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Getting Started Trading with 1,000.00 Using Ninja Trader
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Getting Started Trading with 1,000.00 Using Ninja Trader

  #91 (permalink)
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TickedOff View Post
Well very few can make any money consistently for that matter. Just saying, elite intraday can traders make huge returns well over 10% per month, stocks, futures - whatever. Not saying they dont have rough months or whatever, its just they trade much more frequently. Assuming similar risk/reward + probability of winning, more trades per day = higher return. (Emphasis on my assumption. More trades isnt better, you gotta have edge).

Agreed - if a casual trader can only plug in 2 hours a day versus one who can trade 12 hours a day, by definition they have a 6x better chance of running into a good setup with an edge.

Also I am not denying 10% is possible, the consistency is the issue. A guy can go to the casino and earn 100% by hitting black but doesn't mean he can do it consistently - the fella above thinks he can earn 10% a month on average which implies consistency.

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  #92 (permalink)
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1800lund View Post
This is very close to my strategy precisely! It may take me a a while to grow account to a sizable amount of working capital. Gains will be small/losses will be small.

The 1000.00 invested is not bread off my kids table, its cash I can afford to lose. If gone quickly, will cut my losses and move on. Very confident I have the discipline to make it last.

Simple Math (I used a calculator online)
1000.00 invested 10% Return monthly, in 18 months= 5559.52 and 24 months=9849.73
No bank has this kinda ROI.

Since we like to make funnies, let me make you guys laugh. Could spend 20 hours per week working a part time brainless JOB for 12.00 per hour. In 24 Months I would earn 23,040.00 with nothing invested. That is double the above numbers!!!

My choice is to learn a new skill that has potential for an early retirement. Willing to put in the time and efforts it takes. Lets face it there is no easy money out there. You have to WORK and earn it!

10% a month compounds to ~245% p.a. To put that into perspective Ed Seykota earned 200% p.a. with 50% drawdowns during his best period - search his FAQ - I believe that was posted in 2014 and relates to a question about him going bankrupt. Mark Minervini averaged 220% p.a. for a 5 year period. Another Market Wizard who potentially managed to return more than 200% p.a. is Richard Dennis, but his performance numbers are never quoted. Dan Zanger is not a Market Wizard, but his performance during 1999 is phenomenal. I may be missing some, but you get the idea - obtaining these numbers puts you in very elite company.

I know it seems like scalping is a low-risk way to grow the account, but in reality it never really works out that way. Based on conversations with some people on this forum, there may be some who accomplish this, but the odds are extremely low. The shorter your time-frame for trading, the less likely you are to make money - once you've traded a while, you may see why.


PeakGrowth View Post
No bank has that ROI and not a lot of other people have it either (if any, consistently).

If you read any of the market wizards books you'll see the worlds best traders get 30-70% with a few exceptional who can do 100%+ per year but not for a sustained period - and definitely not off a stake of $1k. You think you can do 10% a year, that's way more than 120% a year compounded.

Stop running numbers in your head about how much you can make until you can figure out how to make it.

Most of the Market Wizards in the first two books started trading in the 70s. During that period interest rates got lowered and commodities started booming. Bill Gross recently published an article asking whether most traders of that period were just lucky, i.e. right place, right time. Reading about how things worked back then, I tend to agree - you can read Market Wizards and see how much of an advantage a professional trader had versus the dentist.

In the 80s, equities really took off and had exceptional growth until 99. IBD published a chart showing the growth in the average stock (not indexes), and growth has been flat after 99. A lot of the Stock Market Wizards are no longer around.

I used to track performance of the Market Wizards who still trade and run funds, and none of them gets over 40% p.a. The best may be in the 30% range. Most of this is due to size, but market conditions have also changed. Just look at the Turtle system that is no longer profitable. When I was tracking funds any fund averaging over 20% p.a. was exceptional and most likely started during a good period, i.e. long track record dating back to the 70s or 80s. There were exceptions, but few and far between.

I could not agree more with your comment that he should stop running numbers in his head - the market never gives the numbers I would like to achieve...


TickedOff View Post
10% per month is nothing for intraday traders. 30%-70% per year is exceptional for large funds/traders with lots of money to move.

I would really like to see some documented proof of intraday traders averaging more than 10% per month. I have never seen Marty Scwhartz's numbers and perhaps he made more than that, but good luck trying to find any trader, never mind intraday, averaging 10% a month.

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  #93 (permalink)
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TickedOff View Post
Well very few can make any money consistently for that matter. Just saying, elite intraday can traders make huge returns well over 10% per month, stocks, futures - whatever. Not saying they dont have rough months or whatever, its just they trade much more frequently. Assuming similar risk/reward + probability of winning, more trades per day = higher return. (Emphasis on my assumption. More trades isnt better, you gotta have edge).

The best traders I have seen tend to be extremely selective, place very few trades and only trade when they deem conditions to be right. Trying to trade much more frequently generally does not lead to better results - usually the exact opposite happens. Traders who trade very frequently tend to lose money over the long term.


PeakGrowth View Post
Agreed - if a casual trader can only plug in 2 hours a day versus one who can trade 12 hours a day, by definition they have a 6x better chance of running into a good setup with an edge.

Not necessarily - I know of a trader who traded trend-following systems at OANDA using an Opening Range Breakout on the London open. He did extremely well - but needed to volatility that was present during that time. If the markets go nowhere, more screen time will not help at all.

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  #94 (permalink)
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@grausch is becoming one of my favorite posters on futures.io (formerly BMT). He is giving very good advice.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #95 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
@grausch is becoming one of my favorite posters on futures.io (formerly BMT). He is giving very good advice.

Thank you - means a lot coming from you. I was lucky enough to get some good advice earlier in my life, but dumb enough not to listen to it. If those just starting out would seriously think about these posts (not just mine), then perhaps they may have a chance at making money out of the markets.

I should probably note that as my advice gets better my trading seems to suffer

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  #96 (permalink)
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grausch View Post
The best traders I have seen tend to be extremely selective, place very few trades and only trade when they deem conditions to be right. Trying to trade much more frequently generally does not lead to better results - usually the exact opposite happens.

Well said - so true.

(This is one of my problems over doing a TopStep Combine: I don't know if I can trade often enough to meet the targets, given reasonably safe position-sizes. Possibly doing a Continuous Combine is the answer to that, but even then the rules change, after passing one, for the "Funded Trader Preparation".)

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  #97 (permalink)
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grausch View Post
The best traders I have seen tend to be extremely selective, place very few trades and only trade when they deem conditions to be right. Trying to trade much more frequently generally does not lead to better results - usually the exact opposite happens. Traders who trade very frequently tend to lose money over the long term.



Not necessarily - I know of a trader who traded trend-following systems at OANDA using an Opening Range Breakout on the London open. He did extremely well - but needed to volatility that was present during that time. If the markets go nowhere, more screen time will not help at all.

which is why I emphasized the last point of my post. Assuming the same risk to reward and probability of winning, more trades is better. That's different to forcing trades and being impatient where you have negative expectancy per trade. Someone who puts one one really good trade per day will make less than someone who puts on 10 really good trades per day if the expectancy is the same. Which is why intraday traders way outperform fund managers. Their criteria for trade setups simply occur more frequently because they trade a shorter timeframe.

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
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  #98 (permalink)
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grausch View Post
I would really like to see some documented proof of intraday traders averaging more than 10% per month.

I posted trades, fills, broker statements, and etc on a daily/monthly basis in my thread from around October 14 to Mar 15 that showed me beating this.

https://futures.io/elite-trading-journals/1415-big-mikes-day-trading-method-advice.html

Mike

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  #99 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
I posted trades, fills, broker statements, and etc on a daily/monthly basis in my thread from around October 14 to Mar 15 that showed me beating this.

https://futures.io/elite-trading-journals/1415-big-mikes-day-trading-method-advice.html

Mike

I was hesitant, but since you mentioned this, my mentor is fairly consistent in averaging 10% per month. It sort of became my 5-year benchmark to beat.

@Big Mike was that with your automated strats, or manual? If the latter, that's amazing man!

-Jimmy
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  #100 (permalink)
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FABRICATORX View Post
I was hesitant, but since you mentioned this, my mentor is fairly consistent in averaging 10% per month. It sort of became my 5-year benchmark to beat.

@Big Mike was that with your automated strats, or manual? If the latter, that's amazing man!

That was purely discretionary trades. I don't mean to derail this thread, just pointing out it is entirely possible.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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