Should Germany leave the Euro? - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Should Germany leave the Euro?
Updated: Views / Replies:6,084 / 69
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:2

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 2  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Should Germany leave the Euro?

  #51 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,635 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,754 given, 11,113 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


xplorer View Post
@Fat Tails, of the 3 options you listed I believe that 'technically' what should happen if the 'EU project' is to succeed long term is go down the Option 1 route, i.e. the creation of a United States of Europe structure where not only economic policy but also fiscal policy is centralised.

Of course that won't fly in reality. No head of state/politician will ever relinquish such powers to a higher authority and de facto abdicate their country's sovereignty. I don't see it happening anyway.

I don't know if this will add much to the discussion, but I think something like the first option was really always the end state that was envisioned by the European project: union economically, fiscally and politically. I think that it was felt that a common currency would be a good lead-in to that.

As has been pointed out many times, there are both cultural and basic political obstacles that have not been overcome, and that can't be just papered over or hand-waved away.

It's a pity, frankly, but any such unification will probably be a result of a slower evolution that reduces the barriers more naturally, if, in fact, it happens at all.

Bob.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
  #52 (permalink)
Elite Member
Omer עומר / Israel י
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker/Data: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Favorite Futures: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
 
rleplae's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,489 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 1,704 given, 3,694 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

1. If you want to keep one single € zone as is exists today, then it mandatory requires a mone
y flow from the rich(er) regions to the poorer regions. This is also the case in the USA, where some
states need to pay for the other states.

While there is a single € zone and a € trade zone with free movement of capital and people,
the mindset (as correctly analysis in the previous view) is not yet generally accepted and people
tend to not want to pay for the party of the other..

From a macro economic point of view, it is difficult to have such a big region, with significant
cultural differences (aka put a Fin and a Greek together... and watch) and a single monetary
instrument... policy makers have never thought this one true completely...

While there are many advantages of a single euro zone, there are disadvantages
people tend to quickly forget and want + but no -

2. In case the hole chapter of europe and the euro needs to be un-done, there will be a lot of
financial issues. Who pays for what ? Unless this happens at the moment of a complete meltdown
of the system, at which point it does no longer matter...

3. Feet on the ground, i think in the current context, the fact to create 60B euro per month, just
out of thin air, with no reasonable sign of any improvement for the euro zone, this will simply
just back fire... only i haven't found a way to monetize it yet...

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to rleplae for this post:
 
  #53 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,653 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,601 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



xplorer View Post
Excellent analysis of the European situation. Of course many months have passed and the Greece odissey is in the rearview mirror. Personally I think it was despicable both how the Greeks were treated and, at the same time, the gamble that Tsipras took with a referendum which, in the end, harmed Greece more than not.

@Fat Tails, of the 3 options you listed I believe that 'technically' what should happen if the 'EU project' is to succeed long term is go down the Option 1 route, i.e. the creation of a United States of Europe structure where not only economic policy but also fiscal policy is centralised.

Of course that won't fly in reality. No head of state/politician will ever relinquish such powers to a higher authority and de facto abdicate their country's sovereignty. I don't see it happening anyway.
So we're stuck with huge cultural differences, especially between the northern and the 'peripheral economies' with the public opinion of the former negatively biased towards the latter. Who can blame them? When a German pensioner who's always paid taxes lives now on a pension of 1,300 Euros but then hears that we have in Greece ex postal workers on pensions as high as 4,000 Euros (extreme cases probably but, still) and Greece/Italy (for instance) are not known for honoring taxes as much as them, I would probably be pretty mad too.

On the other hand, I agreed with Varoufakis when he said that the proposals put forward by the EU (signing a deal for a new loan, only to pay the debt of the previous one) was simply akin to kicking the can down the road. He said that he explained from a technical point of view to his EU counterparts why that was not viable but he could not engage them in an economics discussion. If true, it's disappointing.

Anyway, we are where we are.

I don't understand Option 2. How can you devalue a common EU currency in a EU country but not in another?

Option 2 was not properly explained. Devaluation requires reintroducing a local currency. The Euro should not be treated as a holy cow.

Today the European Union is made up of 28 member countries. 19 have introduced the Euro. 9 countries have so far kept their local currency. Out of the 9 countries, 3 of them (UK, Denmark and Sweden) have voted against the introduction of the Euro. Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria and Croatia are not interested in introducing the Euro.

This shows that there are two groups of countries who wish to keep their currencies

-> Scandinavian countries / UK
-> Eastern European countries with the exception of the Baltic states, Slovakia and Slovenia

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
  #54 (permalink)
Market Wizard
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,050 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 6,563 given, 4,819 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


bobwest View Post
I think something like the first option was really always the end state that was envisioned by the European project: union economically, fiscally and politically. I think that it was felt that a common currency would be a good lead-in to that [...] if, in fact, it happens at all.


Fat Tails View Post
This shows that there are two groups of countries who wish to keep their currencies

-> Scandinavian countries / UK
-> Eastern European countries with the exception of the Baltic states, Slovakia and Slovenia

And there in lies the rub. As bob says, the Fiscal etc. union is a long term project, but who knows if it will ever happen.

I think it is smarter to wait for that and then join in. Smart move for the countries who have not taken up the Euro offer. More independence and being more in tune with their country's fiscal policies.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to xplorer for this post:
 
  #55 (permalink)
Elite Member
Amsterdam
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: FGBL, NQ
 
jtrade's Avatar
 
Posts: 267 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 336 given, 224 received

Nobody in Germany likes the "Soros Option" - that Germany leaves the Euro.

Why ?

Because Germany has benefitted the most by far from its introduction.

Why ?

Because Germans as a whole work harder & more efficiently to produce better designed products of higher quality that consumers want.

Normally within the capitalist model, this strength would lead to an increased valuation of their currency, giving their trading partners within the EU a better chance of competing. But since the Eurozone was created, Germany has been superior and economically crushed its partners, helped by further enormous interest rate imbalance in the form of, for example, the Greeks being able to borrow a the same rate as the Germans (impossible without the same currency).

So, berating the Greeks and others whilst stuffing in their bratwurst and downing their delicious Bavarian beer, they have benefitted enormously... and who lent the Greeks all that money they were never going to be able to pay back : oh, my goodness, the Germans (mostly).

So, dear Angela (Merkel), stop whining about paying for everybody else, a situation in whose creation you played a, if not the, major part, get real & write off the debt, leave the Euro to give every one else in the Eurozone a chance to slowly regain economic health (it won't happen otherwise) and clear up the mess and suffering you have caused with your foolish, if well-intentioned, "open doors policy" to the refugees (who cannot be blamed for flooding across Europe to get there).

A different point of view (from someone who drives & appreciates German cars... and Ninjascript coders ).

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to jtrade for this post:
 
  #56 (permalink)
Elite Member
Omer עומר / Israel י
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker/Data: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Favorite Futures: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
 
rleplae's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,489 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 1,704 given, 3,694 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Interesting reading :

End of Europe? Berlin, Brussels' shock tactic on migrants By Reuters

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to rleplae for this post:
 
  #57 (permalink)
Elite Member
Birmingham UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: IG/eSignal
Favorite Futures: Dax
 
ratfink's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,336 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11,276 given, 7,090 received




Quoting 
...offering no grounds to be optimistic other than that "optimism is our last line of our defense"

And that is precisely why the Wave Principle is present in human affairs.

Travel Well
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ratfink for this post:
 
  #58 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,653 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,601 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


jtrade View Post
Nobody in Germany likes the "Soros Option" - that Germany leaves the Euro.

Why ?

Because Germany has benefitted the most by far from its introduction.

Why ?

Because Germans as a whole work harder & more efficiently to produce better designed products of higher quality that consumers want.

Normally within the capitalist model, this strength would lead to an increased valuation of their currency, giving their trading partners within the EU a better chance of competing. But since the Eurozone was created, Germany has been superior and economically crushed its partners, helped by further enormous interest rate imbalance in the form of, for example, the Greeks being able to borrow a the same rate as the Germans (impossible without the same currency).

So, berating the Greeks and others whilst stuffing in their bratwurst and downing their delicious Bavarian beer, they have benefitted enormously... and who lent the Greeks all that money they were never going to be able to pay back : oh, my goodness, the Germans (mostly).

So, dear Angela (Merkel), stop whining about paying for everybody else, a situation in whose creation you played a, if not the, major part, get real & write off the debt, leave the Euro to give every one else in the Eurozone a chance to slowly regain economic health (it won't happen otherwise) and clear up the mess and suffering you have caused with your foolish, if well-intentioned, "open doors policy" to the refugees (who cannot be blamed for flooding across Europe to get there).

A different point of view (from someone who drives & appreciates German cars... and Ninjascript coders ).


And you think that Germany has benefitted more from the introduction of the Euro than the Netherlands, which are handling a large part of German imports and exports?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
  #59 (permalink)
Elite Member
Amsterdam
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: FGBL, NQ
 
jtrade's Avatar
 
Posts: 267 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 336 given, 224 received


Fat Tails View Post
And you think that Germany has benefitted more from the introduction of the Euro than the Netherlands, which are handling a large part of German imports and exports?

FAR more... but the Dutch are indeed pretty darned sneaky, the way they handle so many non-EU corporations' business within Europe, ie. they help them avoid EU taxes.

I'm Scottish, btw - we just had a near-miss with the referendum : had Scotland left the UK & joined the Eurozone, with its calculations for fiscal balance based on $110 oil, we'd now be heading for bankruptcy... then you Germans could have bailed us out as well

Wait a minute ! If Germany leaves the Eurozone, who's going to bail everyone else out ?

No, no - we didn't mean it, you are essential to the Eurozone !

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jtrade for this post:
 
  #60 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,653 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,601 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



jtrade View Post
FAR more... but the Dutch are indeed pretty darned sneaky, the way they handle so many non-EU corporations' business within Europe, ie. they help them avoid EU taxes.

I'm Scottish, btw - we just had a near-miss with the referendum : had Scotland left the UK & joined the Eurozone, with its calculations for fiscal balance based on $110 oil, we'd now be heading for bankruptcy... then you Germans could have bailed us out as well

Wait a minute ! If Germany leaves the Eurozone, who's going to bail everyone else out ?

No, no - we didn't mean it, you are essential to the Eurozone !


The Scottish are easy to bail out.

Just need to introduce export duties on whisky.

Then they'll drink the good stuff themselves and don't need anything else ......

That is thw worst case scenario - at least from my point of view ....

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Should Germany leave the Euro?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
When will Greece leave the Euro? Big Mike Currency Futures 56 January 3rd, 2016 03:20 AM
Soros Tells Germany It Should Leave Euro Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 April 10th, 2013 06:50 AM
George Soros to Germany: Lead or Leave Euro Quick Summary News and Current Events 1 September 10th, 2012 09:30 PM
Germany drawing up plans for Greece to leave the euro GridKing News and Current Events 4 February 18th, 2012 10:49 PM
Will Germany leave the Euro ? zt379 Off-Topic 76 November 28th, 2011 02:45 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:37 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-14 in 0.16 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.221.76.68