I believe we should all examine this emotion when we trade. I've heard some say, "I don't trade unless there is blood in the street!". Extreme Greed is sweeping the world. Those who are offended easily have lost their humility and are worshiping the wrong Gods, e.g., money, people, places, things and you see guys blowing their accounts all of the time - Hedge Fund Managers too. I like watching hedge fund managers and how they try to get themselves on boards so they can split the company up or somehow make boards dance to their value plays. In the 70s, 80s, 90s; if you ignored business cycles, you were screwed. I told a friend 70 was a bad year, 80 was a bad year, 90 was a bad year; and I said 2000 will be a bad year. My friend ignored my advice, kept his money in the market and lost 3/4 of his retirement money. How can you persuade someone who is totally blinded by greed? If you can tolerate the draw down, you have no problem; except when your investors all want their money back. Bill Ackman comes to mind with Valeant Pharmaceuticals. He's notorious keeping a loosing stock till it come around while his investors are pounding, yelling, and screaming. Valeant is a Canadian Stock whose pharmaceuticals are bought by a government health care system and they overprice their old pharmaceuticals because it not a free market. On the other hand, Valeant tried to sell it pharmaceuticals in the U.S. in a free market capitalist system and our government is questioning their high prices. That stock is caught between two different health care systems and can easily be replaced by generics. I'm a buy and hold investor. I'm not a day trader. I tried it with Forex and I was playing chicken with the Bank of Japan. My timing is terrible with forex. Soros is the master. There was a guy who cornered the English Pound, Mark Rich. He somehow cheated and had to go to Switzerland and his wife got Bill Clinton to let him off. He used to buy oil from Edi Amine for a quarter a barrel and load it on ships and take it to the refinery. He made out pretty good. One of my passions is to some day be a floor trader in the pits at the CME. Man, that would be quite a ride. There was a guy named pit bull who used to trade one contract at a time. Friday, he bought out of the money puts; because in his gut he felt Monday would be a big down day. I think he was in the stock futures pit. Monday, stocks went down 1000 points. He was up in his office selling the puts, while the people who made fun of him were loosing their shirts. It was a 5 million dollar day for him and he calmly went down and bought some seats on the exchange. Jesse Livermore made 5 million too on the 1929crash. He shorted stocks overvalued. But later on, he started gambling; he got a divorce and put a bullet in his head. Extreme Greed will get you if you don't have a high power of the Lord. Happy New Year. Hope we all do good this year!
i definitely agree the best solution for the EUR zone would be if germany left the EUR. the EUR is very bad for the european idea. with such different economies it is insane to put then all together in the same currency.
though it will never happen. France and Marine le Pen is the hope of europe to terminate the EUR experiment. i am from germany and recently moved to the U.S. for work. but honestly, it does not really matter anymore what germany does or does not do. the german government is just the most criminal in the entire world and suffering from severe insanety. and the people many are just stupid sleepers. it is now a fallen country. Actually I consider myself a refugee from this insanety.
Last edited by BTC2013; January 4th, 2016 at 12:04 AM.
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It is not only Germany that should leave the Euro, but it would be all countries which do not have the habit of making electoral gifts and promises that they cannot keep. There is a cultural gap between the Latin countries which have a long history of not collecting taxes and overspending and Central and Northern Europe.
Therefore you would rather see two groups of countries
Group A: Germany, Finnland, Estonia, Lithuania Letland, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, Czech Republic, Slowakia, Austria, Slowenia, who can pretty well manage their budgets and live with a stronger currency.
Group B: France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Malta and Cyprus.
The reason that the EURO does not work for Europe is a strong cultural heritage that makes it impossible to adopt to a common currency. Having a common currency for Central/Northern and Latin Europe makes as much sense as having a common currency for the US and Mexico.
I think that you are still living in the 19th century. How backwardish can Southerners in the US be to publish such silly statements? You sound like some of the Russian or Chinese politicians.
Please do some research and stop insulting foreigners, other religious groups or minorities such as homosexuals. One of my neighbours is an Italian, another one a homosexual (who has adopted two kids) and a third one is a moslem from Kurdistan. I am friends with all of them.
You of anyone would know about Germany and the euro. I appreciate your local perspective on the matter.
I agreed with you completely until you hypocritically asked not to insult foreigners and did the very same thing.
But as an american from the south some of us still believe that homosexuality is a sin against GOD. I have friends like you mention from different faiths, no faith, and homosexual friends as well. I don't judge their choices, only my own. But some of us believe The Bible and it's truths. You want to call it backwardish and ignorant, go ahead. But don't get offended about someone disagreeing with you and then insist they are ignorant because they believe different from you.
Maybe this guy you called out got what he deserved for stirring the pot, but don't throw some blanket statement out there about the dumb southerners and their backward ways. There are alot of great people here.
... but I still agree with Soros : Germany should leave the Euro to give the rest of the Eurozone a realistic chance of finding some form of equilibrium; it will be impossible to do so with Germany in the mix. As Germany would refuse to leave - too much to lose by doing so - the Eurozone is screwed.
Next on the agenda : Brexit !
Last edited by jtrade; January 12th, 2016 at 06:20 AM.
Yes, I did the very same thing to make him feel the way I felt. And yes, I agree that there are lot of great people in the South. And yes, Donald Trump was not born in the South but in New York City.
The key point that you mentioned is "that you do not judge their choices". This is what makes for a peaceful and friendly living together. However, any society is founded upon a common set of rules and beliefs. But those are not necessarily religious.
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Excellent analysis of the European situation. Of course many months have passed and the Greece odissey is in the rearview mirror. Personally I think it was despicable both how the Greeks were treated and, at the same time, the gamble that Tsipras took with a referendum which, in the end, harmed Greece more than not.
@Fat Tails, of the 3 options you listed I believe that 'technically' what should happen if the 'EU project' is to succeed long term is go down the Option 1 route, i.e. the creation of a United States of Europe structure where not only economic policy but also fiscal policy is centralised.
Of course that won't fly in reality. No head of state/politician will ever relinquish such powers to a higher authority and de facto abdicate their country's sovereignty. I don't see it happening anyway.
So we're stuck with huge cultural differences, especially between the northern and the 'peripheral economies' with the public opinion of the former negatively biased towards the latter. Who can blame them? When a German pensioner who's always paid taxes lives now on a pension of 1,300 Euros but then hears that we have in Greece ex postal workers on pensions as high as 4,000 Euros (extreme cases probably but, still) and Greece/Italy (for instance) are not known for honoring taxes as much as them, I would probably be pretty mad too.
On the other hand, I agreed with Varoufakis when he said that the proposals put forward by the EU (signing a deal for a new loan, only to pay the debt of the previous one) was simply akin to kicking the can down the road. He said that he explained from a technical point of view to his EU counterparts why that was not viable but he could not engage them in an economics discussion. If true, it's disappointing.
Anyway, we are where we are.
I don't understand Option 2. How can you devalue a common EU currency in a EU country but not in another?
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