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When will this bull market end?


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When will this bull market end?

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  #1 (permalink)
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I don't know, but I'm sure going to make a lot of money shorting it all the way back down.

You can time the market. That doesn't mean you just guess and start shorting the top of the market. You have to wait for the market to start trending down and then you time the market and go short.

If you read any financial planning advice on the internet it just says to still all your money in a mutual fund or index fund no matter where the market is and then wait 40 years. FUCK THAT.

The people that made money in this last bull market were not the ones that just randomly stuck their money in the market and hoped that it went back up. The people that made money let the market crash and burn and then went all in. Buy low sell high.

So, I don't know when there will be another recession. But, I do know that there will be one and that I will have money available to profit from it.

Take a look at my picture. This is very simple. You will know there is a top when prices go back below the 21 EMA/TMA and then tries to retest the high. After the retest fails, go short. You will know there is a bottom when prices go back above the 21 EMA/TMA and then re tests the bottom and then goes up.

I am not trying to predict any booms and busts. I am waiting for booms and busts to happen and then capitalizing on the fact.

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  #3 (permalink)
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and...good luck with that!

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  #4 (permalink)
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Quoting 
I don't know, but I'm sure going to make a lot of money shorting it all the way back down.

You can time the market. That doesn't mean you just guess and start shorting the top of the market. You have to wait for the market to start trending down and then you time the market and go short.

Please enlighten us on how you will know when you see a market top.


Quoting 
If you read any financial planning advice on the internet it just says to still all your money in a mutual fund or index fund no matter where the market is and then wait 40 years. FUCK THAT.

The US markets have a positive skew. Can your waiting for the market top and riding the move down beat the cumulative returns of a compounding year over year positive skew? I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and remind you that 401ks and pensions flood into the markets every month (buying) and there's nothing you can do about it.


Quoting 
The people that made money in this last bull market were not the ones that just randomly stuck their money in the market and hoped that it went back up. The people that made money let the market crash and burn and then went all in. Buy low sell high.

That's great. Golf is easy too, just get the ball into the hole..easy (not). Your comment is frustrating and elementary at best as you haven't given any thought into what you're actually talking about. But your comment begs the question, how do you know when the exact bottom will be? You comment about going "all in" just has me thinking that you 1)have no concept of proper risk and money management and 2) you have no idea what the hell you're talking about.


Quoting 
So, I don't know when there will be another recession. But, I do know that there will be one and that I will have money available to profit from it.

Your comment here is as baseless as me telling you the sun will blow up one day and vanquish all earth including everything in the solar system, when? I don't know exactly but one day.

You keep waiting for the market top. I'm going to ride this elevator up while you wait.

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  #5 (permalink)
western NY
 
 
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Consider Greenspan's irrational exuberance comment was on December 5, 1996 so in this first Nasdaq chart people had thought the bull was already overpriced.



The real move was yet to come though


Trying to short bull markets is foolish on many levels. I think you can buy puts on select companies but just sitting short the index beyond the cost of the position is paying an enormous opportunity cost when you are wrong.
Even when you are correct the central bank intervention is going to take a bunch of your profit.

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  #6 (permalink)
Phoenix AZ
 
 
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TennisOrDie View Post
I don't know, but I'm sure going to make a lot of money shorting it all the way back down.

You can time the market. That doesn't mean you just guess and start shorting the top of the market. You have to wait for the market to start trending down and then you time the market and go short.

If you read any financial planning advice on the internet it just says to still all your money in a mutual fund or index fund no matter where the market is and then wait 40 years. FUCK THAT.

The people that made money in this last bull market were not the ones that just randomly stuck their money in the market and hoped that it went back up. The people that made money let the market crash and burn and then went all in. Buy low sell high.

So, I don't know when there will be another recession. But, I do know that there will be one and that I will have money available to profit from it.

Wait for it to break its trend first, then fail to make a higher high, or even come close. See '00 and '07.

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  #7 (permalink)
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DbPhoenix View Post
Wait for it to break its trend first, then fail to make a higher high, or even come close. See '00 and '07.

This is exactly what I'm waiting for. I'm waiting for it to cross below the 21 EMA. That's when the bull market will be over. I'm not trying to predict when it will happen, I just want to profit when it does happen.

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  #8 (permalink)
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fminus View Post
Please enlighten us on how you will know when you see a market top.



The US markets have a positive skew. Can your waiting for the market top and riding the move down beat the cumulative returns of a compounding year over year positive skew? I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and remind you that 401ks and pensions flood into the markets every month (buying) and there's nothing you can do about it.



That's great. Golf is easy too, just get the ball into the hole..easy (not). Your comment is frustrating and elementary at best as you haven't given any thought into what you're actually talking about. But your comment begs the question, how do you know when the exact bottom will be? You comment about going "all in" just has me thinking that you 1)have no concept of proper risk and money management and 2) you have no idea what the hell you're talking about.



Your comment here is as baseless as me telling you the sun will blow up one day and vanquish all earth including everything in the solar system, when? I don't know exactly but one day.

You keep waiting for the market top. I'm going to ride this elevator up while you wait.

Someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning. So you're telling me that this bull market will last forever? Are you really upset because I don't think it will and I want to make money when it crashes? And I'm not trying to call a top. I'm waiting for the new highs to fail to make new tops then break the upwards trend line. Then once it starts trending down I'm going to go in short.

How do I know where the bottom is? When it hits a bottom and then starts going back up. Are you really that stupid? I'm not trying to predict tops and bottoms. I'm waiting for tops and bottoms to form and then making my moves.

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  #9 (permalink)
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TennisOrDie if you make one more ridiculous bullshit filled post your will be banned for trolling.

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  #10 (permalink)
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If you look at how the market has responded to domestic news as of late, which is not exactly cheery in terms of our business outlook, it shows the market is still pretty strong. Maybe a little indecisive at times, but when don't you have that? If the market were ready to take a dump, bears would pound it at every major financial report. Which hasn't happened in a while, aside from Friday morning (which wasn't even US news). Whatever you're looking for is probably at least a few years down the road. And don't get me wrong, I have dreams about going all in on a huge ride down, and then just buying once everyone is scared off and not even looking at the markets for a while, but I suspect that will only be a once or twice in a lifetime thing for me, since I was not old enough in '08. It is likely best to focus on the here and now, so as not to miss out on all you could have when you get to hit the homerun that flies a mile out of the stadium. Just my thoughts.

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TennisOrDie View Post
I don't know, but I'm sure going to make a lot of money shorting it all the way back down.

You can time the market. That doesn't mean you just guess and start shorting the top of the market. You have to wait for the market to start trending down and then you time the market and go short.

If you read any financial planning advice on the internet it just says to still all your money in a mutual fund or index fund no matter where the market is and then wait 40 years. FUCK THAT.

The people that made money in this last bull market were not the ones that just randomly stuck their money in the market and hoped that it went back up. The people that made money let the market crash and burn and then went all in. Buy low sell high.

So, I don't know when there will be another recession. But, I do know that there will be one and that I will have money available to profit from it.

Take a look at my picture. This is very simple. You will know there is a top when prices go back below the 21 EMA/TMA and then tries to retest the high. After the retest fails, go short. You will know there is a bottom when prices go back above the 21 EMA/TMA and then re tests the bottom and then goes up.

I am not trying to predict any booms and busts. I am waiting for booms and busts to happen and then capitalizing on the fact.

How do you know it's not going to drop below your 21 ema and then bounce back to new highs in the following weeks?

...We're in a bull market.

If you don't believe it then you might aswell start selling premium now, there's no point waiting on a moving average.

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