Are markets fractal? - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Are markets fractal?
Updated: Views / Replies:5,886 / 47
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:11

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 11  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Are markets fractal?

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,697 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,041 given, 4,496 received

The large problem in evaluating your chart without hard empirical tests is often our eye sees what it wants to see. This is exacerbated by the fact that markets can really only go up or go down, and they can only either trend or range trade. Hence any indicator (Pitchfork in your case) is going to look great sometimes just by the virtue of these limiting circumstances. This is the big problem with believing something about the market based on a few occurrences of anecdotal visual 'evidence'. Just change the slope of your Pitchfork by 1 degree and see the effect of it. The guy that plays at Roulette will see similar patterns because there are only two choices: Red or Black.


pfabcTrader View Post
A picture is worth a thousand words

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
  #12 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Leicester England
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, MT4
Broker/Data: MBTrading
Favorite Futures: EUR/USD
 
Posts: 35 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 2 given, 23 received

Pitchfork is a tool which needs lots of practice, just like any other tool.
There is plenty of info on the web ( Dr. Andrew, Dr. Morge ).

(Hence any indicator (Pitchfork in your case) is going to look great sometimes)

I only need 40% (Van Tharp)

(believing something about the market based on a few occurrences of anecdotal visual 'evidence'.)

Practice,Practice, Practice

(Just change the slope of your Pitchfork by 1 degree and see the effect of it.)

That is curve fitting, I always use market structure pivots ( PF-Schiff).


If there is no clear market structure do not use it and wait for the next.
This is the biggest problem waiting waiting, but in day-trading most days have one - it works for me -

Reply With Quote
 
  #13 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,667 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 776 given, 8,714 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



trendisyourfriend View Post
The large problem in evaluating your chart without hard empirical tests is often our eye sees what it wants to see.

I agree - plus one very important factor.

Charts are NOT the market.

Charts are a way to visually represent trade execution data, usually over time and usually showing open, high, low close in a period. That does not make charts the market.

So - with charts simply being a way to represent execution data over time, why would it be a surprise that charts look similar when representing different OHLC data in different timeframes?

Perhaps the method of representing data is what makes different timeframes similar and not the markets themselves.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
 
  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received

If fractal means charts have similar structure on all time frames, then yes, but with exception. Like in nateru, a snow flake is a prime example of fractal but only you zoom enough to go to molecules level and then its no fractal at all. Molecules or atoms, or quarks are not like snowflakes. Same in chart patterns, if you zoom to say tick chart or 10 second chart you will see it is very different from what you see on 15 or 60 minutes chart. You will see gaps, stall in price movement, long lines where price traded at same exact price, 1 tick wide bars and 20 tick bars going one after another. Zoom out and you see other factors that dont repeat on low time frames such as seasonality. Futures and stocks have very pronounced session character not repeated on either low nor high level but only within a session. Forex is most fractal of all, being 24h and most liquid, but again before you zoom to elemental level. There at tge tick level rules change. Its like Newtonian physics being replaced with quantum physics at subatimic level.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to xelaar for this post:
 
  #15 (permalink)
Elite Member
Memphis, Tennessee
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, EUR/USD
 
deltason's Avatar
 
Posts: 133 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 1,552 given, 118 received

@xelaar Since markets involve people, let's say one buyer and one seller agree on a price and make an exchange. Could that be considered the subatomic level for a market? If not, how about two buyers and two sellers agreeing on a price? Are the basic behavior patterns among people at the subatomic level self-similar as the number of market participants gets larger?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to deltason for this post:
 
  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received


deltason View Post
@xelaar Since markets involve people, let's say one buyer and one seller agree on a price and make an exchange. Could that be considered the subatomic level for a market? If not, how about two buyers and two sellers agreeing on a price? Are the basic behavior patterns among people at the subatomic level self-similar as the number of market participants gets larger?

Subatomic level of market consists of market making HFT (replacing specialists and market makers of earlier days), and total majority of trades are going not by "agreeing" between buyer and seller, but by hitting the bid or the offer placed by market makers. Think about not two people meeting each other via craigslist to buy/sell a car, but seller going to the used car dealership and selling at discount, and buyer going to the same dealership and buying at premium. Dealer is a market maker who collects the spread. If markets would be working by pairing real buyers and sellers it would be a dysfunctional place with really bad price discovery. It can be seen during flash crashes, when HFT remove their limits from the market, and your order close suddenly slips not 1 tick but 1000.

Subatomic level of market is governed by working of these algos, doing not only market making activity, but searching for elephants or huge buyer and seller, icebergs, other algos, predatory behaviour like stop running, etc.

Learning HFT kitchen is learning quantum mechanics of the markets. It has nothing to do with trend lines, ranges, stochastics or anything you learn from broker-sponsored education and mainstream book. If you want to trade pure technical - trade at the technical resolution, i.e. higher the better. Same thing with subatomic trading - it does not work at higher level when you want to risk 50 ticks and gain 100. It does not make any sense.

Well, I tried hard.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to xelaar for this post:
 
  #17 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago IL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Favorite Futures: TF
 
motowater's Avatar
 
Posts: 29 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 7 given, 9 received

Fractals are patterns in and of themselves.

What I mean by that is fractals are repeating patterns as you zoom out. There must be patterns in this zooming out. (all fractals I've seen aren't exactly the same as you zoom out)

Reply With Quote
 
  #18 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philadelphia
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Favorite Futures: ticker tape
 
Itchymoku's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,892 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1,681 given, 3,621 received

no

Reply With Quote
 
  #19 (permalink)
 Vendor: diversifyportfolio.com 
PTA, Gauteng
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Self built + Sierra + TWS
Favorite Futures: Stocks and Options
 
DarkPoolTrading's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,036 since May 2012
Thanks: 1,244 given, 1,304 received


Itchymoku View Post
no

Insightful. Do you plan on elaborating?

Im quite surprised to see the differing views on this topic. I always thought the dominant opinion was that markets are fractal, and the longer I trade, the more I believe it. But this is what makes a market,...differing opinions. Without them, their would be no markets. Nice discussion.

In my opinion, markets at their core are no different now than how they were 100 years ago. Yes technology has progressed beyond anything imaginable when markets first began. But their reason for being remains unchanged. Buyers and sellers coming together with differing opinions of both current and future value, and meeting in the middle so that a transaction can take place.

Whether you're an HFT, long term investor, day trader, whatever,...you're all coming to the market because it is an auction place that facilitates trade. It is those differing time lines of market participants that ultimately causes the markets to be fractal. Repeating patterns of behavior reflected in the way markets operate across time.

Zoom in, it's an auction. Zoom out, it's an auction. Irrelevant of how the data is visually represented. Charts are just one representation of how the past auction took place. What underlies that data, the repeating human behavior across timeframes from the scalper to longer term investor is what causes fractal behavior.

For those that feel that the markets are not fractal, I would be interested in hearing why. There have been several posts saying that they are not. But why not? Saying something is not true requires more than simply saying so. I have posted my reason for believing markets are fractal,....what are yours for believing they are not.

Maybe as with just about everything in trading, their is no one single right answer.

Again,...nice discussion.

Diversification is the only free lunch
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to DarkPoolTrading for this post:
 
  #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received



DarkPoolTrading View Post
Insightful. Do you plan on elaborating?

Im quite surprised to see the differing views on this topic. I always thought the dominant opinion was that markets are fractal, and the longer I trade, the more I believe it. But this is what makes a market,...differing opinions. Without them, their would be no markets. Nice discussion.

In my opinion, markets at their core are no different now than how they were 100 years ago. Yes technology has progressed beyond anything imaginable when markets first began. But their reason for being remains unchanged. Buyers and sellers coming together with differing opinions of both current and future value, and meeting in the middle so that a transaction can take place.

Whether you're an HFT, long term investor, day trader, whatever,...you're all coming to the market because it is an auction place that facilitates trade. It is those differing time lines of market participants that ultimately causes the markets to be fractal. Repeating patterns of behavior reflected in the way markets operate across time.

Zoom in, it's an auction. Zoom out, it's an auction. Irrelevant of how the data is visually represented. Charts are just one representation of how the past auction took place. What underlies that data, the repeating human behavior across timeframes from the scalper to longer term investor is what causes fractal behavior.

For those that feel that the markets are not fractal, I would be interested in hearing why. There have been several posts saying that they are not. But why not? Saying something is not true requires more than simply saying so. I have posted my reason for believing markets are fractal,....what are yours for believing they are not.

Maybe as with just about everything in trading, their is no one single right answer.

Again,...nice discussion.

Check my previous 2 posts here.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to xelaar for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Are markets fractal?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Fractal Dimensions: Differentiating between trending and range bound markets Jura The Elite Circle 19 February 28th, 2017 01:30 AM
Polarized Fractal Efficiency Indicator zentrade Commodities Futures Trading 46 January 20th, 2014 01:30 PM
fractal Luky NinjaTrader 18 August 27th, 2013 03:42 AM
fractal pivots (tradestation) for ninja trader esam_jir NinjaTrader Programming 11 March 2nd, 2012 10:44 AM
Printing values from Fractal Indicator eurostoxx NinjaTrader Programming 1 December 14th, 2009 08:22 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:40 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-11 in 0.16 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.226.132.197