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I think it's interesting what @orlandob said in the chat "So much hysteria around federal debt. All major currencies are fiat, have (potentially) unlimited supply. All central banks and fedral governments are operatings as if 1971 never happened"
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R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
I am dreaming, at least I think I am. So I dream up stories and have others repeat them, then it gives my stories more relevance in my dreams. This still doesn't help me trade any better, but it does wake me up, I think.
Originally paper currency was backed by gold, that was what gave it its value, you could exchange it for physical gold. Once that backing is removed, its just paper and it becomes fiat, it has value because people simply believe it does (you could say the same for gold I suppose) but it is of potentially unlimited supply. Gold has fluctuated in price throughout history but at least it maintains some value. On the other hand, all fiat currencies throughout history have become valueless. So I view holding gold as a very long term investment, pretty much hedging against an inevitable currency collapse. There is no reason to believe that the USD will hold value its value in the very long term, being a fiat currency.
Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
If you present an opposite opinion, please show evidence. When you state that gold maintained some value, so what?
So did the price of diamonds and Van Gogh paintings that have shown more value as an alternative investment.
I took catastrophic and extreme situations in US history and Europe and found ZERO correlation between gold and any type of value it provided. In the last 20 years the institutional community have developed sophisticated OTC and other algorithmic tools in order to hedge against any financial meltdown. Sometimes it does not work, and in 2008 the institutions sold everything including Gold...."deleveraging"...where gold was dumped.
The only correlation I have found between GC and CL was actually your currency the Aussie $ (and CAD) that get dumped and devalued when CL and GC are down, despite the fact that at times the GDP is not changed much.
No disrespect, but If you are a "Gold Bug", I know that my argument is useless. The entire financially industry is filled with doom and gloom and if you love conspiracy, then go ahead store gold. There is always someone who will rent you a storage unit.
Gold today is like any other commodity, it goes up and down. Trade accordingly.
Matt
Optimus Futures
There is a financial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]
The main point I am making is that fiat currencies always devalue and collapse. This is not doom and gloom or conspiracy, it is history. The fact is, you can simply print it in unlimited supply. Buy diamonds, buy paintings, buy gold. Whatever. Its better than holding onto something that will eventually become worthless.
Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
Yes, there are many examples of extreme devaluation of currency. It happened to the Mark(Reischmark) after WW1, the Russian Ruble in the nineties, etc. Yet, I did not see people starting to run with gold bricks in the streets, and the currency stabilized at some point and all returned to normal.
If you have a specific example, I would like to hear. Not being sarcastic, please show me FIAT that collapsed never to be used again.
Matt
Optimus Futures
There is a risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]
"Excluding the early paper currencies of China up until the 15th century and the majority of paper currencies that existed in China until 1935, there are 609 currencies no longer in circulation. Of these, at least 153 were destroyed as a result of hyperinflation caused by over-issuance. The remainder were revalued, destroyed by military occupation/liberation, renamed for political reasons, or were converted to another currency. The median age for these currencies is only seventeen years."
Nice historical collection. Never the less, all these countries returned to FIAT.
Sadly, no evidence that there is a method that replaced it as a "safe haven".
Even if chose an asset as a safe haven, it is based on the currency at the time.
You do not know what will be the value under a new currency.
Matt
Optimus Futures
There is a risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]
