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Should Germany leave the Euro?
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Should Germany leave the Euro?

  #41 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
@Fat Tails, well done.

I'm amazed that you had the patience or the stomach for it.

Bob.

I actually got annoyed around the 5th statement, but then decided to continue. I had the option to stop writing, but I was unable to accept the sunk cost, and I had to continue.


Last edited by Fat Tails; January 1st, 2016 at 02:02 PM.
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  #42 (permalink)
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Extreme Greed

I believe we should all examine this emotion when we trade. I've heard some say, "I don't trade unless there is blood in the street!". Extreme Greed is sweeping the world. Those who are offended easily have lost their humility and are worshiping the wrong Gods, e.g., money, people, places, things and you see guys blowing their accounts all of the time - Hedge Fund Managers too. I like watching hedge fund managers and how they try to get themselves on boards so they can split the company up or somehow make boards dance to their value plays. In the 70s, 80s, 90s; if you ignored business cycles, you were screwed. I told a friend 70 was a bad year, 80 was a bad year, 90 was a bad year; and I said 2000 will be a bad year. My friend ignored my advice, kept his money in the market and lost 3/4 of his retirement money. How can you persuade someone who is totally blinded by greed? If you can tolerate the draw down, you have no problem; except when your investors all want their money back. Bill Ackman comes to mind with Valeant Pharmaceuticals. He's notorious keeping a loosing stock till it come around while his investors are pounding, yelling, and screaming. Valeant is a Canadian Stock whose pharmaceuticals are bought by a government health care system and they overprice their old pharmaceuticals because it not a free market. On the other hand, Valeant tried to sell it pharmaceuticals in the U.S. in a free market capitalist system and our government is questioning their high prices. That stock is caught between two different health care systems and can easily be replaced by generics. I'm a buy and hold investor. I'm not a day trader. I tried it with Forex and I was playing chicken with the Bank of Japan. My timing is terrible with forex. Soros is the master. There was a guy who cornered the English Pound, Mark Rich. He somehow cheated and had to go to Switzerland and his wife got Bill Clinton to let him off. He used to buy oil from Edi Amine for a quarter a barrel and load it on ships and take it to the refinery. He made out pretty good. One of my passions is to some day be a floor trader in the pits at the CME. Man, that would be quite a ride. There was a guy named pit bull who used to trade one contract at a time. Friday, he bought out of the money puts; because in his gut he felt Monday would be a big down day. I think he was in the stock futures pit. Monday, stocks went down 1000 points. He was up in his office selling the puts, while the people who made fun of him were loosing their shirts. It was a 5 million dollar day for him and he calmly went down and bought some seats on the exchange. Jesse Livermore made 5 million too on the 1929crash. He shorted stocks overvalued. But later on, he started gambling; he got a divorce and put a bullet in his head. Extreme Greed will get you if you don't have a high power of the Lord. Happy New Year. Hope we all do good this year!

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  #43 (permalink)
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i definitely agree the best solution for the EUR zone would be if germany left the EUR. the EUR is very bad for the european idea. with such different economies it is insane to put then all together in the same currency.

though it will never happen. France and Marine le Pen is the hope of europe to terminate the EUR experiment. i am from germany and recently moved to the U.S. for work. but honestly, it does not really matter anymore what germany does or does not do. the german government is just the most criminal in the entire world and suffering from severe insanety. and the people many are just stupid sleepers. it is now a fallen country. Actually I consider myself a refugee from this insanety.


Last edited by BTC2013; January 4th, 2016 at 01:04 AM.
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  #44 (permalink)
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BTC2013 View Post
i definitely agree the best solution for the EUR zone would be if germany left the EUR. the EUR is very bad for the european idea. with such different economies it is insane to put then all together in the same currency.

though it will never happen. France and Marine le Pen is the hope of europe to terminate the EUR experiment. i am from germany and recently moved to the U.S. for work. but honestly, it does not really matter anymore what germany does or does not do. the german government is just the most criminal in the entire world and suffering from severe insanety. and the people many are just stupid sleepers. it is now a fallen country. Actually I consider myself a refugee from this insanety.


This response is a bit simplistic.

It is not only Germany that should leave the Euro, but it would be all countries which do not have the habit of making electoral gifts and promises that they cannot keep. There is a cultural gap between the Latin countries which have a long history of not collecting taxes and overspending and Central and Northern Europe.

Therefore you would rather see two groups of countries

Group A: Germany, Finnland, Estonia, Lithuania Letland, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, Czech Republic, Slowakia, Austria, Slowenia, who can pretty well manage their budgets and live with a stronger currency.

Group B: France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Malta and Cyprus.

The reason that the EURO does not work for Europe is a strong cultural heritage that makes it impossible to adopt to a common currency. Having a common currency for Central/Northern and Latin Europe makes as much sense as having a common currency for the US and Mexico.

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  #45 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
How did you manage to put all that nonsense into just 11 lines? As a European I feel insulted by such an amount of ignorance.
....
(10)"I could swear half of Germany is gay and other parts of Southern Europe are families and procreators." I think that you are still living in the 19th century. How backwardish can Southerners in the US be to publish such silly statements? You sound like some of the Russian or Chinese politicians.

...

not sure about Russian or Chinese politician but def. a Trump follower.

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  #46 (permalink)
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I think that you are still living in the 19th century. How backwardish can Southerners in the US be to publish such silly statements? You sound like some of the Russian or Chinese politicians.

Please do some research and stop insulting foreigners, other religious groups or minorities such as homosexuals. One of my neighbours is an Italian, another one a homosexual (who has adopted two kids) and a third one is a moslem from Kurdistan. I am friends with all of them.

You of anyone would know about Germany and the euro. I appreciate your local perspective on the matter.

I agreed with you completely until you hypocritically asked not to insult foreigners and did the very same thing.

But as an american from the south some of us still believe that homosexuality is a sin against GOD. I have friends like you mention from different faiths, no faith, and homosexual friends as well. I don't judge their choices, only my own. But some of us believe The Bible and it's truths. You want to call it backwardish and ignorant, go ahead. But don't get offended about someone disagreeing with you and then insist they are ignorant because they believe different from you.

Maybe this guy you called out got what he deserved for stirring the pot, but don't throw some blanket statement out there about the dumb southerners and their backward ways. There are alot of great people here.

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  #47 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Group B: France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Malta and Cyprus.

France in Group B..... !?

... but I still agree with Soros : Germany should leave the Euro to give the rest of the Eurozone a realistic chance of finding some form of equilibrium; it will be impossible to do so with Germany in the mix. As Germany would refuse to leave - too much to lose by doing so - the Eurozone is screwed.

Next on the agenda : Brexit !


Last edited by jtrade; January 12th, 2016 at 07:20 AM.
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  #48 (permalink)
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dnkhoward2 View Post
I agreed with you completely until you hypocritically asked not to insult foreigners and did the very same thing.

But as an american from the south some of us still believe that homosexuality is a sin against GOD. I have friends like you mention from different faiths, no faith, and homosexual friends as well. I don't judge their choices, only my own. But some of us believe The Bible and it's truths. You want to call it backwardish and ignorant, go ahead. But don't get offended about someone disagreeing with you and then insist they are ignorant because they believe different from you.

Maybe this guy you called out got what he deserved for stirring the pot, but don't throw some blanket statement out there about the dumb southerners and their backward ways. There are alot of great people here.

Yes, I did the very same thing to make him feel the way I felt. And yes, I agree that there are lot of great people in the South. And yes, Donald Trump was not born in the South but in New York City.

The key point that you mentioned is "that you do not judge their choices". This is what makes for a peaceful and friendly living together. However, any society is founded upon a common set of rules and beliefs. But those are not necessarily religious.

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  #49 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Yes, I did the very same thing to make him feel the way I felt. And yes, I agree that there are lot of great people in the South. And yes, Donald Trump was not born in the South but in New York City.

The key point that you mentioned is "that you do not judge their choices". This is what makes for a peaceful and friendly living together. However, any society is founded upon a common set of rules and beliefs. But those are not necessarily religious.

@Fat Tails, not only are you a tremendous coder and trader, you are a true gentleman. You are a great asset to this community and I appreciate you sir.

Daniel

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  #50 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Europe is different from the United States. It has a long history of national states, which explains its current federal structure.

Britain:

First of all Britain would never accept to cede power to a Central European Government. Also Britain does not participate in the ESM (European Stability Mechanism). It share in financing the permanent Greek deficit is zero. It is the German taxpayer who carries the burden to finance the Greek party.

France:

France is much more reluctant to cede powers to a Central Government than Germany is. However, they may change position, once they need someone else to finance the budget deficit.


Germany:

Germany has been the paymaster of Europe since its inception. Germans are now tired of paying for the permanent inefficiencies of Southern European economies. This is even more true of Skandinavian countries. Norway has not joined the European Union, and Sweden and Danmark have kept their currency. Finland is the European country most opposed to throw more fresh money after the Greeks.


I think that there is a strong cultural difference between Northern and Southern Europe. Southern European politicians have a natural tendency to promise more than they can pay for. The shadow economy is flourishing in Southern Europe. Citizens are not declaring taxes, which further contributes to the problem.


Three solutions to the problem:

(1) Reforming the structure of the European Union with a Central Economic Government. The Government should then have its own budget, which would require specific European taxes and control of expenditure by the European Parliament.

(2) The second model would see a rigid structure as it is implemented today, but would allow some of the debt ridden economies to devaluate its currencies.

(3) The third solution would be the slow decay of the Euro currency, probably triggered by outside events.

I do not believe that there is an option for something called "Europe à deux vitesses", which describes a split of the Euro zone into a robust Northern economy and a Southern inflationary economy running higher budget deficits.


What is Europe ?

The point is that Europe is an extremely inhomogenous strucutre. There are countries like Bulgaria with a per capita income of € 7,772 or Romania with € 10,034. On the other side of the scale there are countries like Ireland with an income of € 51,356, Austria with € 51,306 or Denmark with € 56,147.

Now compare these figures with the US. The richest states, Delaware and Alaska have a per capita income of just above $ 60,000 per annum, while the poorest state - Mississippi - has a per capita income of just below $ 30,000 per year. By the way this figure is absolutely comparable to Greece.

To summarize: In Europe the per capita income of the poorest country is about 7.5 times lower than the per capita income of the richest country. In the USA - which did not have half of its states being rules by communists 25 years ago - the per capita income of the poorest country is only 2 times lower than the per capita income of the richest country.

But then in Europe, it is not the poorest countries that have recently joined which are creating the problem. It is the comparatively rich Southern European economies which do not comply with the strict rules of controlling government expenditure. I think this is more of a cultural problem. Now Germany is blamed for maintaining the minimum of discipline which is needed to avoid an implosion of the Euro. Those who cry loudest are left wing economists who want to maintain the state run Ponzi schemes and feed them with new money. I am definitely against transferring more money to the comparatively rich and lazy. Greece is just a stupid distraction from more serious problems as the various war zones around Europe and the hundreds of thousands of refugees we need to cope with.

I am with Paul Krugmann and with the German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. The best economical cure for Greece would have been to reintroduce the Drachma and devalue it. This cure has helped Argentine to find its way to sustained economic growth. But politically, the Greek people would not have accepted this measure and (wrongly) interpreted as an expulsion from Europe. Therefore the whole thing ended with a compromise. Things will calm down now, and co-operation will again prevail over demagoguery.

Excellent analysis of the European situation. Of course many months have passed and the Greece odissey is in the rearview mirror. Personally I think it was despicable both how the Greeks were treated and, at the same time, the gamble that Tsipras took with a referendum which, in the end, harmed Greece more than not.

@Fat Tails, of the 3 options you listed I believe that 'technically' what should happen if the 'EU project' is to succeed long term is go down the Option 1 route, i.e. the creation of a United States of Europe structure where not only economic policy but also fiscal policy is centralised.

Of course that won't fly in reality. No head of state/politician will ever relinquish such powers to a higher authority and de facto abdicate their country's sovereignty. I don't see it happening anyway.
So we're stuck with huge cultural differences, especially between the northern and the 'peripheral economies' with the public opinion of the former negatively biased towards the latter. Who can blame them? When a German pensioner who's always paid taxes lives now on a pension of 1,300 Euros but then hears that we have in Greece ex postal workers on pensions as high as 4,000 Euros (extreme cases probably but, still) and Greece/Italy (for instance) are not known for honoring taxes as much as them, I would probably be pretty mad too.

On the other hand, I agreed with Varoufakis when he said that the proposals put forward by the EU (signing a deal for a new loan, only to pay the debt of the previous one) was simply akin to kicking the can down the road. He said that he explained from a technical point of view to his EU counterparts why that was not viable but he could not engage them in an economics discussion. If true, it's disappointing.

Anyway, we are where we are.

I don't understand Option 2. How can you devalue a common EU currency in a EU country but not in another?

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