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The End of Day Trading
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The End of Day Trading

  #41 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Bermudan Option View Post
To carry on the small business/trading analogy, a lot of people who fail at a start up company play the blame game as well: Outsourced jobs is to blame. No it is workers demanding higher wages. No it is Obamacare. No it is big corporations like Walmart... basically these are the equivalent of blaming HFTs and algos.

Statisticbrain did research on the reason why companies fail. Not surprisingly, the reasons that companies fail are in the same vein as to why traders fail:

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1% of people fail from disasters/plain old bad luck. The remaining 99% however...

Source: Startup Business Failure Rate By Industry | Statistic Brain

Your first table seems faulty, the count of major causes jumps from 3 to 5 and the precentages sum up to just 88 percent. Something is missing there. The next table of the leading management mistakes contains items as ambiguous as "being in the wrong place at the wrong time" at the top. I don't think a sensible conclusion on how many people fail from bad luck can be reached from the data you provided.

I'll offer something more specific instead. The research firm IBISWorld identified 10 U.S. industries that have experienced severe declines over the past decade, based on percentage decrease in revenue from 2000 to 2010.

http://www.ibisworld.com/Common/MediaCenter/Dying Industries.pdf

It's very clear in hindsight why the revenue of photofinishing went down by 69.1 percent, and revenue of record stores by 76.3 percent. It wasn't as clear when someone started a business in 2000 and those who got into the worst industries at that time were rather unlucky than incompetent.

While there was always some amount of competition present in the field, the total number of record store establishments dropped from 12,903 in 2000 to just 2,916 in 2010. That's about ten thousand stores less overall, not because all of those were run badly but rather because the industry was dying.

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  #42 (permalink)
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KosherTrader View Post
Under capitalization is unlikely considering the leverage large firms use.

If a day trading firm failed because of poor management chances are it would be related to the day trading business, such as in ineffective screening and educational training for hiring potential traders. It is very difficult to gauge performance of how good any potential day trader will be prior to hiring them. This is an extremely difficult business where any negative personality or cognitive impairment can lead to catastrophic losses in a very brief period of time.

Generally, the appeal of daytrading is more in the challenge and adrenaline rush more than the potential for a long lasting career.

Hey KosherTrader, I have an interesting business proposition for you that you could make a boat load of money from. You can make a website where you prove daytrading is a sham, possibly even a forum. You could speak at colleges and such with your evidence telling people you can save them thousands of dollars by just giving it up and not pursuing trading. I mean if what you say is true and 999 out of 1000 traders fail then why not? I'm sure if you knew how to market this concept well it'll make more then you could ever possibly make trading. I'm not sure how other traders would feel about this, but hey if you can't beat em then make a website about em. Right? If you can't find a weakness in the market you can exploit, why don't you just make money off of exploiting the market in a whole by warning other traders about it?


Last edited by Itchymoku; October 13th, 2013 at 11:07 PM.
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  #43 (permalink)
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Itchymoku View Post
Hey KosherTrader, I have an interesting business proposition for you that you could make a boat load of money from. You can make a website where you prove daytrading is a sham, possibly even a forum. You could speak at colleges and such with your evidence telling people you can save them thousands of dollars by just giving it up and not pursuing trading. I mean if what you say is true and 999 out of 1000 traders fail then why not? I'm sure if you knew how to market this concept well it'll make more then you could ever possibly make trading. I'm not sure how other traders would feel about this, but hey if you can't beat em then make a website about em. Right? If you can't find a weakness in the market you can exploit, why don't you just make money off of exploiting the market in a whole by warning other traders about it?

You seemed to have missed the main point of the discussion. Even if an edge is attainable it is ephemeral for almost all day traders except those who are extremely gifted in this field, due to the dearth of statistical and even anecdotal evidence supporting day trading as a sustainable career.

Your resorting to sarcasm reinforces the strength of my argument.

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  #44 (permalink)
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KosherTrader View Post
You seemed to have missed the main point of the discussion. Even if an edge is attainable it is ephemeral for almost all day traders except those who are extremely gifted in this field, due to the dearth of statistical and even anecdotal evidence supporting day trading as a sustainable career.

Your resorting to sarcasm reinforces the strength of my argument.

Alright, listen I'm sorry for the sarcasm. I'm not the smartest person, I actually had to look up dearth. I get it, It's hard to day trade and almost impossible for many to do it for over a decade if they aren't gifted. We are all here to help each other despite the sarcasm. I'm very interested in seeing how you trade and how you evolve to overcome your shortcomings. I wish you'd open up a journal so we can take this seriously and hopefully you'll be able to be consistent for life with the help of other traders on bmt. The odds of trying to do this by yourself is probably worse than doing it alone even though I don't have any statistics on it. So here is my sincere apology and I wish to see this discussion take a different course, one more positive and full of growth. lets beat the odds

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  #45 (permalink)
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KosherTrader
Even if an edge is attainable it is ephemeral for almost all day traders except those who are extremely gifted in this field, due to the dearth of statistical and even anecdotal evidence supporting day trading as a sustainable career.

What is your next move? No more trading?

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3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
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  #46 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
What is your next move? No more trading?

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

I'm going to watch Al Brooks' realtime coverage of the markets for the rest of the month, do some paper day trades. A trading journal is a good idea, once I get his system down I'll start one. Al Brooks says "Those who speak don't know and those who know don't speak" about traders and why there is such little information out there. I doubt that, since most traders need to frequently sharpen their edge to keep up with the markets, there should be more veteran day traders on trading forums sharing and seeking knowledge.

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  #47 (permalink)
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KosherTrader View Post
I'm going to watch Al Brooks' realtime coverage of the markets for the rest of the month, do some paper day trades. A trading journal is a good idea, once I get his system down I'll start one. Al Brooks says "Those who speak don't know and those who know don't speak" about traders and why there is such little information out there. I doubt that, since most traders need to frequently sharpen their edge to keep up with the markets, there should be more veteran day traders on trading forums sharing and seeking knowledge.

That's a great plan. I look forward to reading your journal. Just to be sure, those are not Al's words. The Yellow Emperor that reigned in China around 4,600 years ago said "Those who know do not speak; those who speak do not know" with reference to sages (wise men) at the time. The Yellow Emperor would never have imagined that his words would be used by a day-trader!

I have bought all of Al's books and listened to many of his webinars. He has some great stuff. So, in which category do you think the Yellow Emperor would add Al Brooks: 1) those who know do not speak, OR 2) those who speak do not know?

Joe

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  #48 (permalink)
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KosherTrader View Post
there should be more veteran day traders on trading forums sharing and seeking knowledge.

There are.... They just don't spend much time in nonsense threads like this one where a rookie is telling them "facts" about a market.

I have been put off by your posts. It seems to me you are looking for trouble and on top of that have no respect for this community.

Some final advice - you know nothing. And by assuming you know much, you are making it harder on yourself. And by following someone else, you again make it even harder.

If you really are trying to be a good trader, you are making a lot of big mistakes and the worst thing is you don't even know it. A journal is always a good idea, I encourage it and hope you will follow through with it. I also hope you'll pay attention to the rest of my advice in my signature.

Good luck.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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  #49 (permalink)
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on a side note - Al brooks says that he doesn't mind high frequency traders, he actually likes the fact that they provide liquidity. He doesn't think that they interfere much with the type of trading he does. That's his own words from his webinar


Last edited by Itchymoku; October 14th, 2013 at 02:05 AM.
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  #50 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
There are.... They just don't spend much time in nonsense threads like this one where a rookie is telling them "facts" about a market.

I have been put off by your posts. It seems to me you are looking for trouble and on top of that have no respect for this community.

Some final advice - you know nothing.

I wouldn't mind such a post if at the same time you weren't saying how futures.io (formerly BMT) is fundamentally different by keeping things positive and not tolerating rude behavior.

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