Permabull vs Permabear - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Permabull vs Permabear
Updated: Views / Replies:1,273 / 14
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:1

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 1  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Permabull vs Permabear

  #1 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,352 given, 83,234 received

Permabull vs Permabear

Right now (in a bull market) are you a permabull or a permabear? Vote and discuss.

Right now in this bull market, are you a permabull or a permabear?

Total votes: 131
 


Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.


Last edited by Big Mike; September 15th, 2015 at 01:54 PM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,352 given, 83,234 received


I made some recent posts on my thread about this subject, so I will cross-post a couple of them here:


Big Mike View Post
So far today we have most the stars aligned. It's a trend up day, ctick hod corresponds with price hod, most asset classes are supportive, even yen is moving higher now.

The move higher has been on lower volume, as is typically the case. ZH always laments that, but the fact is most continuation moves are on lower volume. Now FOMC is going to bring some volume, and it could also cause some short capitulation should we break out above 93 SPX (which is roughly 83 Dec ES).

If FOMC is viewed as bearish, then the opposite is true and a test of 1900 or below is possible.

Frankly, I am bullish. I am a permabull by heart, and honestly I can't understand why anyone would be anything but a permabull. I don't care how rigged the markets are, all you need to do is plot a historical chart and I think it would be idiotic to be anything but a permabull.

Instead of fighting the insanity that is the market, just play the game, and take your profits and put them in asset classes that are not as vulnerable to the collapse that will one day change the world. Until that time, don't fight it. Be bullish!

Mike


Big Mike View Post
Let me qualify that -- we are still in a bull market. We experienced a correction, but it's still a bull market. By definition, correction is 10%, and new trend is 20%. Facts are that 10% corrections happen all the time in a trending market.

Until we actually see a bear market, there is no reason to be overly bearish!

Mike


Big Mike View Post
Let's pretend you are bearish right now with a short position. You are probably sweating it quite a bit, and you will be near panic levels should we be trading anywhere near 83 going into the announcement -- because you realize you could quickly be run over.

The market likes to cause pain to the weakest players, and right now, those are the shorts.

Now, it's not all roses. Above 2040 we have months of supply that is going to be extremely difficult to break through. In fact, I would imagine the only way we do break through all of it is if The Fed does something that is viewed as QE4. And you know what, I think they will.

Mike


Big Mike View Post
Absolutely. Reading ZH will tell you that those permabears are end-of-the-world types with physical gold and bunkers. That scenario is likely to unfold one day, but will you be alive when it does? These people spend a great deal of their energy betting against the world, and frankly the governments of the world have enough money and power to keep this up for quite a while.

It's much smarter to be a permabull. But it doesn't mean you have to agree with the policy decisions, it just means you recognize the market is going to move higher over time! Profit from it, and then take your profits and diversify them as you see fit.

Mike

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #4 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,352 given, 83,234 received

Which are you, and why?

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #5 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,352 given, 83,234 received

Slightly modified the poll title to be more clear --- right now (a bull market) are you a permabull or a permabear?

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #6 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,122 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,747 given, 3,349 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

If you don't use leverage buy'n'holding the equity markets has been a pretty profitable trade for a very long time. Not saying markets don't go down, they might go down a lot in the near future, but I'm in the Buffet et al camp that in 5 years time equity markets will be higher than where they are now.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #7 (permalink)
Elite Member
Burlington, Vermont
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: StockTwits
Broker/Data: Robinhood
Favorite Futures: ES, GC, ZB
 
nathanologist's Avatar
 
Posts: 701 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 872 given, 775 received

Trade with the trend. Even in a down day, week or even month you gotta remember YOY... Decade over decade, the trend has been bullish. But I don't hold for weeks months or years, so I'm short often times, that doesn't mean I forget the big picture.

Reply With Quote
 
  #8 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,635 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,755 given, 11,114 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

I could have said either Permabull or Neither, but decided on bull. It could have been "Neither," because you've got to be flexible. But my overall expectation will stay bullish until there is good reason to change.

For one thing, just in terms of this curent market, it's always a sucker bet to go against the basic trend. Sure, price goes up and down, and sometimes you should take the other side, but if we're talking about the current bull trend, it is always going to be very hard to pick the top -- usually the top pickers will get their heads torn off. (Same for bottom pickers in bear markets.) So right now -- and as long as this bull market lasts -- I will assume that it's still BTFD time. That doesn't mean never go short, but as to the overall trend, yes, I will assume a continuing bull market.

I will be wrong at some point and will have to switch, but probably will be wrong less, and for less money, than the permabears.

Now, if we're not talking just about "this" bull market, but "the market" in general, I notice that it has been going up for a very long time, and so the above argument applies there, too.

Until it doesn't, of course.

Bob.

Reply With Quote
 
  #9 (permalink)
Elite Member
london, UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker/Data: NT
Favorite Futures: Stocks, Bonds
 
Posts: 131 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 152 given, 52 received

Use to be a doom monger, looking for the piece of evidence that would enforce my theory of the financial world was coming to a terrible end, found it so easy to be short. Then eventually I mellowed after the events from the subprime and the global melt down, after selling it nearly the whole of 07, when we all new about Fanny Mae in March.
The S&P finished up that year, then first week in January an(US) ISM figure came out good/bad, but it got sold off from that point.
Then when the market did unfold and banks creeked, governments became the last resort of lender, Sovereign funds, Warren Buffet, then I realized, that I was invested in this monetary aesthetic system, we need this to keep on working.
Although we have problems at the end of the day, we want, no!we need it to work and the governing bodies, all the major powers are all invested, occasionally they are blind sided and leads to a healthy correction, They react slowly but surely and another piece of genius accounting is done and the whole thing shuffles on, thankfully.
Police needs to be paid, Bins need collecting, street need lighting, basic order.
Greece being the latest example, of decent society unraveling, from an accounting perspective that deal should not of been done.
In the 80's not sure they had the imagination for accounting then and we probably wasnt as interlocked financially like we are all now.
Money is a token, its paper, obviously the game for most people is to amass as much money as possible, but this man made aesthetic system is bigger than the titanic, if it goes down, we wont be able to enjoy our hard earned gains from being short more than likely.
So when Zero Hedge and Roubini pipes up on the way down, they tell you as it is and it seems like such good sense, because it probably is.
Warren Buffet has invested long term, listened to him, he step in bought Insurance companies, when no one wanted them, realized they are a fabric of a rational society etc etc
Bear turned Bull, its in our best interest in the long run!

Reply With Quote
 
  #10 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bakersfield, CA USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures , NT Broker
Favorite Futures: Bonds, Gold, Oil, Currencies
 
OKshunalTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 268 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 238 given, 138 received

Definitely a BULL


I put a little cash to work during this pullback buying Kimberly Clark and adding to my Disney. Though I sold OXY, I put the funds in VLO and TSO. And I traded a high div ETF for hedged Japan and hedged European ETFs.
So I viewed this pullback as a buying opportunity.

I am definitely a bull on the stock market.

Microsoft raised dividend today!

I answered the last poll "I did not expect a rate hike at the September meeting" even though the Fed should. But I now Iwould not be surprised by a small rate increase.

The problem with trading is one needs to be right twice!
Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Permabull vs Permabear

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
You Know You are a Permabear When… cory Off-Topic 2 January 28th, 2010 03:17 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:31 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-14 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.90.207.75