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Inter market relationships
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Inter market relationships

  #1 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Amarillo Texas/USA
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: none
Favorite Futures: Stocks
Posts: 63 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 30 given, 12 received

Inter market relationships

Unfortunately, we are in world where globalization has taken hand. Say, yah, about for 12 or 13 years ago.
This, unfortunately, has to be taken into account.
There are neural networks working on this alone.

We are past the point where you daddy or your daddy's daddy would chart by pencil and a ruler a chart from the newspaper or do some research from Value Line.

Major Money flows in the world, money is leaving the bond market to safe haven. Money is leaving Europe to the U.S stock market.
The safe haven is the U.S stock market. They have to put the money somewhere, large, large money.

Corporate cash at hand, alone, do you know how much cash on hand, these major U.S. companies have on hand?, A lot.
Take a look at Apple's balance sheet along with several other major corporations. This money has to be placed somewhere. It is flowing out of bonds into American stocks.

So, these neural networks assessing inter-markets, more than likely, trying to sell you something. They have formulas including the S&P 500, the price of Gold, and 13 other ways of crap to heaven.

But look at the interrelation of the overall market place to the S&P alone. Money flows are going into the American Stock Market. Out of Europe.
The money is flowing out of bond market into U.S. stocks. A fool's rush, more than likely is, but respect a little background and history here.

Excuse my language, but screw the neural networks. The major money flow is now going into the U.S. stock market. All these boys with their neural networks and inter market analysis are out there to make a living.

Screw all that nonsense, simply go to a historical chart on the e-mini, find a single moving average where support is on a daily chart. I am not going to tell you the number on that one. Find it for yourself. Now, save that single moving average on the e-mini historically as a study set. I have three single moving averages because it's a little vague.

That is your neural network right there. The single moving average on the daily e-mini. Take out all the bullshit and all the crap. The single moving average for the daily e-mini is your neural network.

Now, try applying, once you have found this single moving average to the instrument that you are trading to different time frames on your charting. Apply this single moving average to different time frames in your charting. Take it to a five minute chart. Extremely responsive there. Right to the bunny with that. That is your neural network. Take it to a 15 minute chart, you want to find out when to get in and get out, right there on the 15 minute chart. Simply the single moving average from the daily e-mini. And then, use that single moving average from the daily e-mini and apply this to different time frames on the instrument that you are trading and see if that is of value to you or not.

In today's trading, globalization is definitely, a factor to consider.

In today's market, people still have to eat and people still have to make a living.

I have found this recently, the single moving average to the e-mini, but how to apply this. I am long in Soybeans now. Soybeans are dropping, I am still safe with my entry.

Find your e-mini daily moving average, take that to an hourly chart on Soybeans, we are right there. But people have to eat and we have an entire food industry dependent on Soybeans. So, on an hourly chart, our neural network of the daily moving average of the e-mini as a single moving average brought to an hourly chart on Soybeans is quite effective.

But as I said before, people have got to eat and an entire food industry relies on Soybeans, and we are hitting Spring soon.

Last edited by e4williams; March 25th, 2015 at 07:43 PM.
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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Normal Wizard
Sydney, NSW, Australia
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader with Jigsaw DOM
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This post has been selected as an answer to the original posters question Answer

What are you saying? Intermarket analysis is rubbish and sma is king? Intermarket analysis can be useful for confirming breakouts looking at correlated markets (that's how I use them anyway), everyone trades different and ofc u don't need to use it.

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
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  #4 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
London, UK
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Interactive Brokers
Broker/Data: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Portfolio ETFs
Posts: 13 since Jun 2014
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An SMA is certainly no substitute for a neural network.

As TickedOff points out, intermarket analysis can be useful. The main thing to keep in mind is that inter-market relationships are not static, but constantly shifting. They're also non-linear. This is why neural networks and other self-learning AI processes can be particularly well suited to studying them - the network learns the changing relationships and adapts/evolves the parameters of its analysis.

As for Soybeans I don't look at them, but best of luck!


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  #5 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
western NY
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Python
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Posts: 42 since Apr 2015
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e4williams, a wise man would at least know the basics of what they are talking about before bashing something they don't understand.
By neural network I think you really mean to say machine learning. NN are just not a good choice given the noisy nature of market data.

A moving average works great with no volatility and Fed QE buffering all the draw downs to create a steady trend.
Good luck with that strategy going forward.

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