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When NOT to trade
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When NOT to trade

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Toronto, CA
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: YM, ES
record100's Avatar
Posts: 105 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 34 given, 43 received

so, my understanding that you are trying to build automated strategy? what is considered as long and medium time frame when system trying to determine the state?
very impressive work

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  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT/Matlab
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: FX majors
sefstrat's Avatar
Posts: 285 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 20 given, 752 received

Yes this is part of an automated strategy, that is why I place so much importance on being able to statistically define things. I think understanding these concepts is very helpful in discretionary trading too though.

I have been running this system live for a few months now after forward testing for over a month with good results. When I first started out trying to develop an automated system I wasted alot of time trying to find the perfect trading signals, ie stop and reverse, always in the market type strategies like most new traders. I had some success with that but it was likely due to curve fitting, the strategies always eventually fell apart in forward testing. It wasn't until I started really focusing on when NOT to trade that I finally started developing some truly profitable strategies.

I currently use 4 range based timeframes, 34, 21, 13, 8 (on EURUSD)

Edit: Forgot that most of you guys trade ES rather than forex, I also trade ES/YM occasionally, on those I use a simpler strategy with only 2 timeframes, 8 and 3 range because there is much less noise and less movement compared with forex market

Last edited by sefstrat; July 12th, 2009 at 03:59 AM.
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  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT/Matlab
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: FX majors
sefstrat's Avatar
Posts: 285 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 20 given, 752 received

Since several people have asked me about it, I created a simple SNR indicator based on keltner channel. It is posted in the downloads section.

Here is a screenshot comparing it with the my proprietary SNR indicator, you can see that they are very similar.

The blue line is a moving average of the white line, when blue line is sloping up that means the market is trending. When it is low or sloping down that means there is alot of noise or noise is increasing so it is probably not a good time to trade.

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The following 6 users say Thank You to sefstrat for this post:
  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
Trading Experience: None
Platform: NinjaTrader
Posts: 7 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 1 given, 0 received

Keltner SNR indicator

I am looking for the Keltner SNR indicator by sefstrat (mentioned above).
Anybody know where I can find it?

Thanks much!

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  #15 (permalink)
Elite Member
Calgary Canada
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: IB/Kinetic
Favorite Futures: 6E, CL
jackyd's Avatar
Posts: 47 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 44 given, 18 received

Here you go, it's in the download section...

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  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
Wrocław, Poland
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Racket
Favorite Futures: Ockham's razor
gregid's Avatar
Posts: 651 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 321 given, 612 received

Vertical Horizontal Filter

You may be interested in checking the new indicator I've just submitted in the download section. It is called Vertical Horizontal Filter:


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  #17 (permalink)
Elite Member
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: 6B, 6E, CL, GC, 6A, 6C, 6J
Posts: 16 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 1 given, 5 received

I only trade morning session, 9:30 - 11:30am eastern. That's when I get the best movement for the trades I look for.

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