on German economy - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


VW scandal and impact on German economy
Updated: Views / Replies:16,514 / 338
Created: by rleplae Attachments:27

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 27  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

VW scandal and impact on German economy

  #51 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker/Data: IB / DTN
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 4,049 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,742 given, 7,428 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Zondor View Post
This is a problem for the reputation of the entire German auto industry, not just for Volkswagen.
GM, the owner of Opel, may get dragged into this.

The supplier of the software for the motors in german cars is BOSCH.
Every car maker uses parts or them...

As mentioned in earlier post - cars with larger motors are not affected.
Daimler (Mercedes), BMW normally have larger motors with better NOx reduction. These work
under heavy tests without problems.
PSA with many small motos will have the same problem as VW group faced.
Only tests under real conditions will bring acceptable results.

GFIs1

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
  #52 (permalink)
Elite Member
Golden Bay, New Zealand
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 110 since May 2012
Thanks: 589 given, 173 received


GFIs1 View Post
If your car needs 7l /100km instead of 3,5 (as shown in prospect) - your calculation for driving will be most different.

It's amazing that it took this long for it to come out - all these million drivers were using 2x the fuel than what they expected. And with all the various Car Magazine test reviews, car forum enthusiasts (they even have them for Skoda), they never made a loud enough voice for the problem to emerge earlier.

Reply With Quote
 
  #53 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,605 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,547 given, 11,007 received



sixtyseven View Post
It's amazing that it took this long for it to come out - all these million drivers were using 2x the fuel than what they expected. And with all the various Car Magazine test reviews, car forum enthusiasts (they even have them for Skoda), they never made a loud enough voice for the problem to emerge earlier.

No, they actually wen't using 2x the fuel they expected.... They were producing many, many times the pollution they expected, but the fuel use and horsepower output was good.

Now the problem is, that the VW "fix" that allowed their pollution numbers to look good when the regulators tested them did so by reducing the fuel economy and the output. So if that software fix is put in as a standard now, then the drivers will have bad fuel usage, and low pickup too.

Up to now, those drivers were perfectly happy. Now, they probably won't be.

Bob.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
  #54 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,618 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,223 given, 25,449 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Trade off between CO2 and NOX emissions


GFIs1 View Post
The FRAUD does not disappear while installing new software over the old one:
Simple clients bought these cars understanding that they are "Best Of Technology",
using 3,5l diesel per 100km and will be best for nature ;-)
If VW is putting the original "cleaning" back to work - the same car uses
suddenly 6 to 7 l diesel per 100km and is much less powerful than seen in
prospects.
All the good numbers evaporate - every client feels cheated again!


The technical problem here is that if you wish to achieve maximum fuel efficiency for a car, you need to use more oxygen in the combustion chamber. The higher content of oxygen means

-> that next to all carbon atoms are burned (low emissions in sooth and carbon monoxide)
-> that fuel efficiency is increased
-> that the exhausts still contain between 5% and 20% of oxygen

With a surplus of oxygen in the exhaust it is basically impossible to cut down NOx with simple NOx storage catalytic converters. Other technical solutions such as SCR (selective katalytic reduction) need to be applied. This process requires the use of DEF (Diesel exhaust fluid), which is an aqueous urea solution.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


For small cars the SCR devices are rather expensive.

I am curious to understand how the other manufacturers of Diesel cars coped with the problem.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
  #55 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,605 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,547 given, 11,007 received


Fat Tails View Post
For small cars the SCR devices are rather expensive.

I am curious to understand how the other manufacturers of Diesel cars coped with the problem.

Well, this may be cynical, but I think the answer, for the smaller Diesels at least, probably was that they found a good way to cheat as well....

Bob.

Reply With Quote
 
  #56 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,618 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,223 given, 25,449 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


bobwest View Post
Well, this may be cynical, but I think the answer, for the smaller Diesels at least, probably was that they found a good way to cheat as well....

Bob.

One of the main problems here are the laboratory tests used by governments for testing. The New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) dates back to 1997. As the car manufacturers knew the test, they focused on designing cars that passed the test, not cars that were complying with the regulations that were meant to be implemented with the test.

I think there are two way of cheating:

active cheating: recognize test and switch off cleaning devices when the test is not being performed

passive cheating: design exhaust cleaning devices in a way that they are optimized for the test without caring about the output under regular driving conditions

I think all manufacturers of Diesel cars found a more or less practical solution to pass the tests. The question is how far they went to cheat.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
  #57 (permalink)
Elite Member
Omer עומר / Israel י
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker/Data: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Favorite Futures: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
 
rleplae's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,310 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 1,625 given, 3,417 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

A publication shows that also 1.8 million small trucks are impacted by this fraud software

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to rleplae for this post:
 
  #58 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker/Data: IB / DTN
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 4,049 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,742 given, 7,428 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

VW update

Calculations of damage in this case of VW fraud are going up to 40 billion Euro up to now.

Some cash and worth calculations on the VW group:
20 billion are held in cash or stocks
VW could pay up to 80 billion (including selling brands like Bugatti, Porsche and others)
before going bust.
Of course the company can not go forward as planned as long all that threat are not from the table -
and that takes years. VW is the first large german car builder now being out of the serious manufacturers.

VW had given order in year 2005 to use fraudulent software to reach US conditions to obtain license.
That came directly from Wolfsburg - the central of development.
No real excuses for that - even for later management - as all documents were at hand.

GFIs1

more to come

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
  #59 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,618 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,223 given, 25,449 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


PeakGrowth View Post
You literally know everything @Fat Tails it's almost scary.

I think VW will go under, or broken up and sold for parts.

This is bad, I got 3 VW's in the family and one of them is diesel, my almost 3 yr old niece rolls in the diesel

This could be the end of diesel, if every authority around the world retests all diesels from all manufacturers in real world tests (and not on rollers) and they find they are all doing it - I wouldn't be surprised if they all are to some degree.


Actually I do not think that this is the end of the Diesel engine.

Most of the Diesel cars that Volkswagen sold were sold in Europe. The offensive EA189 engine, which was fitted to 11 million vehicles, is a Euro 5 engine. The Euro 5 limit for NOx stands at 180 mg/km. I think that it should be comparatively easy to fix all Diesel cars with the EA189 engine in a way that they pass the old European limits of 180mg/km.

The new Euro 6 Diesel motors are (apparently) not using a defeat device. The Euro 6 limit has been set at 80 mg/km.

The main problem are US sales. In the US the limits were set at around 31 mg/km, and obviously it is much more of a challenge to retrofit the Diesel cars in the US. Let me repeat this:

NOx limit in Europe for Euro 5: 180 mg/km (easily achievable)
NOx limit in Australia (Euro 4): 250 mg/km
NOx limit in the US: 31 mg/km (requires redesign/retrofit of exhaust treatment)

By the way my son is driving an old Volkswagen - very robust - from 1995 with a petrol engine. At that time the Euro 2 limit allowed for 500 mg/km NOx for petrol cars, which is 2.5 times as high than the limit for Eur0 5 Diesel cars.

Average emissions of passenger cars in the US were 870 mg/km in the year 2000. (Source EPA). I think there is a lot of hype around the case.

However, I consider it a criminal offense that VW installed a defeat device to manipulate real world emissions. It will take some time to find the guys who are responsible. Let us see whether they will be jailed.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
  #60 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,091 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,192 given, 82,521 received



Fat Tails View Post
I think that it should be comparatively easy to fix all Diesel cars with the EA189 engine in a way that they pass the old European limits of 180mg/km.

I don't doubt the cars can be modified to pass emissions without the defeat device. Isn't the question under what circumstances, in other words with how much loss of horsepower?

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > VW scandal and impact on German economy

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

Monte Carlo Analysis w/Kevin Davey

Elite only
 

How-to Choose a Futures Broker w/Lynette Lim @ Phillip Capital

Sep 20
 

Alternative Views on Traditional Tools w/Rhonda Jones

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
France Faces 'Devastating Scandal' as Economy Stalls Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 April 9th, 2013 04:10 AM
Libor Scandal: Why Criminal Charges Are Now Likely Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 July 23rd, 2012 04:20 PM
Vatican faces widening of leaks scandal kbit News and Current Events 0 May 27th, 2012 09:19 PM
G-20 Demands German Gold To Keep Eurozone Intact; German Central Bank Tells G-20 Wher Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 6th, 2011 02:00 AM
Fed Poised to Aid Economy, But Impact Is Cloudy Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 2nd, 2010 10:40 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:02 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-09-19 in 0.09 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.159.64.172