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Coin Flip Exercise
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Coin Flip Exercise

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Coin Flip Exercise

I saw this posted somewhere and wanted to get feedback on the mathematics of it:


1. Get on a sim in your market and set up a simple fixed bracket order (ie: 8 tick gain, 4 tick stop)
2. Flip a coin for your entry - Heads/Long, Tails/Short
3. After the trade exits, wait 30 seconds, do it again
4. Take 50 trades
5. Repeat exercise a few times (in a different market if you want)

The expectancy in your results just might surprise you.

(If you want to see something really powerful, use the same approach but use 2 contracts and have one scale out at 4 ticks. When you look at your expectancy now, remember that this is with a completely random entry.)


The unstated suggestion here is that the above would be profitable long term. True or not?

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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No edge = break even on the long term if you add commission and slippage then = negative expectation.

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  #4 (permalink)
Daytradr
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Java View Post
I saw this posted somewhere and wanted to get feedback on the mathematics of it:


1. Get on a sim in your market and set up a simple fixed bracket order (ie: 8 tick gain, 4 tick stop)
2. Flip a coin for your entry - Heads/Long, Tails/Short
3. After the trade exits, wait 30 seconds, do it again
4. Take 50 trades
5. Repeat exercise a few times (in a different market if you want)

The expectancy in your results just might surprise you.

(If you want to see something really powerful, use the same approach but use 2 contracts and have one scale out at 4 ticks. When you look at your expectancy now, remember that this is with a completely random entry.)


The unstated suggestion here is that the above would be profitable long term. True or not?

Why bother asking? Just try it - & don't forget to tell us how it went

You can be better tomorrow than you are today.
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  #5 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Flip

There are several threads on this subject.

Here is one I started a while ago but there are many if you search for Flip or Coin etc.

https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/19803-coin-toss-experiment-strategy.html

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  #6 (permalink)
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Java View Post
I saw this posted somewhere and wanted to get feedback on the mathematics of it:


...

The unstated suggestion here is that the above would be profitable long term. True or not?


False.


Run as fast as you can from whomever is telling you this is a good idea.

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  #7 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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I'm pretty sure I remember that FT71 talked about this in here at somepoint:


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  #8 (permalink)
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@Java can you post your results?

Psychology > Strategy ≥ Money
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  #9 (permalink)
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DavidHP View Post
There are several threads on this subject.

Here is one I started a while ago but there are many if you search for Flip or Coin etc.

https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/19803-coin-toss-experiment-strategy.html

Great, thank you for the link. That answers the question, and specifically this post shows the data: bigmiketrading.com/psychology-money-management/19803-coin-toss-experiment-strategy-4.html#post321074

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