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Astrology - Cycles in trading based on planets
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Astrology - Cycles in trading based on planets

  #51 (permalink)
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tradermark View Post
Thanks,Richard.Not all studies proceed from bias,I know that.I really can't tell you why the observed experiences of folks I've known don't square with the many different studies showing no effect from the full moon.I did have one long-time ER nurse tell me that it wasn't so much the sheer numbers on Full Moons,it's that they are a lot more interesting,more bizarre,etc.

Its because this myth is so well known, i'm sure everyone knows when its a full moon if you work in a hospital. So you get a selection bias when the guy comes in with his arm chopped off, "ohh must be the full moon"..while on any other day no one would care what phase the moon is in. I'm sure no one says "ohh its a slow night tonight, must be the new moon".
Not to mention it makes no sense that there would be a binary effect as far as the moon goes..+/- 1 day from a full moon should be more bizarre than +/- one week...
The reason no one observes this is because its not really happening to start with.

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  #52 (permalink)
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tradermark View Post
Thanks,Richard.Not all studies proceed from bias,I know that.I really can't tell you why the observed experiences of folks I've known don't square with the many different studies showing no effect from the full moon.

It's called confirmation bias

After Wikipedia (Confirmation bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia):

Confirmation bias (or myside bias) is a tendency for people to prefer information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses, independently of whether they are true. People can reinforce their existing attitudes by selectively collecting new evidence, by interpreting evidence in a biased way or by selectively recalling information from memory.Some psychologists use "confirmation bias" for any of these three cognitive biases, while others restrict the term to selective collection of evidence, using assimilation bias for biased interpretation.

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  #53 (permalink)
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Richard View Post
T

The brain isn't what it's cracked up to be. It's a subjective mire full of biases that drag it away from reality instead of toward it.

And you have some way of discovering 'reality' apart from any mental constructions? I know some people say god speaks to them....

Apart from that, the brain and nervous system have actually proved extremely good at discovering useful patterns in the world, otherwise we would not be here now.

This is not to argue in favor of lunar cycles, etc.

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Thanks to all members who left info and arguments regarding the full moon's effect/noneffect on humanity.It is all pretty interesting.I think I have bored and distracted the members long enough with luna-cy and should get back to my original post-that is,have any members tried the dozens of astro-based advisors,trading systems,Gann's "rediscovered lost secrets"etc.What have your experiences been?This is a smart crowd,obviously,and I find it's pretty hard to separate fact from fiction in this area.The ancient mathematical principles have value.All the stuff jerry-built on top of them and extrapolated from them by the swarms of Gann system carnival barkers seem pretty far fetched.Thanks,Mark.

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  #55 (permalink)
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If you believe things happen for a reason,
then don't freak out when things do happen, for a reason - Dr. L S

void of course moon today, mar 18th - begins 7h23est ends 12h29est

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  #56 (permalink)
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futuretrader View Post
And you have some way of discovering 'reality' apart from any mental constructions? I know some people say god speaks to them....

I'm not sure what people that say god speaks to them has to do with anything. I know some people say hotdogs are good with relish. Is that relevant, too?

The brain is an over-generalizing pain avoider first, and a pleasure-seeker second. This is great if your criteria for success are: you eat, have sex, and don't get killed. And I can't deny that sounds like a pretty good day. But this is not optimal at all if you want to have a statistically correct view of your environment.

See the long list of cognitive biases for several examples of suboptimal human tendencies: List of cognitive biases - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The "reality" the brain constructs for you often shatters in the face of simple measurement.



futuretrader View Post
Apart from that, the brain and nervous system have actually proved extremely good at discovering useful patterns in the world, otherwise we would not be here now.

Again, if your standard of success is procreation before death, then yeah we've done pretty well for ourselves. Still, for example: when we are embarrassed at work, our body pumps out adrenaline and cortisol as if we are facing a life-threatening attack. oops... Nothing wrong with admitting that the brain is wired to make mistakes. Anyone who plays in the markets has experienced that many times, whether they know it or not.

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  #57 (permalink)
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Richard View Post
Nothing wrong with admitting that the brain is wired to make mistakes. Anyone who plays in the markets has experienced that many times, whether they know it or not.

Richard, I don't disagree at all that the brain can produce maladapted responses, and that these can have dangerous consequences, in or out of the markets. But, while our ability to see patterns, for example, may be a liability in some circumstances, it still proves fundamental in others.

My other point was simply that we have no way of determining a 'reality' apart from our own perceptions and mental constructions. I'm very happy to have 'statistically correct' descriptions, but they are also creations of our brains. And they can also be wrong.

Re: procreation, I suspect many people still view that as more important than producing correct descriptions....

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  #58 (permalink)
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futuretrader View Post
My other point was simply that we have no way of determining a 'reality' apart from our own perceptions and mental constructions. I'm very happy to have 'statistically correct' descriptions, but they are also creations of our brains. And they can also be wrong.

We perceive things through our perceptions, in our minds. Yep. But while any mental construction could turn out to be false, they aren't all equally likely to turn out to be false. A rational person would always go with the statistical measure over the guesstimate, and a guesstimate over a daydream, and a daydream over a fabrication. It's irrelevant that those are all mental constructions, because everything is a mental construct (as you pointed out).

So, I'm afraid I don't see your point. In the conversation we were having in the thread, I was explaining that you can't just take the leaps your brain makes as fact. We know how unreliable our judgement is, and especially if you are investing money you owe it to yourself to collect data and back it up rationally. It was at that point of the conversation that you jumped in with statements about people that hear god. I just don't get it.

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Fair enough; it's not worth pursuing.

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"What's that bright star next to the moon?"

or better yet - is there an astrological trade when mars and moon travel along the ecliptic?

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