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Antidote to Zerohedge
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Antidote to Zerohedge

  #31 (permalink)
Normal Wizard
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mattz View Post
Agreed.

Nice historical collection. Never the less, all these countries returned to FIAT.
Sadly, no evidence that there is a method that replaced it as a "safe haven".
Even if chose an asset as a safe haven, it is based on the currency at the time.
You do not know what will be the value under a new currency.

Matt
Optimus Futures

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True. I think you could still get a rough estimate for some items, based on current values against the dollar. And theres always relative value based on supply/demand. Gold will be worth more than silver, land in cities will be worth more than land in the country per square meter etc. I would think that relative values should be similar in most cases. The big exception would be assets that have significant price increases fueled by debt, they would probably decrease in value relative to everything else because of all the deleveraging.

Cryptocurrency could be a gamechanger, if it is globally accepted as money. With bitcoin, the supply is limited to 20 something million and it is decentralized. The problem with paper currency, is that even if you back it with gold or some other physical commodity, there's always the temptation to print more to fund debt.

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.

Last edited by TickedOff; August 7th, 2015 at 04:36 AM.
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  #32 (permalink)
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mattz View Post

I took catastrophic and extreme situations in US history and Europe and found ZERO correlation between gold and any type of value it provided.

Gold today is like any other commodity, it goes up and down. Trade accordingly.

Unfortunately your article missed the only crucial fact relating to the modern history of gold - the creation of the Federal Reserve. The chart shows where that happened, no words needed. All other fluctuations are cyclic, wave driven and irrelevant, other than noise spikes such as the Gold Act and Bretton Woods on/off.

Gold has no 'value', it simply stores 'real work done' and measures the value of other things, such as paper currencies. Most people never understand the true upside down nature as they can only ever see 'money' as value, when in fact it is only ever paper, ink and a vacuous promise. This century's financial engineering does not count as real work done, no matter how we regard ourselves as traders.

ZH's commentary can be useful but in reality it is just an unfortunate part of the emotional landscape. Doom and gloom merchants tend to think in years and decades, real history takes hundreds and thousands as @TickedOff was illustrating.

However, you are right about trading it for what it is and I have no doubt gold can go way below 1k and way above it in whatever lifetime I have left.

Cheers

Travel Well
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  #33 (permalink)
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ratfink View Post
Unfortunately your article missed the only crucial fact relating to the modern history of gold - the creation of the Federal Reserve. The chart shows where that happened, no words needed. All other fluctuations are cyclic, wave driven and irrelevant, other than noise spikes such as the Gold Act and Bretton Woods on/off.

Gold has no 'value', it simply stores 'real work done' and measures the value of other things, such as paper currencies. Most people never understand the true upside down nature as they can only ever see 'money' as value, when in fact it is only ever paper, ink and a vacuous promise. This century's financial engineering does not count as real work done, no matter how we regard ourselves as traders.

ZH's commentary can be useful but in reality it is just an unfortunate part of the emotional landscape. Doom and gloom merchants tend to think in years and decades, real history takes hundreds and thousands as @TickedOff was illustrating.

However, you are right about trading it for what it is and I have no doubt gold can go way below 1k and way above it in whatever lifetime I have left.

Cheers

Well, hopefully you will have a very long life.

As for stance on gold: You could be right, and if the measure is thousands and hundreds of years, maybe gold has value. However, my argument is also to show that not each financial, political or global meltdown will make gold spike. Therefore, I do not want people to look at gold as an asset class that could potentially save them from disasters.
The mark up on physical gold for retail is very high whether pure gold, coins, collectibles, etc. I have seen it as high as 200% because it is a coin minted with some eagle. Same when it comes to trading, be flexible and not "long only" mentality.

I am just trying to save people a few bucks, that is all.

Matt
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  #34 (permalink)
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TickedOff View Post

Cryptocurrency could be a gamechanger, if it is globally accepted as money. With bitcoin, the supply is limited to 20 something million and it is decentralized. The problem with paper currency, is that even if you back it with gold or some other physical commodity, there's always the temptation to print more to fund debt.

Cryptocurrency is indeed a game changer. Consider that in addition to the fact that it will be limited to 21Million units, the algorithm also does not allow to create units as one wishes. The more units are created, to the best of my understanding, the harder is the mining and the creation of additional units. This is the supply side of money, for those who say it does not backed up by any asset, it's backed by time.

Sadly, Regulators and bitcoin are all over the map. Some state say it's money transmission, some say it is not, other want licenses, other's do not. Some countries are allowing the use, while some do not. Until we get some uniformity, I suspect that it will not get popular amongst the masses.

Mean time, the real advances in the technology that drives Bitcoin is Blockchain. It could have application in trading and consumer consumption.

Matt
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  #35 (permalink)
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Gold always triggers passionate conversation

I am still fascinated with the emotions behind gold arguments. I spent my first 20 years in India and the next 20 in West. I think i am fortunate to understand both the emotional and the rational side of these arguments.

I was a Perma-Bull of gold. There couldn't have been any other choice for me. Indians (at-least the ones I know) NEVER NEVER SELL gold to lock in profits. If you need money, then you pawn your jewels but get it back as soon as possible. If you are in deep financial trouble, after exhausting all traditional sources, only then you sell. Gold is NOT JUST MONEY, it's more than that. It's DIVINE - like Goddess Lakhsmi. Even after living in the western world for more than 15 years, I would never short GC or sell my bars/coins/jewelry. (I am not a religious person but still wouldn't DARE short GC which has been in an eternal bull market). That changed in 2012.

Only recently (3 years ago), I realised the marvel of that 2000 years of tradition. I needed a great historian & trader - Martin Armstrong - to explain that to me in understandable terms. Gold is INSURANCE against Governments. Plain and simple. Every other relationship i.e to inflation, equities, bonds, silver or war is complex and NOT consistent. That explains the tradition in China and India whose lengthy history taught wise people NOT to trust the government who serve their own interest before that of their citizens. Morover, Banking industry has been poorly developed for centuries with no reliable source of money when you are in need. No-one would trust you without collateral which is often Gold. It's akin to living in USA with health problems but NO health insurance

Since there has been no welfare or pension system, there was a natural caution with savings due to unpredictable future. Real estate was a good option but risks taxation, confiscation and visibility. Hence Gold was a good alternative. Currently, we have several investment alternatives, but old habits die hard.

Back to my own story in 2012. I began to believe Gold as just another investment vehicle & NOT a mystical or divine object. I stopped my habit of quarterly purchase of gold bullion bars in 2012. However, I couldn't sell gold, not yet, not yet. When I eventually told my parents in 2013 to sell 1 ounce of bullion TO LOCK IN PROFITS, they couldn't believe it. There are no words to describe their reluctance & resistance. They were offended and also thought it was idiotic. I even had my extended family members asking me NOT to sell GOLD. Logic was simple. 'You are not in dire need of money, why sell now?'. I insisted and prevailed. We all know what happened to Gold prices post 2013.

Even after Indian rupee depreciation, Dollar strength & Govt's clampdown 10% tax, Gold price went down and I created quite an impression Now, they consult me before they buy gold 'just to make sure that it won't go down further'. None of them are ready to trade/sell gold yet but they added caution to their investment philosophy. That's a good start

I don't think the Bull Market is over for Gold. We are still in the correction phase and when Bonds collapse next, confidence in Govt will diminish and this will fuel price of all tangible assets including Gold. We are not there yet but getting close.

Finally, crypto-currency or any other electronic investments DON'T stand a chance in this environment where rulers have almost unlimited power over the citizens.

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  #36 (permalink)
Normal Wizard
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Narcissus View Post
I am still fascinated with the emotions behind gold arguments. I spent my first 20 years in India and the next 20 in West. I think i am fortunate to understand both the emotional and the rational side of these arguments.

I was a Perma-Bull of gold. There couldn't have been any other choice for me. Indians (at-least the ones I know) NEVER NEVER SELL gold to lock in profits. If you need money, then you pawn your jewels but get it back as soon as possible. If you are in deep financial trouble, after exhausting all traditional sources, only then you sell. Gold is NOT JUST MONEY, it's more than that. It's DIVINE - like Goddess Lakhsmi. Even after living in the western world for more than 15 years, I would never short GC or sell my bars/coins/jewelry. (I am not a religious person but still wouldn't DARE short GC which has been in an eternal bull market). That changed in 2012.

Only recently (3 years ago), I realised the marvel of that 2000 years of tradition. I needed a great historian & trader - Martin Armstrong - to explain that to me in understandable terms. Gold is INSURANCE against Governments. Plain and simple. Every other relationship i.e to inflation, equities, bonds, silver or war is complex and NOT consistent. That explains the tradition in China and India whose lengthy history taught wise people NOT to trust the government who serve their own interest before that of their citizens. Morover, Banking industry has been poorly developed for centuries with no reliable source of money when you are in need. No-one would trust you without collateral which is often Gold. It's akin to living in USA with health problems but NO health insurance

Since there has been no welfare or pension system, there was a natural caution with savings due to unpredictable future. Real estate was a good option but risks taxation, confiscation and visibility. Hence Gold was a good alternative. Currently, we have several investment alternatives, but old habits die hard.

Back to my own story in 2012. I began to believe Gold as just another investment vehicle & NOT a mystical or divine object. I stopped my habit of quarterly purchase of gold bullion bars in 2012. However, I couldn't sell gold, not yet, not yet. When I eventually told my parents in 2013 to sell 1 ounce of bullion TO LOCK IN PROFITS, they couldn't believe it. There are no words to describe their reluctance & resistance. They were offended and also thought it was idiotic. I even had my extended family members asking me NOT to sell GOLD. Logic was simple. 'You are not in dire need of money, why sell now?'. I insisted and prevailed. We all know what happened to Gold prices post 2013.

Even after Indian rupee depreciation, Dollar strength & Govt's clampdown 10% tax, Gold price went down and I created quite an impression Now, they consult me before they buy gold 'just to make sure that it won't go down further'. None of them are ready to trade/sell gold yet but they added caution to their investment philosophy. That's a good start

I don't think the Bull Market is over for Gold. We are still in the correction phase and when Bonds collapse next, confidence in Govt will diminish and this will fuel price of all tangible assets including Gold. We are not there yet but getting close.

Finally, crypto-currency or any other electronic investments DON'T stand a chance in this environment where rulers have almost unlimited power over the citizens.

I would like to hear your reasoning behind your last statement. I think cryptocurrencies are great against oppressive governments because they can't be easily confiscated or manipulated.

Crypto-currency is non-physical and "confiscation" would have to take place via having your wallet password hacked. I am not an IT guy, I am not sure how difficult this for different cryptocurrencies. In history, gold/silver coins are often devalued by having their precious metal content and replaced with less valuable metals. Roman denarius is a good example. So in this sense, gold can still be manipulated, if circulated as money. I think you will only be affected if you store gold in the form of the devalued coin, because many people will not realize what is going on and assume one coin with a lesser gold content is still worth the same. The algorithm for bitcoins (dont know about other crypto currencies) limits the supply to 21 million. It is also impossible to short-sell bitcoin.

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
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  #37 (permalink)
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TickedOff View Post
I would like to hear your reasoning behind your last statement. I think cryptocurrencies are great against oppressive governments because they can't be easily confiscated or manipulated.

I don't have an IT background either and hence don't understand the intricacies of them. However, I have few thoughts to share.

Cryto-currencies are essentially financial rebellion against governments. It's an alternative to the corrupt status quo. I consider the reasoning behind those currencies as clever & laudable but extremely hard to implement. Especial once it gains popularity among the common man.

No object is a currency if it's not endorsed by a legitimate government & used by majority of the citizens.

1 - Most governments will make it illegal as it threatens their existence in the current corrupt form. They can be forced to accept by informed citizens but I don't see that happening for a variety of social reasons. Their dependency on govt. and various benefit/welfare schemes is one of them.

2- Most citizens will find it hard to understand and use. There are still a lot of people in this word who either don't have access to technology or have a healthy dose of suspicion towards them.

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  #38 (permalink)
Normal Wizard
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Narcissus View Post
I don't have an IT background either and hence don't understand the intricacies of them. However, I have few thoughts to share.

Cryto-currencies are essentially financial rebellion against governments. It's an alternative to the corrupt status quo. I consider the reasoning behind those currencies as clever & laudable but extremely hard to implement. Especial once it gains popularity among the common man.

No object is a currency if it's not endorsed by a legitimate government & used by majority of the citizens.

1 - Most governments will make it illegal as it threatens their existence in the current corrupt form. They can be forced to accept by informed citizens but I don't see that happening for a variety of social reasons. Their dependency on govt. and various benefit/welfare schemes is one of them.

2- Most citizens will find it hard to understand and use. There are still a lot of people in this word who either don't have access to technology or have a healthy dose of suspicion towards them.

I think what you say is pretty much true but I think people are getting increasingly suspicious and tired of of increasing government controls, "security" that is costing them their freedom, I think if there's a strong catalyst like hyperinflation, that would create strong incentives to ditch fiat and the USD and bitcoin is a good alternative. If the majority if citizens use it as currency not much the govt can do about it which would risk significant conflict (i.e. overthrow of government) if there is serious support.

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
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  #39 (permalink)
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@ ZH :

If they are traders they would have been out of money long time ago . Sure at some point they are going to be so right but what about the other 9 times .

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  #40 (permalink)
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I honestly believe most gold bugs just need help with depression:

"IF only we could convert our currency to gold THEN I would be happy!"

The whole doom and gloom world view just fits right into all that and confirms what the depressed mind already thought.

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