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Is Trend Really Your Friend?
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Is Trend Really Your Friend?

  #41 (permalink)
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aligator View Post
Good asking. Really, no need to say that is a frequently used stat for trend vs range, whoever measures it after the fact, and I am sure you have seen that before. But it has nothing to do with determining when or where these things start or end. They can not be measured before they happen, and that is really the point.

I think it's a hugely inaccurate stat, but for fun lets keep digging, what product do you think is range bound more more frequently than trending?

"If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong."
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  #42 (permalink)
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aligator View Post
Good asking. Really, no need to say that is a frequently used stat for trend vs range, whoever measures it after the fact, and I am sure you have seen that before. But it has nothing to do with determining when or where these things start or end. They can not be measured before they happen, and that is really the point.

Can we not say the samething about a range? When does a range start or end?

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  #43 (permalink)
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I don't have my own statistics or proofs that the markets are trending 20-30% of the time but I'm of the camp
that in a general day-trading short time frame, I think it could likely be the case. Just my own thoughts and rough observations:

- I'd tried to learn about Elliot wave. I'd noticed most of the time a full 5-wave pattern rarely forms at all. At best an A-B-C.
- In the MT4 forEx world, most all of the myriad vendor EA's fail as most of them try to catch a trend and end up getting whipsawed. Same with zulutrade and myfxbook. A "#1" signal provider doesn't stay up long.
- Al Brooks likes to say a trading range-trend day is often the norm now. i.e. a "double-distribution trend day" going by MP.
- I tried my own NT strategy stint. Like everyone else my strategies could get good figures on backtest but on forward testing, often losing the trend gains to whipsaw and retracements and interim flags.
- maybe electronic trading progressively year by year has finally made the market more "zero-sum" at least
on a day trading short term scale. The big movers and manipulation will still make the overall Fed-fueled "rallies that everyone hates", but on the short term it's harder to ride out the overall moves with so much consoliation
flags and fakeouts in the way. Maybe going by MP, there is less overruns of balance points (i.e. less trend) and more efficiency. The algos have certainly learned to take advantage of the consolidation ranges as opposed to daytrading like in the 80's and earlier when only the locals could get filled fast and everyone else used their dialer or wired touch tone phones to call a broker.

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  #44 (permalink)
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Tunah View Post
@aligator

up .9% surfing the trend... again for day trading you could be out, I'm letting it ride.


Edit: +.99%

@Tunah,

No patience for or day trading stocks for me. I manage my equity portfolios once a week for 30 minutes or less and doing quite well.

But for day trading, I don't mess up with trends other than the big picture and drawing a channel here and there for spotting a reversal, and mostly trade based on levels, patterns, divergences, and price action. Four CL trades today for +168 ticks, trading leisurely. If you have not read my thread posting live trades, here is a pick for today.

https://futures.io/elite-circle/20413-gradient-color-bars-170.html#post348776

All said, I have nothing against trend trading, I just find more opportunities in range trading. More power to trend lovers.

Cheers!

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  #45 (permalink)
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aligator View Post
...I don't mess up with trends other than the big picture and drawing a channel here and there for spotting a reversal, and mostly trade based on levels, patterns, divergences, and price action. Four CL trades today for +168 ticks, trading leisurely...

I am no more sure why you started this thread given this conclusion. It looks as if you were saying... look how powerful is my take on all this given my results today.

There are basically two states: in balance or out of balance. When prices are out of balance (trending) then the usual pullback setup works well. When prices are in a state of balance then fading the extremes of the balance area is the normal play. There is nothing new here. Not sure what you are looking for!!!

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  #46 (permalink)
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Yeah man...

I was wondering the same thing. I think the thread is meant as a journal based on the posts of the TS. The logic or thought progression is tough for me to follow, but let that be on me. Guys should reasonably communicate and express themselves. Trade well everyone.

Dan

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  #47 (permalink)
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I do not know...

@Tunah

I don't care about trend or cycle or range as a constant or an overlay through which I'm viewing the market. I just trade what is there.

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  #48 (permalink)
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addchild View Post
I think it's a hugely inaccurate stat, but for fun lets keep digging, what product do you think is range bound more more frequently than trending?

Possibly, though widely accepted. As for trending or ranging instruments, your sources are as good as mine.


trendisyourfriend View Post
Can we not say the samething about a range? When does a range start or end?

Of course you can. I already said we can't tell the beginning or end of these things.

However, according to John J. Murphy: An uptrend is a series of fairly obvious successive higher highs and higher troughs; a down trend is the opposite. Horizontal (non-successive) peaks or troughs identify a sideways or Trading Range.

Most already know or have heard this definition whether they have studied legends or not. So, look at your trading time frame and you decide what is it that you see more of, trend or range, make your statistics and then trade as you wish.

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  #49 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I am no more sure why you started this thread given this conclusion. It looks as if you were saying... look how powerful is my take on all this given my results today.

@trendisyourfriend,

That was not the intention at all, to be sure. I was simply responding directly to @Tunah for 5-pages of charts and other stuff posted by him. It seems for sure you have already formed your "trendisyourfriend" bias anyways. Reminds me of @wldman's hammer

Thank you all for valuable information. I think I have my answer.

Cheers!

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  #50 (permalink)
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aligator View Post
Not if the markets are trending only 20-30 percent of the time. For day trading, one might do heck of lot better for his time and effort to learn trading non-trending periods of markets at 70-80 percent of the time.

Thinking of most day traders frequently getting whipsawed in trending markets, the trend could be their worst enemy. But of course, that is not what the non-trading gurus would pontificate.

Great post... It appears you already have the answer to this one from your post.

I thought this would have gotten a smiley by now and been considered answered.

Still working and paying my tuition to the market learning this day trading skill.
Like the commercial on TV I want both: profit from trend and from 70-80 percent non trend(chop).
Maybe that is what people mean when referring to trading AROUND a core short or long position.

Have a super day.

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