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How to do retrograde analysis?
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How to do retrograde analysis?

  #1 (permalink)
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How to do retrograde analysis?

Rather than jumping from one indicator, or trading strategy, to the next and trying to test them one at a time I would seem more sensible to do retrograde analysis. An example of retrograde analysis would be to find all cases when a stock gained more than 1 point in a day, excluding moves that were news (earnings) related. Then to examine that set of results to find a commonality in the chart.

You may not like my example, but it does not matter. I am not really trying to find that. It is just an example. Retrograde analysis simply looks at a result and works backward. When I work on strategy development in something like ninja it is still pretty random and disorganized. I try some set of indicators along with some sort of target and stop system. And then I test the results one at a time.

It is very inefficient. But I don't know of anyway to do the kind of analysis I would like to do. I don't really want to test a strategy. What I want is something with real database functionality that will allow me to query it for various kinds of results. So that I can then go back over those charts to find a commonality upon which I may base future trades.

Does anyone know how that might be done. Oh yes cost does matter.

Thanks

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  #3 (permalink)
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Analysis Manually


In my opinion the best way to do this is to go through your charts manually, noting all the tendencies that you notice. Yes, this method takes time, but in my opinion, well worth the time. With this time spent in the charts you will learn much more than any program, or database could show you. It's the way that I developed my strategy, and I couldn't be happier. Still my opinion.

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chesspool View Post
In my opinion the best way to do this is to go through your charts manually, noting all the tendencies that you notice. Yes, this method takes time, but in my opinion, well worth the time. With this time spent in the charts you will learn much more than any program, or database could show you. It's the way that I developed my strategy, and I couldn't be happier. Still my opinion.

I am not talking about how to analyze a stock. I am not talking about trying to have a computer do the work for me. Of course you have to look at the charts yourself. I am talking about doing statistical analysis in order to know what to look for when you are analyzing your charts. You can not do that by hand. There are 3100 NASDQ stocks and 2800 NYSE.

When you analyze some list of stocks you watch, lets say 30, you can do well and make money. But from a statistical standpoint it is almost meaningless. I hope you do well, and I am not criticizing. But it is impossible to know if a system is truly valid unless the sample size is large enough. I would much rather trade a setup that is 60% successful in a pool of 1000 stocks over 20 years than one that was 90% successful using 50 stocks over 5 years.

The database work is to find and confirm the best signals. It does not take the place of actually looking at charts and doing your own work

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I believe you are going down the wrong path. Many have gone down this path before you. I believe Manesh Patel discussed it at length in one of his futures.io (formerly BMT) webinars, or it may have been Ernest Chan.

I also suggest that you read this book:
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals: David Aronson: 9780470008744: Amazon.com: Books

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