Thanks Big Mike.I appreciate your taking time to point me in the right direction.There is a lot of fascinating information on this site.I bet you have saved a lot of guys a lot of time and money by creating this site.Some of the lessons I have learned so far are-a lot of really smart people struggle to be even a little successful at this.You can have a decent system and if you can't get your emotions under control,you still will lose money.There are actually very few things that work well enough to trade.A million guys have spent trillions of hours creating every possible permutation of indicator,and they don't consistently work.Thanks again,Mark.
Your friends disagree with tons of studies you can find via the national institutes of health. Here's a nice collection of them: Neuroscience for Kids - The Full Moon. The majority of studies find no correlation between lunar phases and car accidents, suicides, ER trauma patients, etc. etc. And the ones that do identify a relationship often find that the New moon is the crazier one and the Full moon is the calmer one.
Yes it could, because those oscillators at least have a clear and demonstrable relationship to price, predictive or not. So right out of the gate they deserve less skepticism, if you are approaching trading from a scientific stance.
I'm inclined to believe my sober,serious and pretty intelligent friends who have many years in the ER and law enforcement,and are convinced there is an observable effect.NIMH studies concluded it would be a great idea to release millions of mentally ill and vulnerable people from institutions so they could be "reintegrated into the community"the actual result was,they were dumped to fend for themselves on the streets-observable to us all in any American city.NIMH also chooses to fund studies of unhappy people as opposed to studies of happy people by a ratio of 100 to 1,resulting in,as near as I can tell, the slowest advancement of all the major health sciences since the time of Aristotle.
The problem is, is the mountain of statistical evidence doesn't care what you are inclined to believe. In this forum, all that happens is we disagree. No big deal. If you take that attitude into the market, though, it will leave you broke. In the markets, you've gotta forget what you want to believe, and go with reality, because reality wins every time.
I'm not even saying your friends are wrong about what they've seen. It could very well be that your friends happen to work in places where events happen to coincide with moon phases. In the same way, I can toss a coin and get heads five times in a row. That doesn't mean I have a magic coin, though. You see? It's only by looking at a lot of numerical data that the picture becomes clear... not by focusing on isolated anecdotes.
A few things to note here:
Not all studies are good. We agree on that. That's why I gave you a convenient list of lots of them spanning decades, countries, and disciplines. I thought that would help you understand the sheer magnitude of doubt you should be bringing to the table.
The studies are merely linked from the NIH library... they are not all NIH-funded or NIH-run studies.
The NIMH you keep harping on is only one subsection of the NIH, and I have no idea why you've singled them out, or what the incidents you mention have to do with lunar statistics.
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Richard,I do thank you for attempting to save me from losing the farm betting on moon cycles.There are a lot of vendors selling astro trading services,and in my original post I asked if any members have tried this type of trading and what their actual experiences have been.This site seems like it is populated by some pretty bright people,so I thought if anyone had a definitive answer,it would be this group.As regards NIMH,I don't think they are better or worse than other huge Gov't. agencies.I do think though,that the studies they choose to do and how these studies are conducted sometimes reflect a directive to FIND certain results.I think we have seen that,possibly,in the intelligence services leading up to the Iraq war.At NIMH,they wanted to close the institutions,so they ran studies that created data showing this would work.In 2007,when the Dow was hitting new highs,it was anecdotal evidence from friends about how bad business was in their respective industries that led me to do some pretty timely profit taking.This was before the magnitude of the underlying weakness was revealed in any official gov't studies.I concede it isn't scientific,and definitely would not make you money trading futures contracts.Thank you again though,for making me aware of the pitfalls of considering this type of trading.
I am considering and investigating integrating astro into my trading. It's sure scandalous for sure.
For my month of study of Gann, and astro in general, a lot of what Gann did was based on geometry. Nothing vodoo about that. Even Andrews Pitchfork, which I have validated for myself, is based on geometry. A friend of mine, when asked about Gann, told me a couple of years back that he used Gann in successfully on a regular basis. I wasn't open to that idea at the time so I shelved it until now because I wanted to broaden my knowledge on cycles.
You can try some of the more advanced stuff on market geometry for yourself for free. Download Ensign on the 1 week trial. They have Pyrapoint, Gann based, Pesevento patterns, Alan square an esoteric smorgasbord.
Having used Murrey Math over the last month, it works good.
Some believe JP Morgan consulted on a regular basis with an astrologer.
Lastly, when you start looking at astro there are so many. A lot of educators will give you some sort of trial. There are free yahoo groups where ppl make predictions.
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Thank you dandxg.This is exactly the kind of info I was looking for.Gann is a mysterious person.I have read that in his time he was revered for his amazing predictions,and that he was secretive about basing them in part on astrology.I also have read some Gann debunking,where an author interviewed Gann family members and reported that he left no significant fortune,and appeared to have never made the amounts of money people claimed he did.Neither did he save his account statements or records of his regular predictions,which seems counter to human nature.I was not sure who to believe-the Gann proponents or the debunkers,so this feedback from members is going to decide how much effort I put into this.Having invested a lot of time and effort over the last 26 years studying price,and having found a few things that work,I'd really like some indications from other researchers about how well astro trading works.Thank you again for the info.
Were you just looking for people that had good things to say about astro trading? If so then I understand that comment. Otherwise, a lot of people in the thread have mentioned things about astro trading that were informative. I mentioned that square of nine, for instance, was something that Gio used, and is also part of Gann's methodology.
The point I think is that many of these astro traders are trading with S/R and pattern recognition but like to call it something else to package it up with a pretty little bow.
Trading with Gann's ideas seems a bit different than trading with the planets. Just my two cents, but if you are researching with a preconceived bias then everything that you find out counter to what you want to hear won't be useful to you.
Last edited by Dragon; March 10th, 2010 at 10:26 AM.
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