Thanks for the link to a backtest. The rules they used did not match the document posted earlier so I read further and found that a second backtest using the original setup suggested by Cisco futures showed better results.
"120 days price opened outside of value and closed the first 30 mins within it. Of those, 75 times it hit the other end of the value area. So, 12% setup rate, 62.5% success rate. Prior VPOC is hit 107 out of 120 times, or 89% of the time." Backtest using CISCO rules
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I backtested this awhile back and did not get anywhere close too the results you showed here. I would suggest that you do your own backtesting. This will help your either internalize the result and feel comfortable with taking the trade or debunk any previous test results.
On a farther note I use market profile for my trading and one of the first things I found out there was others were using the VAH and VAL and different rules like the 80% rule to come up with manufactured trades off those levels.
I think you will find that using MP as a trading decision maker will not bode well. Using MP to gauge the bigger picture and who you are playing with will suit you might better. Looking for excess and balance and one time framing will help you might more imho.
In those two half hours price could move far enough into value that taking the trade to the other side wouldn't be worth it. Also the rule remains in effect if price leaves the value area and comes back in, so placing a stop somewhere in value would be tough as well because price could bounce out hitting your stop loss before going to the other side. Everything comes with a catch.
R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
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