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Permabull vs Permabear


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Permabull vs Permabear

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  #1 (permalink)
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Right now (in a bull market) are you a permabull or a permabear? Vote and discuss.

Right now in this bull market, are you a permabull or a permabear?

Total votes: 131
 


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I made some recent posts on my thread about this subject, so I will cross-post a couple of them here:


Big Mike View Post
So far today we have most the stars aligned. It's a trend up day, ctick hod corresponds with price hod, most asset classes are supportive, even yen is moving higher now.

The move higher has been on lower volume, as is typically the case. ZH always laments that, but the fact is most continuation moves are on lower volume. Now FOMC is going to bring some volume, and it could also cause some short capitulation should we break out above 93 SPX (which is roughly 83 Dec ES).

If FOMC is viewed as bearish, then the opposite is true and a test of 1900 or below is possible.

Frankly, I am bullish. I am a permabull by heart, and honestly I can't understand why anyone would be anything but a permabull. I don't care how rigged the markets are, all you need to do is plot a historical chart and I think it would be idiotic to be anything but a permabull.

Instead of fighting the insanity that is the market, just play the game, and take your profits and put them in asset classes that are not as vulnerable to the collapse that will one day change the world. Until that time, don't fight it. Be bullish!

Mike


Big Mike View Post
Let me qualify that -- we are still in a bull market. We experienced a correction, but it's still a bull market. By definition, correction is 10%, and new trend is 20%. Facts are that 10% corrections happen all the time in a trending market.

Until we actually see a bear market, there is no reason to be overly bearish!

Mike


Big Mike View Post
Let's pretend you are bearish right now with a short position. You are probably sweating it quite a bit, and you will be near panic levels should we be trading anywhere near 83 going into the announcement -- because you realize you could quickly be run over.

The market likes to cause pain to the weakest players, and right now, those are the shorts.

Now, it's not all roses. Above 2040 we have months of supply that is going to be extremely difficult to break through. In fact, I would imagine the only way we do break through all of it is if The Fed does something that is viewed as QE4. And you know what, I think they will.

Mike


Big Mike View Post
Absolutely. Reading ZH will tell you that those permabears are end-of-the-world types with physical gold and bunkers. That scenario is likely to unfold one day, but will you be alive when it does? These people spend a great deal of their energy betting against the world, and frankly the governments of the world have enough money and power to keep this up for quite a while.

It's much smarter to be a permabull. But it doesn't mean you have to agree with the policy decisions, it just means you recognize the market is going to move higher over time! Profit from it, and then take your profits and diversify them as you see fit.

Mike

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Which are you, and why?

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Slightly modified the poll title to be more clear --- right now (a bull market) are you a permabull or a permabear?

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  #6 (permalink)
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If you don't use leverage buy'n'holding the equity markets has been a pretty profitable trade for a very long time. Not saying markets don't go down, they might go down a lot in the near future, but I'm in the Buffet et al camp that in 5 years time equity markets will be higher than where they are now.

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Trade with the trend. Even in a down day, week or even month you gotta remember YOY... Decade over decade, the trend has been bullish. But I don't hold for weeks months or years, so I'm short often times, that doesn't mean I forget the big picture.

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  #8 (permalink)
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I could have said either Permabull or Neither, but decided on bull. It could have been "Neither," because you've got to be flexible. But my overall expectation will stay bullish until there is good reason to change.

For one thing, just in terms of this curent market, it's always a sucker bet to go against the basic trend. Sure, price goes up and down, and sometimes you should take the other side, but if we're talking about the current bull trend, it is always going to be very hard to pick the top -- usually the top pickers will get their heads torn off. (Same for bottom pickers in bear markets.) So right now -- and as long as this bull market lasts -- I will assume that it's still BTFD time. That doesn't mean never go short, but as to the overall trend, yes, I will assume a continuing bull market.

I will be wrong at some point and will have to switch, but probably will be wrong less, and for less money, than the permabears.

Now, if we're not talking just about "this" bull market, but "the market" in general, I notice that it has been going up for a very long time, and so the above argument applies there, too.

Until it doesn't, of course.

Bob.

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  #9 (permalink)
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Use to be a doom monger, looking for the piece of evidence that would enforce my theory of the financial world was coming to a terrible end, found it so easy to be short. Then eventually I mellowed after the events from the subprime and the global melt down, after selling it nearly the whole of 07, when we all new about Fanny Mae in March.
The S&P finished up that year, then first week in January an(US) ISM figure came out good/bad, but it got sold off from that point.
Then when the market did unfold and banks creeked, governments became the last resort of lender, Sovereign funds, Warren Buffet, then I realized, that I was invested in this monetary aesthetic system, we need this to keep on working.
Although we have problems at the end of the day, we want, no!we need it to work and the governing bodies, all the major powers are all invested, occasionally they are blind sided and leads to a healthy correction, They react slowly but surely and another piece of genius accounting is done and the whole thing shuffles on, thankfully.
Police needs to be paid, Bins need collecting, street need lighting, basic order.
Greece being the latest example, of decent society unraveling, from an accounting perspective that deal should not of been done.
In the 80's not sure they had the imagination for accounting then and we probably wasnt as interlocked financially like we are all now.
Money is a token, its paper, obviously the game for most people is to amass as much money as possible, but this man made aesthetic system is bigger than the titanic, if it goes down, we wont be able to enjoy our hard earned gains from being short more than likely.
So when Zero Hedge and Roubini pipes up on the way down, they tell you as it is and it seems like such good sense, because it probably is.
Warren Buffet has invested long term, listened to him, he step in bought Insurance companies, when no one wanted them, realized they are a fabric of a rational society etc etc
Bear turned Bull, its in our best interest in the long run!

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I put a little cash to work during this pullback buying Kimberly Clark and adding to my Disney. Though I sold OXY, I put the funds in VLO and TSO. And I traded a high div ETF for hedged Japan and hedged European ETFs.
So I viewed this pullback as a buying opportunity.

I am definitely a bull on the stock market.

Microsoft raised dividend today!

I answered the last poll "I did not expect a rate hike at the September meeting" even though the Fed should. But I now Iwould not be surprised by a small rate increase.

The problem with trading is one needs to be right twice!
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  #11 (permalink)
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I am flexible for my day trading but easily a permabull for investing.

Very simple reasons why

1. Monetary policy targets inflation so money is always being created. Any sort of policy will always be aimed at creating wealth and not destroying. I don't need a chart to tell me that, hence I am always a permabull.

2. Betting against the market is betting against monetary policy. I trade on the side of big money.

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I'm a bear, because a bear market creates the most opportunity.

Aside from the positive gearing I've got no idea where the market is going- no one does.

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
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  #13 (permalink)
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Neither.

Short Term:
SP500 in a uptrend channel with possible target around 2032 / 2066. If channel breaks down it possible test range channel at 1910.

Dollar 60 min bullflag.

Gold fighting top of channel / lines

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  #14 (permalink)
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this is probably geared towards people with equities exposure or doing portfolio management. For a day trader probably there should be no strong bias...well could be wrong. anyways have been more into equities exposure from 2014 while trying to firm up ES bad habits.

anyways am a bull just due to optimism, but seen that the market has already given 10-15% gains already for the year if cashed out, another 10-15% from here is not too bad. anyways currently do not have long term exposure....and could be wrong footed here. But also believe in a bull market the market typically gives a good entry on retracements. am actually out as i see few of my momentum equities acting like a dud.

markets seem a lil strange.....and not in a hurry to get in especially at this time. as mentioned willing to be wrong footed. lol am a bull but will let the real Big Bulls take this ahead.

also gone into some research and observations on ES trying to identify under the hood sells which is working quite well in the sense big sells in a day or AHs which is my concentration or big buys in after hours or in a day.

well in 2011 the market needed a good 2 months to retest the lows. 2015 maybe different...as we may have already seen the lows or maybe not ...from my standpoint there has been good liquidation since the early Junes.

well if she heads much higher that is 2050 and can maintain above...will try to get into equities again. and if she drops during this historic time will try and look for signs to get in.

well just a few observations into prior yrs especially 2011 reference which in true sense had the R word over it and 2015 which still does not. There seems to have been great Troughs in this Sell...so she might be good for the bounce if the Bulls can take this....else a liquidity crunch if she heads lower....well will not anticipate as am out of Pos and waiting to see what She does.





cheers n sweet trading.

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I guess I am neutral/bullish.

My only reason being that markets tend to go up. Super basic here.

-Jimmy
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