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VW scandal and impact on German economy


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VW scandal and impact on German economy

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  #31 (permalink)
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Ryland View Post
Perhaps some car nerd with too much time on their hands did a DIY and posted the results on some unnoticed out-of-the-way car forum somewhere on the web...

I guess this should not be impossible ?

Alibaba link

Sounds like a 600$ device could get you started, at least to do some preliminary factfinding


Some more complicated university research (could give guidance)

Thesis

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  #32 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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As the company of VW has admitted last week to have cheated on regulations concerning
the tests - there is NO doubt about real fraud.

Some countries have taken action against VW. Every hour the list gets longer.
To have it summed up here the countries that have started:

- USA / California (different law actions)
- Switzerland (stopped selling new cars)
- Germany (different law actions - looking to stop license)
- France (law actions against fraud)
- Italy (checking cars to eventually cancel license)
- Norway (checking imported cars on fraudulent software)
- EU (wants from every country results of used fraudulent software in their country)
- GB (wants from all countries to check the diesel cars to see if they are within margins and publish the results)
- South Korea (control the vehicules - 59000 in the country - threee different models)
- India (making tests for fraudulent software on mentioned cars)
- Mexico (testing if motors were fabricated in Puebla plant with fraudulent software. A big part was exported to USA)

list not ending here - of course

GFIs1

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  #33 (permalink)
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The market (as always) was prescient..


Travel Well
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  #34 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Often with large companies the question comes up if that one is TOO BIG to fail....

In the case of VW we need to see the consequences:
1) the client: has decided to buy a car from a good manufacturer - having knowledge to make
motors consuming less and being nature friendly. For this the consumer was ready to pay more
for that specific car and did not buy another...
2) the country: giving license on computerized tests (that were all ok...) for ALL imported cars
with same motor. The country was never assuming that the tests were all done fraudulently
3) the non incurred people: assuming to have latest technology in the streets - not fearing to
be intoxicated by passing cars
4) the legislative: if today's technology is best on its way - one can decrease the margins for
all market competitors
5) the competitors: if VW "meets" the standards - and the company itself has no means to
meet those standards too - they will leave the field to all others...

Conclusion: ALL and everyone was cheated - and nearly everyone has lost money, belief,
health, and much more

There is NOTHING positive to see that a company following such global fraud - that it can not be
taken responsible for their actions...
If every single customer, importer, country, competitor will sue VW for their scam - then
VW company has to close down the whole production in very short time - as liquidity
will drain extremely.

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  #35 (permalink)
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ratfink View Post
The market (as always) was prescient..


Very well said.

Basically, somebody knew....

Bob.

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  #36 (permalink)
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ratfink View Post
The market (as always) was prescient..

oooohhh @rat:

Now it looks it does not matter what german stock you buy now: BMW, Daimler, VW -
Same price - Same shit?

Have a great end of weekend
GFIs1

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  #37 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
oooohhh @rat:

Now it looks it does not matter what german stock you buy now: BMW, Daimler, VW -
Same price - Same shit?

Have a great end of weekend
GFIs1

Well I guess some are still shittier than others and I dare say Santa will pick some up sometime.

Cheers

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  #38 (permalink)
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Quoting 
I guess this should not be impossible ?

Alibaba link

Sounds like a 600$ device could get you started, at least to do some preliminary factfinding


Some more complicated university research (could give guidance)

Thesis

I'm not sure that sensor would let me easily test real-world emissions, if there was sneaky code to monitor when the car was moving. The Portable Emissions Testing Sensors I've found are things like this and this, and their websites don't even have a price, you have to e-mail for a quote, which is usually not a sign of a low priced product in my experience.

Also, cannot read the paper as I only sprechen about drei words of Duetsche.

Addendum:

So ICCT has apparently been raising hell about this issue in general terms for years, though they only ran specific tests in the last year or so: https://theicct.org/blogs/staff/laboratory-versus-real-world-discrepancies-nox-emissions-eu

Also - and this is more of a fun fact than anything directly relevant to the future of this issue: two weeks elapsed between the publication of their white paper slamming VW and the EPA notice of Clean Air Act violation/VW stock plunge. And there was a less detailed report published last May that didn't name specific cars, but did discuss specific manufacturers.

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  #39 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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As described earlier - in Switzerland VW cars with manipulated motor software have no
longer a license. This is for cars built 2009 to 2014.
A owner of such a car can still drive further.

But:
The ministery has clarified yesterday that at the moment of changing owner - the car
will not get the license and can not be used by the new owner.
This means that 180000 cars in Switzerland can not be sold as second hand vehicule.
So all those cars are worth ZERO and have no value any longer.
Bad news for all drivers who thought they will not being affected.

GFIs1

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  #40 (permalink)
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Besides potential plays with other bad actors in the auto space, or the interesting question of who will take up whatever market share VW loses... given the massive potential effects to Germany's economy - and ultimately Europe/the world's economy the question I'm struggling with is this:

At what point (and in what way) does this become a diplomatic/international issue, and have its course decided as such by elected politicians rather than un-elected civil servants (who are mostly in control at the moment, I suppose)? I imagine the bureaucracies of different countries would probably inflict death by a thousand cuts, they certainly already got VW bleeding.

Perhaps Merkel goes around begging/threatening, with predictions of the German economy sinking (and taking all you suckers with it) should the worst case scenario occur for VW. Basically, unless some coordinated multi-national deal gets made, I don't see how VW gets out of this.

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