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Webinar: The Quantitative Discretionary Trader - Art and Science w/Adam Grimes
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Webinar: The Quantitative Discretionary Trader - Art and Science w/Adam Grimes

  #81 (permalink)
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I could not attend live, but watched the webinar this morning.

lots of food for thought,

TY Adam and TY for sharing some of your findings.

made this little R script to remind me of the random walk issue.
R-Fiddle

(not true random, I used this http://stackoverflow.com/questions/21991130/simulating-a-random-walk)

I was not familiar with adam and his work.
TY @BigMike for introducing him.

edit:
I come back (again) to edit this,
because I feel I am not giving Adam's work enough justice.
The material on his website is very good.
I watched the first lectures of his course today:
very high quality and didactically well conceived .


Last edited by puma; March 19th, 2015 at 02:51 PM.
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  #82 (permalink)
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Watched it, and really enjoyed it. His analysis reminds me very much of @steenbab's quantitative work; he shows, for example, that the average return following weakness is greater than that following strength, in US equities. Having that kind of statistic gives a real edge IMO. Thanks to Adam for doing the webinar...

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  #83 (permalink)
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Great webinar, very clear and easy to follow and the q&a at the end had some great questions as well.

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  #84 (permalink)
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16 randomly generated charts in excel using RAND(). Quite amazing to see the trends. These were the first 16 I generated and not cherry picked. Only maybe 2 look a little "random"; the rest look totally like they came from a day in the life of ES.

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  #85 (permalink)
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josh View Post
16 randomly generated charts in excel using RAND(). Quite amazing to see the trends. These were the first 16 I generated and not cherry picked. Only maybe 2 look a little "random"; the rest look totally like they came from a day in the life of ES.

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There's some great double tops and bottoms in there!

What I'd like to do is start a thread where I take random screenshots of real data and compare it to randomly generated data in chart form side by side. I want to see if people can tell the difference.


Last edited by Itchymoku; March 21st, 2015 at 07:56 AM.
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  #86 (permalink)
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I liked the webinar a lot but how we can distinguish when price is random or not? Trendlines do not work, inter markets correlation is in the same league as elliot waves or fibonacci, market or volume profile do not provide an edge then what's left?

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  #87 (permalink)
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Teaching lol!! (joking)

Consistency over time
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  #88 (permalink)
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What's left is human nature and a more macro understanding of fundamental moves.

Human nature as in psychological impact of fear and greed. These provide a lot of opportunity.

Fundamental as in form a hypothesis the market is moving higher, then buy either retracements or weakness as well as breakouts or strength.

Adam basically said the market makes fundamental decisions and the action in between is largely random. I would add to that the action between is largely designed to weed out the weak hands. Once you realize that you can alter your approach to increase your chance of success.

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  #89 (permalink)
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... to avoid suicide - or teaching

Adam references a paper in his course series,
that shows that even untrained subjects can identify random walk data over natural data.

...this and many more around the topic "randomness"

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  #90 (permalink)
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Does anyone know what family of instruments does his study includes within the Futures asset class? Financials/Rates? Commodities?

Many thanks

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