The market constantly changes. BUT What stays the same?? - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


The market constantly changes. BUT What stays the same??
Updated: Views / Replies:3,871 / 48
Created: by xylem Attachments:1

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 1  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The market constantly changes. BUT What stays the same??

  #11 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,859 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,254 received


trendisyourfriend View Post
is it not Ed Seykota who wrote: The markets are the same now as they were 5 or 10 years ago, because they keep changing - just like they did then

Did he say that with or without his banjo?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
  #12 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
LONDON UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IB XTRADER Jigsaw
Favorite Futures: CL YM BUND NQ
 
Posts: 60 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 20 given, 13 received

For me I believe overbought and oversold are constants in the market. When people always talk of the market changing it feels like their saying you can never be a consistently profitable trader because the market will eventually make your trading plan invalid.

How true is this for somebody who doesnt have a mechanical trading plan?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to xylem for this post:
 
  #13 (permalink)
Every Day I'm a n00b
San Tan Valley, AZ/USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT7
Broker/Data: IB, Tallinex, & 10 others.
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
FABRICATORX's Avatar
 
Posts: 195 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 693 given, 160 received


A conversation with my mentor (professional trader i.e. profitable):

Him: [The market] changes every 3 months.

Me: How do you mean?

Him: What was working, stops working, and you have to change all your setups.

Me: Does it cycle? Like what stopped working x days ago, started working again?

Him: Not usually.


Can anyone else corroborate that?

-Jimmy
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FABRICATORX for this post:
 
  #14 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
Canary Islands, Spain
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: OA
Favorite Futures: What Moves
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 701 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 474 given, 1,398 received


FABRICATORX View Post
A conversation with my mentor (professional trader i.e. profitable):

Him: [The market] changes every 3 months.

Me: How do you mean?

Him: What was working, stops working, and you have to change all your setups.

Me: Does it cycle? Like what stopped working x days ago, started working again?

Him: Not usually.


Can anyone else corroborate that?

Everything works some of the time.

In any case, basing your profitability on static setups is asking for trouble. Need a more dynamic way to trade. Are you sure your mentor is a 'professional profitable' trader?

Ask yourself: how do I become consistently profitable in a market that does not behave consistently?

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
  #15 (permalink)
Every Day I'm a n00b
San Tan Valley, AZ/USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT7
Broker/Data: IB, Tallinex, & 10 others.
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
FABRICATORX's Avatar
 
Posts: 195 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 693 given, 160 received


Anagami View Post
Everything works some of the time.

In any case, basing your profitability on static setups is asking for trouble. Need a more dynamic way to trade. Are you sure your mentor is a 'professional profitable' trader?

Ask yourself: how do I become consistently profitable in a market that does not behave consistently?

I agree, static methods are a fools errand. If the market is a living, breathing organism with emotions, why would a single setup always work? I often reference the turtle traders method, and their modern results being somewhat flat.

I often ponder why certain setups work, then stop. Could it be that the reason we think they work, isn't actually the reason they work? You know the cliché, trader Jack makes huge returns making haphazard trades, writes book, gets interviewed by msnbc. Turns out it was just a bull market, and he's an idiot.

Sent from my SM-N900T using Tapatalk

-Jimmy
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FABRICATORX for this post:
 
  #16 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
Canary Islands, Spain
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: OA
Favorite Futures: What Moves
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 701 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 474 given, 1,398 received


FABRICATORX View Post
Could it be that the reason we think they work, isn't actually the reason they work? You know the cliché, trader Jack makes huge returns making haphazard trades, writes book, gets interviewed by msnbc. Turns out it was just a bull market, and he's an idiot.

That's just it. It does not occur to most traders to ask whether their setups actually 'worked' in the first place. Could it be that the profitability of their static strategies was merely a function of randomness?? That they 'worked' as a side-effect of something else? That the profit targets being hit had nothing to do with their particular setup??

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
  #17 (permalink)
Every Day I'm a n00b
San Tan Valley, AZ/USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT7
Broker/Data: IB, Tallinex, & 10 others.
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
FABRICATORX's Avatar
 
Posts: 195 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 693 given, 160 received


Anagami View Post
That's just it. It does not occur to most traders to ask whether their setups actually 'worked' in the first place. Could it be that the profitability of their static strategies was merely a function of randomness?? That they 'worked' as a side-effect of something else? That the profit targets being hit had nothing to do with their particular setup??

Hmm, then it comes down to the trader either:

1. Accepting that he found something that works, but doesn't know why, and being ok with that.

2. Found something that works, and he "knows" why it works (albeit pompously).

3....not sure if he's right on how it works, but will seek to prove himself wrong to see if he's right (which is faster to disprove something than proving something to be correct.)

Am I on the right track?

Sent from my SM-N900T using Tapatalk

-Jimmy
Reply With Quote
 
  #18 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
Canary Islands, Spain
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: OA
Favorite Futures: What Moves
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 701 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 474 given, 1,398 received

I can only comment about my own path as a trader, after 10 years of on and off trading (including a stint at a prop firm).

1. stop looking for magical chart patterns that unlock the market and hand billions of dollars over effortlessly

2. focus on making GOOD trades, which essentially means buying low and selling high (this applies equally well in trends, relative to trend's progression), getting in at the right time (when the large operators are!), managing risk (for me personally that means taking a free position ASAP, even at the risk of being stopped out of a trade too early), and letting profits run without making excuses (too many traders look for chart patterns that give them reasons to exit their winners early).

Hope that helps.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
  #19 (permalink)
Every Day I'm a n00b
San Tan Valley, AZ/USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT7
Broker/Data: IB, Tallinex, & 10 others.
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
FABRICATORX's Avatar
 
Posts: 195 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 693 given, 160 received


Anagami View Post
I can only comment about my own path as a trader, after 10 years of on and off trading (including a stint at a prop firm).

1. stop looking for magical chart patterns that unlock the market and hand billions of dollars over effortlessly

2. focus on making GOOD trades, which essentially means buying low and selling high (this applies equally well in trends, relative to trend's progression), getting in at the right time (when the large operators are!), managing risk (for me personally that means taking a free position ASAP, even at the risk of being stopped out of a trade too early), and letting profits run without making excuses (too many traders look for chart patterns that give them reasons to exit their winners early).

Hope that helps.

It does, thank you for your time writing that.

I recall (in an old notebook) that the goal shouldn't be to directly make money, but rather it should be to simply trade well. Oh I just remembered, it was that decision matrix thread. Basically, you either worked the plan, or you didn't.

You can't directly control exactly how many ticks/pips you made, but you CAN control EXACTLY how well you traded.

Sent from my SM-N900T using Tapatalk

-Jimmy
Reply With Quote
 
  #20 (permalink)
Banned: Vendor self-promotion
Phoenix AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
DbPhoenix's Avatar
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 95 given, 1,543 received


Put simply, support is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference are willing to show their support by retarding, halting, and reversing the decline by buying. Resistance is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference attempt to retard, halt, and reverse a rise by selling. Whether one calls this money professional or big or smart or institutional or crooked or manipulative or (fill in the blank) is irrelevant. If repeated attempts to sell below this support level are met by buying which is sufficient to turn price back, these little reversals will eventually form a line, or zone. Ditto with resistance.

A swing high or low represents a point at which traders are no longer able to find trades, i.e., either buyers are no longer willing to pay the ask or sellers are no longer willing to lower it. Whether that point represents important support or resistance will be seen the next time traders push price in that direction. But everyone knows this point, even if they aren't following a chart. It exists independently of the trader and his lines and charts and indicators and displays. It is the point beyond which price could not go. Hence its importance, both to those who want to see price move higher and those who don't.

Therefore, before coming to any conclusions about what “works” or “doesn’t work”, and thus does or does not provide an edge, one ought to keep in mind that a given event -- such as price seemingly finding support or resistance at a trendline (or moving average, candlestick, Pivot Point, Fib level or whatever) -- may be only incidental to what is truly providing that support or resistance.

A fundamental misunderstanding of how "indicators" are calculated and what they're supposed to do can lead to all sorts of off-task behavior. We think we see the indicators indicating something, or not, and believe we have made an important discovery. We then devote our efforts to improving the hit rate and the probability of whatever it is we think the indicator is indicating when our efforts ought to be focused on determining whether or not the indicator is actually indicating what we think it's indicating. In most if not all cases, it isn't.

Consider the virgin being tossed into the volcano: sometimes it results in a great crop, sometimes it doesn't. Maybe tossing her in earlier or later will change the probability of a healthy crop. Maybe two virgins are better than one. Maybe six. Maybe tall virgins are more effective than short ones. And surely age is important. But does the robustness of the crop really have anything to do with tossing the virgin into the volcano in the first place?

The money under the pillow is not evidence of the existence of the tooth fairy, and spring will arrive regardless of whether the virgin is tossed into the volcano or not.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to DbPhoenix for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > The market constantly changes. BUT What stays the same??

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
if the stock price stays about the same, this strategy works; crazyhorse Options on Futures 3 March 14th, 2013 06:02 PM
Constantly Updated Symbol CSV for Ninjatrader patroqueeet NinjaTrader 1 March 8th, 2013 07:51 AM
Entry stop order stays active? EasyLanguage alexfdv Open E Cry 6 January 16th, 2013 05:21 PM
Funds Bet on Mortgage Sector Even as Housing Stays Weak Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 April 30th, 2012 12:20 PM
Markets are constantly changing and are never exactly the same trendisyourfriend Traders Hideout 11 March 29th, 2012 11:28 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:26 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-14 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.221.76.68