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That really looks good. The only problem i see with the OBV is that it assumes ALL volume in an upbar is ALL buying volume which is obviously not correct. If you put it on a 1V chart then it is more accurate but unusable which brings me to multitimeframe charting which NT doesn't do yet. So, I created a simple strategy that does nothing but plot the OBV based on the 1V data. This way I can load the strategy on my 400v trading chart and now I have a more accurate representation plus it isn't nearly as jagged.
Mike
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
You have to remember than ES is based on an index, therefore buying and selling volume does not control the price (although it does contribute). The best you can hope for in using volume analysis on ES or anything based on an index is to follow what the operators (smart money) are doing.
DOM/Volume analysis is more useful on spot forex market where buying/selling volume has a more direct impact on the price (and the bid/ask spread). But even there you cannot get a complete picture because of the decentralized nature of forex and also the co-integration between different currency pairs which affect each other in much the same way that stocks on the Dow may affect stocks on the SP500 which in turn has an effect on the ES.
So basically it is an extremely complex web of interdependencies and I don't think we will ever be able to get a fully accurate picture. That is not to say that DOM analysis is useless, quite the opposite; however, I think it is misguided to base your trades solely or primarily on that information.
I think the same thing about the COT report, yes you can look at it and get a picture of where smart money expects the price to go in the future. But you have to keep in mind that they are building huge positions and they can afford for the price to go against their current positions because they know that eventually they will be ahead, whereas retail traders like you and I usually cannot afford to sit and wait (or average in) while the market comes back to our level. Even if you did have the money to hold on to a losing position until it comes back around it would usually not be a smart investment since it is precludes you from using those funds in other profitable trades.
