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Do you have more trading experience than average on BMT?
Started:December 9th, 2014 (05:36 PM) by Big Mike Views / Replies:1,847 / 23
Last Reply:December 21st, 2014 (08:36 PM) Attachments:0

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Do you have more trading experience than average on BMT?

Old December 10th, 2014, 01:18 AM   #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Futures Experience: None
Platform: TWS, NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: numerous
Favorite Futures: index and currency futures, stocks, options, warrants
kickmic's Avatar
Posts: 262 since May 2011
Thanks: 42 given, 333 received

Since becoming an elite member which is realistically when I started using the site, I am seeing fewer new posts by professional traders verses traders who are learning to trade. Trading is my livelihood hence why I selected "above average".

I'm glad you asked for the explanation Mike because I've been meaning to ask if these observations are accurate as it may just be I'm not effectively searching the site.

I'm trying to discover who the very experienced traders are (eg Tiger Trader, Josh, Fat tails) and would love to see a "follow a member" feature.

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Old December 10th, 2014, 01:48 AM   #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
Futures Experience: None
Platform: sc
Favorite Futures: es
Itchymoku's Avatar
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One thing is for sure, if you sound like you're trying to get spoonfed you'll likely get a dose of experience dropped on ya

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Old December 10th, 2014, 03:03 AM   #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
Manchester, NH
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: thinkorswim
Broker/Data: TD Ameritrade
Favorite Futures: Stocks
Posts: 838 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 579 given, 1,650 received

Big Mike View Post
After voting, please post a reply telling us why you answered the way you did (why you believe your reason).


I voted "Less experience than average".

My short reason is that this is probably the correct answer.

My longer explanation is that we can prove this: whether each forum participant is more or less experienced than me is an outcome drawn iid from some distribution f supported on the discrete interval [0,1]. The average of all possible distributions supported on [0,1] is the uniform distribution so I'm equally likely to have less experience than average as I am to have more experience than average.

There's an opposing school of thought which is to minimize -H(f), where H denotes the entropy function and which is a continuous function of n-tuples, (a1,a2,...,an) inside a compact subset of R^n. From the weighted AM-GM inequality, exp(H) = prod{i=1 to n}{(1/ai)^ai} <= summ{i=1 to n}{ai*1/ai} = n, then -H(f) is minimized if and only if equality holds, in other words, when the 1/ai are all equal, so -H(f) is minimized at (1/n,...,1/n).

The most awesome thing is that both approaches arrive at the uniform distribution (wow!) and the same conclusion. It's a good brainteaser because you can solve it with a high school statistics background.

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Old December 10th, 2014, 04:05 AM   #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
Futures Experience: None
Platform: sc
Favorite Futures: es
Itchymoku's Avatar
Posts: 2,820 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1,611 given, 3,395 received

whether or not the 5% who hold 95% of the knowledge are 95% more active than majority of users who're inactive is the real question. I would like to guess the distribution of knowledge for people who're actively participating is higher than average number of people who aren't considering the forum itself holds knowledge.

There is of course another school of thought that says most of the people who have the majority of the knowledge don't post much at all. They don't need to post because they're already adequately competent in their abilities and would rather not waste their time debating with what amounts to tiddlywinks with witty dittalywinks. But if it no longer becomes about the tiddlywinks but the wit than the dittalywinks can't have a fit about what a waste of time the little hand hits.

Last edited by Itchymoku; December 10th, 2014 at 04:12 AM.
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Old December 11th, 2014, 09:17 AM   #15 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, England
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT, TOS, MT4
Broker/Data: TOS, CQG (NT), FXCM
Favorite Futures: ES, 6E
chr1s's Avatar
Posts: 430 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 1,568 given, 625 received

Futures Edge on FIO

How much money do you need to trade futures successfully?

I've selected less experience

I don't know who an average member is, but I can assume by looking at posts (mostly in elite sections) - which indicates a committed elite member who is active. I classify myself as a beginner and I think a lot of users here:
- they've been trading for more than me
- have journals going back months if not years
- talk a lot of sense, things I have to look up to understand fully
- think of themselves as more than a beginner (whether they are it's a different pool about Dreyfus model) by selecting intermediate in their profile

A lot of users are intermediate which to me means that they:
- have found their way of trading
- are students and teachers
- are constantly profitable - to the extend that they may start thinking about going full time, breaking even is a beginner's thing to me

I see this as a function of time, practice, knowledge and results therefore my input:
- time: 11 months
- practice: before, after work and weekends
- knowledge: couple of books, forums, webinars, (formerly BMT) which opens my eyes to how much I don't know
- results: 2 blown accounts and not profitable in sim at the moment
gives me a clear result that I have to placed myself below average member (defined in the beginning).

Hope this helps

Consistency over time
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Old December 11th, 2014, 08:39 PM   #16 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
lovetotrade's Avatar
Posts: 270 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 676 given, 361 received

I voted same as average because I do feel like I fall somewhere in the middle. It's kind of a trap question since it's impossible to know for sure. Do I stay on the humble side,and hit less than, or do I feel a little more arrogant, and want to roll with the high side. I choose to stay evenly amongst the crowd lol.

I know for sure that I wouldn't feel that way before a few months ago when I joined this site. It has humbled me time and time again, and I couldn't be more thankful for it. It has added an additional level of knowledge to my 4 years of experience, that I don't know how long it would it would have taken me to figure out on my own. I feel like I have the world of trading experience at my fingertips when/if I need it, and you can't put a price on that.

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Old December 11th, 2014, 08:50 PM   #17 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
DionysusToast's Avatar
Posts: 2,335 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 718 given, 6,932 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

I voted average.

Because in years experience, I am probably in the middle. I think...

What would be interesting to know is how much of the experience is no longer being leveraged.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the "Ask Me Anything" thread
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Old December 11th, 2014, 09:21 PM   #18 (permalink)
Banned: trolling
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Gold
Cachevary's Avatar
Posts: 407 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 138 given, 77 received

I`d say an average trader without the knowledge that`s well above average tends to go in cycle.From system to system,from indicator to indicator,from forum to forum,and they consider themselves experienced by doing so.I used to be in that boat,but i`m not anymore.In my view,trading has nothing to do with experience.You either have a proper knowledge or you don`t.

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Old December 12th, 2014, 06:29 AM   #19 (permalink)
Elite Member
London/United Kingdom
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: AMP/Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Futures
slainster's Avatar
Posts: 7 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 8 given, 0 received

Big Mike View Post
After voting, please post a reply telling us why you answered the way you did (why you believe your reason).


I only started seriously looking at trading a year ago, so very much still "learning the ropes", so below average is justified from my perspective.

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Old December 15th, 2014, 08:58 AM   #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
Istanbul, Turkey
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, IRT, ToS, Ninja
Broker/Data: Stage 5
Favorite Futures: NQ
bob7123's Avatar
Posts: 542 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 97 given, 1,667 received

Great poll! I can't recall one I liked better.

Two short phrases:

Pareto Principle

Theory of Mind

*Complete with Wikipedia links at no extra charge.

Yeah I'm being a bit cryptic, but if one clicks the links and thinks on it a bit, I think you'll see what I mean.

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