Time to go live? - futures io
futures io



Time to go live?


Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one nourozi with 3 posts (1 thanks)
    2. looks_two montanajtt with 3 posts (3 thanks)
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Quick Summary with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    1. trending_up 2,910 views
    2. thumb_up 8 thanks given
    3. group 3 followers
    1. forum 8 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Time to go live?

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
nourozi
New Zealand
 
 
Posts: 92 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 52 given, 30 received

Hi guys,

I have developed a fully automated trading system that I have been testing in Ninjatrader for the past 6 months and it is profitable.

My main question is: When do you know it is time to go live and try it out in the real world?

What are some important factors I should be considering when taking a system that is profitable in a live simulated environment to a live real money environment?

Also, a side question: Has anyone had experience of taking a system live and having the results perform better than the simulated results? I am assuming this would be a rare occurrence.

Thanks,

Erfan.

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
EasyLanguage: fetch option price using Stock ticker
EasyLanguage Programming
AutoTrendHforRad indicator in a strategy "direction …
NinjaTrader
Needing harmonic patterns indicator
TradeStation
Need help with strategy PriceActionSwingPro
NinjaTrader
NT8 connectivity by FXI API to unsupported brokers?
NinjaTrader
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
77 thanks
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
68 thanks
I finally blew up an account
57 thanks
FIO Journal Challenge - April 2021 w/Jigsaw Trading
38 thanks
The tiyfTradePlanFactory indicator
26 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
 montanajtt 
Como, Italy
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, IB
Broker: Tradestation, IB
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 183 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 297 given, 312 received


Hi Erfan,

in my opinion, it's always up to you. 6 months simulation can be enough time before going live but it depends also how the system work. Anyway going live it's a useful process that will lead eventually to discover what's good and wrong with it and give you some info on where you can improve it.
Also in terms of results, you can expect either worst or better results according to how pessimistic you have been when you backtested your system.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to montanajtt for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
nourozi
New Zealand
 
 
Posts: 92 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 52 given, 30 received

Just to clarify, I have tested it for a year in market replay and 6 months in live simulation. Also,it takes an average of 40 trades per week so I think I have a good sample size.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
 montanajtt 
Como, Italy
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, IB
Broker: Tradestation, IB
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 183 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 297 given, 312 received

I usually like to have at least a 10 years historical, but even so a system can be profitable in the last 10 years and still loose money when you put it live, because markets change. I don't have enough info on your system so I can't be very specific but only give you some general advices.

I think the answer you should ask yourself is why are you worryed to put it live?

If you are worried that you can have some technical problems that you don't see in SIM, the only way to discover is to put it live.

if you are worryed that your rules are not robust enough then you can backtest it in the most pessimistic way and see if it is still profitable. Look at your average trade if can handle some slippage or lost of signals, look your drawdown if it is compatible with your net profit, look your profit factor, do all your robustness tests, look if it is too much fitted(a pivot graph with xls may be useful), think if your rules are just a data mining result or are the result of something that can be applyed profitably to the market and backtest on at least 10 years historical.

If everything is ok and you are worryed that markets change and when you put it live it starts loosing money, well you have to live with it or do something else There is no solution for it but diversification on a large number of strategies, so if and when one start loosing money you still have others are making but it's really a long and tough process and never end.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to montanajtt for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
nourozi
New Zealand
 
 
Posts: 92 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 52 given, 30 received

One thing you mentioned is the profit factor, and that is the main thing I am concerned about. It has a profit factor of around 1.15 which is quite low.

A few more points to add:

It has taken over 1000 trades.

19 winning weeks.

6 losing weeks.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to nourozi for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Trading: GBU-39
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,172 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 10,456 given, 12,608 received

I suggest @kevinkdog's thread.

He covers quite a bit on the good, the bad, and the ugly of automated trading.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to tturner86 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
 montanajtt 
Como, Italy
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, IB
Broker: Tradestation, IB
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 183 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 297 given, 312 received


nourozi View Post
One thing you mentioned is the profit factor, and that is the main thing I am concerned about. It has a profit factor of around 1.15 which is quite low.

I think profit factor is not the only thing you should look, however I agree with you that 1.15 is pretty low, I actually would say too much low but I don't like to express strong opinions especially if based on just one input. If you post your stats I could give you a better opinion anyway the thread that @tturner86 suggested, can give you a lot of useful informations

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Trading Technologies
Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little GE, GC, SI & Bitcoin
 
Posts: 4,089 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 3,401 given, 8,096 received


tturner86 View Post
I suggest @kevinkdog's thread.

He covers quite a bit on the good, the bad, and the ugly of automated trading.

+1

Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout > Time to go live?


Last Updated on December 21, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing

The Cold Hard Truth: Maybe I Am Not Good Enough w/Chris Gray @ Earn2Trade

Elite only

HIRO Indicator by Spotgamma in Bookmap w/Brent Kochuba @ SpotGamma

Elite only

NEW BlackBird Features + FOREX Support w/Jeremy Tang @ SharkIndicators

Elite only
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts