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Coin Flip Exercise


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Coin Flip Exercise

  #1 (permalink)
 Java 
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I saw this posted somewhere and wanted to get feedback on the mathematics of it:


1. Get on a sim in your market and set up a simple fixed bracket order (ie: 8 tick gain, 4 tick stop)
2. Flip a coin for your entry - Heads/Long, Tails/Short
3. After the trade exits, wait 30 seconds, do it again
4. Take 50 trades
5. Repeat exercise a few times (in a different market if you want)

The expectancy in your results just might surprise you.

(If you want to see something really powerful, use the same approach but use 2 contracts and have one scale out at 4 ticks. When you look at your expectancy now, remember that this is with a completely random entry.)


The unstated suggestion here is that the above would be profitable long term. True or not?

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  #3 (permalink)
 
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 trendisyourfriend 
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No edge = break even on the long term if you add commission and slippage then = negative expectation.

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  #4 (permalink)
 
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 Scalpingtrader 
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Java View Post
I saw this posted somewhere and wanted to get feedback on the mathematics of it:


1. Get on a sim in your market and set up a simple fixed bracket order (ie: 8 tick gain, 4 tick stop)
2. Flip a coin for your entry - Heads/Long, Tails/Short
3. After the trade exits, wait 30 seconds, do it again
4. Take 50 trades
5. Repeat exercise a few times (in a different market if you want)

The expectancy in your results just might surprise you.

(If you want to see something really powerful, use the same approach but use 2 contracts and have one scale out at 4 ticks. When you look at your expectancy now, remember that this is with a completely random entry.)


The unstated suggestion here is that the above would be profitable long term. True or not?

Why bother asking? Just try it - & don't forget to tell us how it went

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  #5 (permalink)
 
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 DavidHP 
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There are several threads on this subject.

Here is one I started a while ago but there are many if you search for Flip or Coin etc.


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  #6 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
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Java View Post
I saw this posted somewhere and wanted to get feedback on the mathematics of it:


...

The unstated suggestion here is that the above would be profitable long term. True or not?


False.


Run as fast as you can from whomever is telling you this is a good idea.

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  #7 (permalink)
sharpshoota
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I'm pretty sure I remember that FT71 talked about this in here at somepoint:


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 Massive l 
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@Java can you post your results?

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  #9 (permalink)
 Java 
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DavidHP View Post
There are several threads on this subject.

Here is one I started a while ago but there are many if you search for Flip or Coin etc.


Great, thank you for the link. That answers the question, and specifically this post shows the data: https://nexusfi.com/bigmiketrading.com/psychology-money-management/19803-coin-toss-experiment-strategy-4.html#post321074

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Last Updated on December 29, 2014


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