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Webinar: The Quantitative Discretionary Trader - Art and Science w/Adam Grimes
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Webinar: The Quantitative Discretionary Trader - Art and Science w/Adam Grimes

  #141 (permalink)
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I've only glanced over the last two pages so this post might be redundant but I want to take the time and point out that Adam DOES NOT say that s/r levels are completely without merit. In fact he spends a lot of time in his book explaining s/r and how price acts around these levels. He just says that s/r levels should always be seen only as "potential s/r" and that he fact that price reversed at a level at an earlier time does not on it's own say anything about what the price is going to do at that level in the future. "It's obvious, just look at how price respects it" simply is not an acceptable reason in his opinion.

Adam also does not only trade pullbacks. He constantly reminds the reader that a trader should at least have a basic knowledge of ever kind of trade, even if it is just so that one is not blinded by a too narrow focus.

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  #142 (permalink)
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Have the book winners received their autographed books?

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  #143 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
I'd also like to say that people evolve with time. I have countless posts on futures.io (formerly BMT) that I would love to delete because they are embarrassingly wrong and misguided. Thankfully most of them are many years old and mostly buried.

At the time, I felt they weren't misguided obviously. Now I do. This tells us that people continue to evolve and gain experience.

I think you could look into your own trading history and find examples where you used to believe something wholeheartedly, but no longer do today, having proven yourself to be incorrect. Once you prove to yourself that a previous notion was flat wrong, you really gain a lot.

I think it best for me to bow out of this thread for now. It seems my posts upset a lot of people, and my goal is not to win an argument. At some point it is not worth my time to continue.

Mike

Mike, I have mentioned in one of my posts that you evolved as a trader and a writer(moderator).
I too regret saying some things here, BUT above all I have learned over the years on futures.io (formerly BMT), that FAILURE hates Practical and Pragmatical. To stay practical and pragmatical, one requires change, modesty, objective acknowledgment and flexibility. This is why dumping the old ways, is hard for many people and many times impossible for some.

Your battle in trading, business, and life is against yourself, and changing the way you think constantly.
This is the true meaning of unbiased, the battle against your own thoughts and beliefs.
What you went through is a natural cycle including setbacks, failures and dumping old ways.

"My games with the 9th world champion (Tigran Petrosian)broadened my understanding of chess. Had it not been for these two defeats, I would possibly not have reached the top in chess" Gary Kasparov

Matt

There is a risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
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  #144 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Have the book winners received their autographed books?

Mike

Hi Mike, not yet

cheers
Chris

Consistency over time
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  #145 (permalink)
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ourssolaire View Post
Many thanks to Adam for a great presentation (I'm your new greatest fan!) and to Big Mike for organizing it!

The stuff about markets being random most of the time was very well presented in terms of the balance between Momentum and Reversion to the Mean, and has caused me to take a break and reflect on what I am doing - trading "noise", effectively..

He has motivated me to embark on a quantitative study of my trading signals using his Event Study Methodology.... however the devil is in the details as usual..

I was wondering if anyone who watched (or maybe even the Guru himself!) could enlighten me as to how to deal with the situation when the cumulative baseline returns are NEGATIVE for following bars N+1, N+2..

We see this in bear markets such as CL lately, also GC. It does not make sense to subtract a negative baseline return, so I am thinking that if baseline is less than zero, set it to zero (basically ignore it).

Also, the baseline values I am getting further out (at N+2, N+3 ...) are simply multiples of the first value (N+1), or close enough.

i.e. Value(N+x) = Value(N+1) * x (approximately)

I have looked at daily data (1000 days) for CL,ES,GC so far and I always see the same pattern emerge, but it seems kind of artificial. Anyone else seeing the same thing, or have I got my code logic wrong? (latter is the most likely possibility!)

Cheers!

Use natural logs

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  #146 (permalink)
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Still wondering about what Futures he used for the statistical analysis he presented ... making conclusions on just Futures is as valid as finding the cure for cancer ... all cancers, without differentiating between types

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  #147 (permalink)
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Oysteryx View Post
Still wondering about what Futures he used for the statistical analysis he presented ... making conclusions on just Futures is as valid as finding the cure for cancer ... all cancers, without differentiating between types

You could say the same about grouping all Equities as one asset class, instead of breaking them down into sectors or individual underlines...

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  #148 (permalink)
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This thread went a bit off topic from the initial title, and there is heaps of knowledge over here. A bit funny how there was some misunderstanding not about the conclusion but about the it's delivery. In the end of the day, a buyer has to have a seller and vice versa - markets move and change, if one has been consistently profitable throughout years using moon phases then kudos to them - it's a statement it works for them. Trying to put some statistics on my discretionary entries I found it very difficult to script/program otherwise I would create a nice automated strategy. I have to agree with @Big Mike on what moves the markets, longer timeframes but it's waaaay over my current understanding of the market and I think I'm following my path to get there, understand A -> D but on a smaller, noisier scale for now.

Being over here for roughly 6 months I've really see I've evolved, it's sad to see @jlwade123 with a noble aim to come and learn leave the thread after being slightly challenged on a small misunderstanding (in my eyes) but the harsh reality is that it's not only about learning but also about changing, constantly being challenged by market - one can have a discussion but in the end the market will yield the results. I do agree that sometimes people who would like to learn are brushed aside a bit while "the gurus" are trading - but yet again, it's not a primary school, I'm happy to read/follow what they do as I can learn it from that. It's not learn to trade lessons by Big Mike, it's a forum and it's solely one's responsibility to use it as a great educational resource. I used to be frustrated with it as well until I realised that it's their good will to help - and they do, I always research to try find the answer myself (usually it's here on the forum) but none of my questions has ever been left unanswered or dismissed by the big guys (I'm not listing as I don't want to miss anybody) and I think it's quite freaking amazing because what is stopping them from pulling money from the market and then go watch TV, play golf, eat dinner etc. Again, sad to se her leave but if it was me I would lure them to review my journal for what it's worth and be happy if they bashed it, the more the better as it's not bashing, it's a great feedback on how I can improve.


The post is long so read this please
I know this is too long for anybody to read but to all of those who just skim through and don't know what's going on, a member has left (hopefully just the thread) after a discussion about ways of providing a proof for (or proving) S/R lines - it was challenging, professional, informative - overall you should read it. It starts around here: https://futures.io/traders-hideout/35189-webinar-quantitative-discretionary-trad...rimes-12.html#post487654

Additionally kudos goes to Mike for being a good (admin)moderator when it comes to handling the case.

All the best
Chris

Consistency over time

Last edited by chr1s; April 8th, 2015 at 06:47 PM. Reason: grammar
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  #149 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Have the book winners received their autographed books?

Mike

Not yet.

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  #150 (permalink)
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chr1s View Post
Hi Mike, not yet

cheers
Chris

Hi @Big Mike,

Just got the book - awesome! Thank again to you and Adam.

cheers
Chris

Consistency over time
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