Thanks for the link to a backtest. The rules they used did not match the document posted earlier so I read further and found that a second backtest using the original setup suggested by Cisco futures showed better results.
"120 days price opened outside of value and closed the first 30 mins within it. Of those, 75 times it hit the other end of the value area. So, 12% setup rate, 62.5% success rate. Prior VPOC is hit 107 out of 120 times, or 89% of the time." Backtest using CISCO rules
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I backtested this awhile back and did not get anywhere close too the results you showed here. I would suggest that you do your own backtesting. This will help your either internalize the result and feel comfortable with taking the trade or debunk any previous test results.
On a farther note I use market profile for my trading and one of the first things I found out there was others were using the VAH and VAL and different rules like the 80% rule to come up with manufactured trades off those levels.
I think you will find that using MP as a trading decision maker will not bode well. Using MP to gauge the bigger picture and who you are playing with will suit you might better. Looking for excess and balance and one time framing will help you might more imho.
In those two half hours price could move far enough into value that taking the trade to the other side wouldn't be worth it. Also the rule remains in effect if price leaves the value area and comes back in, so placing a stop somewhere in value would be tough as well because price could bounce out hitting your stop loss before going to the other side. Everything comes with a catch.
R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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I never liked the term "80% Rule" - makes it sound like it's set in stone, which it isn't.
That said, when the market is heading back to value, or is already in value, I take the VAH and VAL as price levels which have a higher probability of a decent entry position. Monday and Tuesday of this week were good examples - here's how I analyze it:
JPG of Monday's profile:
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Monday's MP levels were nice areas for potential trade setups. It doesn't mean that the first entry is going to achieve 80% - if you look at the last chart above, you can see that it took several tries before that was done.
That said, MP VAH and VAL levels are fairly reliable when they occur.
I don't agree with the two 30 minute bars - trading the value area can happen any time of the day as far as I'm concerned. I'm only looking for price to be at these levels. That's it.
This is really just value area trading - I find that the narrower the value area from the previous day, the more likely it is that if price is moving towards these levels, it's a fairly good bet that at the very least you can scalp a few points.
When the market opens way out of the VA and out of range, then it's another story entirely.
I've found market profile theory more useful than anything else I've studied, "80% Rule" included. Unfortunately, I think there's a big misunderstanding about the profile in general - the profile was never intended to give trade setups or entry points. It was intended to demonstrate structure and where "value" is at any one point in time. We can certainly use the levels to guestimate entry points, but it takes a greater understanding of what's going on in the market to know when to go and when to stand aside.
If anyone is a dedicated MP trader, we have a group on Skype that discusses the profile every day. Contact me if you are interested.
What we are NOT:
A paid trading room
A teaching room - you need to have basic understanding of MP
We do not give signals or entries
What we DO:
We analyze the profile before market open and occasionally throughout the day
Everyone is expected to participate for the benefit of all
We also discuss footprint charts and a few other technical applications. But mainly MP.
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There are several different ways you are factor this rule and test it. I used J Dalton's first book as a baseline for my testing. But what is most important is for you to create a rule set and backtest it.
Phantom Trader, I would be interested in your MP Skype room.
I have been studying Market Profile with Reza Dimaghani for about 6 months and it has turned my trading around. He posts youtube videos of MP trading levels a few times a week that are fantastic aids.
Yes I've some Market-Profile pdf's from Market-Delta (80%rule, MP general….). If you want them, pm me an email-address and I'll send them later today (because I've them on my pc at home).
