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Account been approved! Going to have my first day of tradingthis week LA


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Account been approved! Going to have my first day of tradingthis week LA

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  #1 (permalink)
Toronto
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra
Broker: MB
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 313 since Jun 2013

So I received an email last night from Ironbeam saying that my account has been approved, and all I have to do is download the platform.

I feel like a 14year old driving a car for the first time, terrified yet excited at the same time.

I don’t know if I am actually going to trade tommorrow or just watch how the prices move ( I have been paper trading the ES for 5 weeks now- and trading stocks for 5 years)
    
TENTATIVE PLAN FOR FIRST WEEK



  • I think for the first week I will only make 2 trades a day with tight stops.
  • Thinking of just scalping on the 1min chart (usng the 10min as a guide) for small 1point trades.
  • Definitely be flat by 16h00 (Eastern)
  • Definitely 1 contract until I get half a clue





PLease don’t bother posting “ you have no experience, can’t trade with a small account, you going to die etc” I get the message, I already made my decision, and hopped out the Huey chopper and on enemy territory ready to do battle - there is no turning back now.- I made my decision.

This thread is for providing useful advice for someone trading index futures LIVE for the very first time- and that means not just how to trade but also admin (ie. Close all orders at end of day etc, make sure your internet connection is good etc.)

So what advice yall have?

I thought I would post this in the Index Futures forums, since it relates to the ES→ I hope Big Mike doesnt find a reason to move it.

So sometime this week will be my very first day of my trading career, “one small step for man...one giant leap....”

Thanks and have a nice day everyone

BF

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  #3 (permalink)
Chicago, IL
 
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Didn't you just make a thread like this not long ago? As far as advice it is all over this forum you just have to look for it.

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  #4 (permalink)
NY + NY/USA
 
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budfox View Post
So I received an email last night from Ironbeam saying that my account has been approved, and all I have to do is download the platform.

I feel like a 14year old driving a car for the first time, terrified yet excited at the same time.

I don’t know if I am actually going to trade tommorrow or just watch how the prices move ( I have been paper trading the ES for 5 weeks now- and trading stocks for 5 years)
    
TENTATIVE PLAN FOR FIRST WEEK



  • I think for the first week I will only make 2 trades a day with tight stops.
  • I think for the first week I will only make 2 trades a day with tight stops.
  • Thinking of just scalping on the 1min chart (usng the 10min as a guide) for small 1point trades.
  • Definitely be flat by 16h00 (Eastern)






PLease don’t bother posting “ you have no experience, can’t trade with a small account, you going to die etc” I get the message, I already made my decision, and hopped out the Huey chopper and on enemy territory ready to do battle - there is no turning back now.- I made my decision.

This thread is for providing useful advice for someone trading index futures LIVE for the very first time- and that means not just how to trade but also admin (ie. Close all orders at end of day etc, make sure your internet connection is good etc.)

So what advice yall have?

I thought I would post this in the Index Futures forums, since it relates to the ES→ I hope Big Mike doesnt find a reason to move it.

So sometime this week will be my very first day of my trading career, “one small step for man...one giant leap....”

Thanks and have a nice day everyone

BF

... rock and roll man.

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  #5 (permalink)
 
 
Posts: 2,979 since Jul 2012
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budfox View Post
providing useful advice for someone trading index futures LIVE for the very first time


Good Luck!


1. Trade small. 1 contract max until you are consistently profitable.

2. Trade only when the chart says you have a confirmed and profitable edge.

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  #6 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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budfox View Post
So what advice yall have?

1) Have a reason for every trade you take
2) Predefine the risk for every trade
3) Know what's going on in the world and pay attention to important news (such as all that's going on tomorrow in the senate)
4) Enjoy the process regardless of outcome!
5) Use your money to learn as much as possible. You will lose it all without question, but it will be worth the monetary loss if you don't blow yourself up in a few trades, but rather stretch that money out so that you can learn a lot while losing.

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  #7 (permalink)
Naperville IL
 
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Ok, just one remind. Be careful of ironbeam, if you come to Chicago to visit its office, you will know

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  #8 (permalink)
Tokyo, Japan
 
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What is a tight stop for you on the ES? Having tight stops is not necessarily a good thing, you'll be taken out by any small price change in the wrong direction, and your trades won't be able to develop.

Unless of course, that's been working for you on SIM and you plan on applying the same strategy.

Good luck to you.

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  #9 (permalink)
milwaukee,wi, usa
 
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1. Decide now if you will add money if/when u get a margin call

Also don't be afraid to hit the thanks button or join the forum as I'm aware of your other thread and you've gotten priceless advice from other members trying to save you $$$$

Regardless, good luck. Sometimes jumping in the fire is the best way to learn.

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  #10 (permalink)
Pompano Beach, Florida, USA
 
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lrfsdad View Post
1. Decide now if you will add money if/when u get a margin call

Also don't be afraid to hit the thanks button or join the forum as I'm aware of your other thread and you've gotten priceless advice from other members trying to save you $$$$

Regardless, good luck. Sometimes jumping in the fire is the best way to learn.

I am sure it will be "Interesting". I've pulled up my seat and I'm ready for the show to begin.

Wishing you success budfox.

Cheers!

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  #11 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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1) ES is "back and fill". Watch the motion that it moves in and try to set you entry for the outside edge. But, at the same time, don't try to be first in overall direction.

2) See if your stop can hold all day.

3) 1 contract only until you double your account.

4) If you post "I blew up" later, I am getting out my stick.

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  #12 (permalink)
Toronto
 
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mongoose View Post
Didn't you just make a thread like this not long ago? As far as advice it is all over this forum you just have to look for it.

I posted a thread asking whether a broker would allow me to open an account with 2000.

This thread is totally different....its about first-time trader , trading the ES (Index Fture) ....how should they trade the very first week......

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  #13 (permalink)
Toronto
 
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GaryD View Post
1) ES is "back and fill". Watch the motion that it moves in and try to set you entry for the outside edge. But, at the same time, don't try to be first in overall direction.

What you mean by outside edge?


so if I think it will hit 1680.75.......I should set my order to 80.50 to make sure I get filled?


I think I will use only market orders>>> no limits.


Oh definitely no more than 1 contract....at least until I double my account (God Willing)

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  #14 (permalink)
Toronto
 
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supermht View Post
Ok, just one remind. Be careful of ironbeam, if you come to Chicago to visit its office, you will know

Why?

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  #15 (permalink)
Toronto
 
Experience: Beginner
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kiont View Post
What is a tight stop for you on the ES? Having tight stops is not necessarily a good thing, you'll be taken out by any small price change in the wrong direction, and your trades won't be able to develop.

Unless of course, that's been working for you on SIM and you plan on applying the same strategy.

Good luck to you.

No more than a 1 point stop (so I am risking $50)... and remember im only taking two trades a day. (for the first week)


IF you take a position, you have done your research and see evidence to go long (or short ) , you see price bouncing off a pivot...

or three legged kicker , so I will place the stop at the bottom of the green candle when price moves up .

and if I want to be really conservative..... I could place my stop right at the price that I bought it for (if I see lots of momentum moving price upwards).....that way if I get stopped out I wont even lose anything (just pay the commissoin)

then of course as prices moves towards my target, I could raise the stop up a bit...that way guaranteeing a profit.

thats the "plan"

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  #16 (permalink)
Toronto
 
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lrfsdad View Post
1. Decide now if you will add money if/when u get a margin call

Also don't be afraid to hit the thanks button or join the forum as I'm aware of your other thread and you've gotten priceless advice from other members trying to save you $$$$

Regardless, good luck. Sometimes jumping in the fire is the best way to learn.

Any practical advice?

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  #17 (permalink)
desert CA
 
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Quoting 
1. Decide now if you will add money if/when u get a margin call

You can easily check your margin call level by subtracting (# of contracts X intraday margin) then you'll see the unrealized loss needed before the margin call threshold. Of course if you keep your total risk to 10% or less governed by the stop loss you should never reach it unless one ignores the stop and averages down.

This is the famous FT71 intervention audio recording well recommended if you're starting out. It sounds like the guy may have averaged down to greater than 30 contracts where he seemed to have lost total of $130k in 3-6 months.
FuturesTrader71 | Trader Analysis 2011-09-01

( you can see the "monkey" reminder when Big Mike says TGIF on Fridays

The main thing is to "stay in the game" long enough to learn how to at least break even which is a whole phase by itself, then do well. Most have to struggle. There are a very few geniuses who get good in half a year, but what are the chances.

Suggestions:

Start with $5k account.
Trade in mini-futures like M6E or Forex at .01 or .02 lots, or small shares (200 or so) on the SPX.
If 40% drawdown (around -2k), then quit live trading for 3 months, research and regroup before coming back. & maybe
change broker.
Once 50% gain, then ok to add more to account. so at 7500, 10k, etc. One big lucky trade doesn't count.
If continuing profitably until $12k reached, then ok to trade 1 full futures contract instrument. At least $20k for 2 contracts. Some stick to $30 or $40k before going to 2.

Then after above it's like the steps to trading:


Good luck.

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  #18 (permalink)
Birmingham UK
 
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budfox View Post
So what advice yall have?
BF

Maybe turn down the volume?

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  #19 (permalink)
Chiang Mai Thailand
 
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budfox View Post
I posted a thread asking whether a broker would allow me to open an account with 2000.

This thread is totally different....its about first-time trader , trading the ES (Index Fture) ....how should they trade the very first week......

you have been in sim for 5 weeks--i assume with profit---why should you change anything? only thing i would do is pay very close attention to your emotional state while trading real money--and whether that emotional state causes you to veer away from your trading plan.--

good luck

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  #20 (permalink)
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asiaexpat View Post
you have been in sim for 5 weeks--i assume with profit---why should you change anything? only thing i would do is pay very close attention to your emotional state while trading real money--and whether that emotional state causes you to veer away from your trading plan.--

good luck

Recently lost $500 on bad trade (stocks) .

I could go back in the market and it wouldnt affect me.

so long as I learnt why I lost it.

I'm mature I can handle my emotions like a real man.

Seeing some tiny profit on the sim.....made 150 yesterday and 23 the day before that.....

my strength is I know how to place stops and can cut my losses quick - I'm not one of those fools who sit there and watch his trade go the other way dreaming about it "turning around" .

LIke I said, I dont know much.....but I wont rest until I am successful at the ES. Even if that means reading/watching every article/video on technical analysis and reliable patterns.

So Asia, how long have you been trading the ES for?

Thanks for giving me practical advice.

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  #21 (permalink)
Toronto
 
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asiaexpat View Post
you have been in sim for 5 weeks--i assume with profit---why should you change anything? only thing i would do is pay very close attention to your emotional state while trading real money--and whether that emotional state causes you to veer away from your trading plan.--

good luck

Asia

I just read your trading journal, You are only one step ahead of me. How much time did you spend in SIM before you started trading live?

You have to take your sim experience seriously: I ahve been in sim for 5weeks, every single day making very extensive notes on every single trade
  • I adjusted my SIM account from 50,000 to a realistic $2900.00
  • I trade using the same system I did with stocks
  • I pretended it was for real....when I made a bad trade, I was disappointed
  • I even deducted commissions fees from every trade.
When you are in the armed forces, you practice manouvers with the Miles Laser System (kinda like laser tag but on real M16s)....but you dont goof around, you pretend you are on an actual mission - even though there are no bullets. Everything has to replicated as if it were real life.


if I fukked up in SIM, I would NEVER trade for real (as greedy as I am).

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  #22 (permalink)
Chiang Mai Thailand
 
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budfox View Post
Recently lost $500 on bad trade (stocks) .

I could go back in the market and it wouldnt affect me.

so long as I learnt why I lost it.

I'm mature I can handle my emotions like a real man.

Seeing some tiny profit on the sim.....made 150 yesterday and 23 the day before that.....

my strength is I know how to place stops and can cut my losses quick - I'm not one of those fools who sit there and watch his trade go the other way dreaming about it "turning around" .

LIke I said, I dont know much.....but I wont rest until I am successful at the ES. Even if that means reading/watching every article/video on technical analysis and reliable patterns.

So Asia, how long have you been trading the ES for?

Thanks for giving me practical advice.

i assumed that you were consistantly profitable in sim.

I don't trade ES. I trade CL and YM.

I trade mostly in SIM as I try to fine tune my strategy and plan. I do take live trades when I see a setup that I really feel confident about--and for me that means scalping within ranges and channels. 3-4-5 ticks and the occasional runner. Around 11:30 AM NY CL tends to slow down and form nice patterns that fall into my sweet spot for trading I and can often reel off 10-15 consecutive small winners.

I was a little like you at first--did a little sim and then jumped right into ES--got creamed and now I take a much more professional and realistic approach. One of my weaknesses is overtrading --at least in SIM.

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  #23 (permalink)
Toronto
 
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asiaexpat View Post

I was a little like you at first--did a little sim and then jumped right into ES--got creamed and now I take a much more professional and realistic approach. One of my weaknesses is overtrading --at least in SIM.

OK great, do you know why you got creamed?

impulsive?

not placing the stops properly?

What patterns did you see in the bad trades?

Just so I/we can get more educated (learn from other mistakes).

Also how long we're you trading in sim for? and what was your performance in Sim like compared to Live?

Thanks

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  #24 (permalink)
Chiang Mai Thailand
 
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budfox View Post
Asia

I just read your trading journal, You are only one step ahead of me. How much time did you spend in SIM before you started trading live?

You have to take your sim experience seriously: I ahve been in sim for 5weeks, every single day making very extensive notes on every single trade
  • I adjusted my SIM account from 50,000 to a realistic $2900.00
  • I trade using the same system I did with stocks
  • I pretended it was for real....when I made a bad trade, I was disappointed
  • I even deducted commissions fees from every trade.
When you are in the armed forces, you practice manouvers with the Miles Laser System (kinda like laser tag but on real M16s)....but you dont goof around, you pretend you are on an actual mission - even though there are no bullets. Everything has to replicated as if it were real life.


if I fukked up in SIM, I would NEVER trade for real (as greedy as I am).

Hey-

I spent about 3 days sim before I went live

Now I'm back in SIM but do make lives trades as previously noted.

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  #25 (permalink)
Chiang Mai Thailand
 
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budfox View Post
OK great, do you know why you got creamed?

impulsive?

not placing the stops properly?

What patterns did you see in the bad trades?

Just so I/we can get more educated (learn from other mistakes).

Also how long we're you trading in sim for? and what was your performance in Sim like compared to Live?

Thanks

I do bad in volatile markets--stops can get spiked out in the blink of an eye--and my risk tolerance doesn't allow for big stops.

My stats very clearly show that I do better ( in fact profitable) in premarket and the times between NY 11:30 AM --1:00 PM--i stop after that anyway cause thats 1:00 AM in my timezone.
But I am in no hurry to go live again full time --I will practice and fine tune and learn, learn, learn, same charts-same indicators-day in and day out-- testing a few indicators--blah blah--- and I will conquer

edited--when i say i will conquer--not the markets--but myself

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  #26 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
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budfox View Post
LIke I said, I dont know much.....but I wont rest until I am successful at the ES.

That is a great resilient attitude....


budfox View Post
Even if that means reading/watching every article/video on technical analysis and reliable patterns.

....and while learning by reading/video can be helpful in some ways, ultimately that won't create success. I'm not sure why I'm even posting about this but good luck with the trading budfox.

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  #27 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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budfox View Post
What you mean by outside edge?

so if I think it will hit 1680.75.......I should set my order to 80.50 to make sure I get filled?

ES will more often then not move foward two steps, back one. Not literally ""two" and "one" as in ticks or points, that is up to you to figure out

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  #28 (permalink)
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I sincerely wish you the best of luck.

"Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." - Woody Allen
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  #29 (permalink)
Toronto
 
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josh View Post
That is a great resilient attitude....



....and while learning by reading/video can be helpful in some ways, ultimately that won't create success. I'm not sure why I'm even posting about this but good luck with the trading budfox.

What will create success?

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  #30 (permalink)
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josh View Post
That is a great resilient attitude....



....and while learning by reading/video can be helpful in some ways, ultimately that won't create success. I'm not sure why I'm even posting about this but good luck with the trading budfox.

Josh how long you been trading the ES for?

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  #31 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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budfox View Post
What will create success?

Time, patience, acceptance, risk versus reward, trading less, happiness, relaxation, self-learning...

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  #32 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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budfox View Post
What will create success?

Any person successful in any endeavor could give a list of things which might contribute to success. I don't think it's much different in trading. Here are a few that come to mind: have goals and ways to reach them; understand the game you're playing and know the rules of the game; be disciplined in your approach; enjoy the process; learn from others; know your strengths and weaknesses and act accordingly. The list could go on, but these are a few.

Learning from what you read and watch is a necessary part of the process to some degree. Lots of good info here at futures.io (formerly BMT) for example. But most traders know "technical analysis and reliable patterns" quite well. Why would learning that stuff make you successful? It's all common knowledge. There are some very good principles that can be gleaned from traditional technical analysis, but a technical analysis book will teach you exactly how to trade like everyone else does who reads it, and when you do that you are one of "the herd."

If you are a trader, you are taking part in a game. In fact, there are several games going on at the same time in any given market. The rules of the game are not found in a $39.95 technical analysis book or a $59.95 video. Is it logical that traders or investors who risk millions and billions of dollars do the same things that "Day Trading For Dummies" advises you to do? I'm not saying you can't pick up good information, it's just that for every helpful thing you read, you'll read two other things that are just plain silly. One example: a common technical analysis tenet is, place your stop under the last swing low (or above the last swing high). Go ahead, try it, see how well that works for you. Only in fading common technical analysis principles is there much benefit to it. Again, just my opinion.

The bottom line is: knowledge is important. But understanding how markets work does not come from books. Trading requires independent thought, formulation of logical opinions, and then betting money on those opinions.



budfox View Post
Josh how long you been trading the ES for?

First traded it 2.5 years ago, but really focused on it starting just under 2 years ago. The more I learn, the more I realize there is to learn about markets, the financial industry, and myself.

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GaryD View Post
Time, patience, acceptance, risk versus reward, trading less, happiness, relaxation, self-learning...

lol.

What advice can you give me with regards to entering and exiting stocks.

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josh View Post
First traded it 2.5 years ago, but really focused on it starting just under 2 years ago. The more I learn, the more I realize there is to learn about markets, the financial industry, and myself.


So you trade the ES every day? full-time job? Major respect if thats the case

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budfox View Post
So you trade the ES every day? full-time job? Major respect if thats the case

I trade the ES every day. I also do other things, but between the hours of 7:45 - 16:30 that's all I do (plus night prep, fun at futures.io (formerly BMT), etc.).

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budfox View Post
lol.

What advice can you give me with regards to entering and exiting stocks.

Practice

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So how have the first couple of weeks been going for you?

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Okay come on budfox. Let's hear the update. It will be painful, but just get it off your chest and tell us. Others can learn from this too. I started a thread very similar to yours a couple months back. I've been honest. Your turn.

You weren't ready were you? I had to learn the hard way too. You aren't alone by any means.

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Chrismind View Post
Okay come on budfox. Let's hear the update. It will be painful, but just get it off your chest and tell us. Others can learn from this too. I started a thread very similar to yours a couple months back. I've been honest. Your turn.

You weren't ready were you? I had to learn the hard way too. You aren't alone by any means.

He hasn't logged in since August 6th as of this post according to his public user profile.

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lol


Its going ok....some days I profit, others I lose...



Chris- How long did it take before you blew your account?

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budfox View Post
Chris- How long did it take before you blew your account?

I didn't technically blow it. I started a $5k account, and within 4 weeks had reduced it to $2k. That was enough for me to learn my lesson. I'm now back in SIM, doing a combine, working on myself. May I suggest you do the same? Turn off the live account. Withdraw your money. Go back to SIM. The money isn't the important thing here. Money can be replaced. You are killing your mental capital, and digging yourself a true hole that might be inescapable. The more you fail, the more you kill your confidence, then that makes you fail more, down....hill.....spiralllllll. It won't just get better.

I have almost no real knowledge when it comes to trading, yet. But I have learned what I typed above. You may be just like me though. No matter how many times you read this, you have to learn for yourself. That's fine too. Much harder route though.

I thought I was jumping the gun a little, but 5 weeks? You crazy. With regards

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P.S. - Another lesson you can learn from me, and many others. Don't try to start with a $5k account.

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  #43 (permalink)
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This really should be in the beginners section. Great thread for newcomers to see.

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Cloudy View Post
Suggestions:

Start with $5k account.
Trade in mini-futures like M6E or Forex at .01 or .02 lots, or small shares (200 or so) on the SPX.
If 40% drawdown (around -2k), then quit live trading for 3 months, research and regroup before coming back. & maybe
change broker.
Once 50% gain, then ok to add more to account. so at 7500, 10k, etc. One big lucky trade doesn't count.
If continuing profitably until $12k reached, then ok to trade 1 full futures contract instrument. At least $20k for 2 contracts. Some stick to $30 or $40k before going to 2.

Then after above it's like the steps to trading:


From the advice I heard above from a pro trader, it's ok to start with a 5k account provided it was trading on mini-contracts of some other instrument or small shares on the SPX. Starting $5k trading regular ES contracts may have been too risky imo.
So it's all good, 3 months of sim and researching and learning than trying live again. Futures cost a lot more to learn to trade than forex, so losing $2.5k every 8 months (3 months in between and say 5 months of practicing trading live small amounts) is far better and preferable than most newcomers who rushed into futures daytrading.

An interesting thread on one day losses:
What is the worst one day loss you ever had?

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lets make this interesting......


What if I told you I started my account with $1500.

I want everyone on here to guess what amount it is now, since you guys are so familiar with my trading skills.

Also Chris, how much sim trading you had before you started live trading?

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budfox View Post
lets make this interesting......


What if I told you I started my account with $1500.

I want everyone on here to guess what amount it is now, since you guys are so familiar with my trading skills.

Also Chris, how much sim trading you had before you started live trading?

I'm guessing it must be at least a million by now, since you haven't posted any screenshots of your results. You're just too modest. :-)

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budfox View Post
lets make this interesting......


What if I told you I started my account with $1500.

I want everyone on here to guess what amount it is now, since you guys are so familiar with my trading skills.

Also Chris, how much sim trading you had before you started live trading?

hi budfox,

What if I told you it doesn't matter what number is in your account now (3 weeks into the game), but what is your account 50 weeks later?

Congrats on your early successes (if you had them). Word of advice, if the number you have is substantially greater than $2000, IMO, you would have taken on too much risk and are susceptible to a blow up sooner or later.

For me, if I were to have started with a $1500 account, I would be extremely pleased with an account from $1400 to $1700 after 3 weeks (assume active trading on a daily basis). At least I know that my risk is actively managed and I can do this day in day out consistently.

Nevertheless, I always leave the possibility that you are god's gift to trading and perhaps you have grown the account substantially whilst mitigating the risks involved in trading. Afterall, we traders are never able to predict the market, and we always leave the possibility for a black swan, no matter how small.

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lifeguardsteve88 View Post
I'm guessing it must be at least a million by now, since you haven't posted any screenshots of your results. You're just too modest. :-)

No be serious, what you think it is (i never doubled it or anything) and no my skills still need a lot of development..

but how much you think an amateur could make in a few weeks on the ES?

and yeah you guys were right this market is hard to trade.

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budfox View Post
No be serious, what you think it is (i never doubled it or anything) and no my skills still need a lot of development..

but how much you think an amateur could make in a few weeks on the ES?

and yeah you guys were right this market is hard to trade.

As strikebackfast mentioned, it all depends on how far you overextended your appropriate risk level- and how fortunate (lucky) you were that the overextension didn't come back and "bite you in the a$$" at this early stage in your trading. If you assume the generic acceptable per trade risk level of 1-2% of your account per trade (which with your account initial balance of $1,500 would put your maximum per trade acceptable risk level of $15-$30... or in other words, a one or two tick stop loss on a single contract trade), then you are Damn Lucky if you didn't get stopped out every single time (assuming you followed sensible risk management- which by the fact of you trading the ES on a $1,500 account would make that a Highly Improbable assumption). Being that the harmonic rotation of the ES calls for a stop loss of somewhere between 2.5-3.0 Points, and If you did use an acceptably adequate stop loss (lest's say 2.5 point for the sake of this discussion), that means you ran a risk level of almost 10% per trade on a single contract trade..... which is by any measure an unacceptably high risk level to run. So, to be serious (as you asked), what you made is irrelevant. What you are doing by trading the ES on a $1,500 account IS relevant, and highly unadvisable (to put it nicely). But good luck with your quest...even the Powerball Lottery is won by someone, hopefully you carry that kind of luck as well.

Cheers!

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lifeguardsteve88 View Post
I'm guessing it must be at least a million by now, since you haven't posted any screenshots of your results. You're just too modest. :-)

And... JP Morgan called to discuss the purchase of the algo they just cant beat.

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Call me a nutterhead, but I have the opinion that having a small account isn't a problem. OK not $1500 account to trade the ES, but say $5000, which by all standards is considered a small account.

IMO, it is the inexperience coupled with an undersized account that will wreck any new trader, not merely the undersized account. Give a seasoned pro a $5000 account and I'm sure he will be able to trade the ES profitably (but it wouldn't be worth his time )

Thus that being said, I'm not sure of the level of expertise our friend budfox is at. He claims he is a newbie , which obviously doesn't bode well for my equation above. That said, everyone has to start somewhere. I guess whatever the PnL is, it is a worthwhile lesson for a budding trader. Busting an account is a rite of passage afterall!

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strikebackfast View Post
Call me a nutterhead, but I have the opinion that having a small account isn't a problem. OK not $1500 account to trade the ES, but say $5000, which by all standards is considered a small account.

IMO, it is the inexperience coupled with an undersized account that will wreck any new trader, not merely the undersized account. Give a seasoned pro a $5000 account and I'm sure he will be able to trade the ES profitably (but it wouldn't be worth his time )

Thus that being said, I'm not sure of the level of expertise our friend budfox is at. He claims he is a newbie , which obviously doesn't bode well for my equation above. That said, everyone has to start somewhere. I guess whatever the PnL is, it is a worthwhile lesson for a budding trader. Busting an account is a rite of passage afterall!

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 4

I agree. But you would think that IF Budfox actually made any profit at all at this stage, he would have no issue with posting a screenshot of his success. As they say- "pics, or it didn't happen" And it still doesn't negate the principle that what he is attempting as a newbie with an account of that size is "unadvisable", regardless of any early success.

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In case you thought account size didn't matter, I encourage you to rethink that position. Why? 3 words: RISK OF RUIN

Here is an example of what I mean...

Let's say you have a neat day trading system. It trades 2 times a day. Winning trades are $200 after all costs, 50% of the time. When it loses the other 50% of the time, it loses $175 net.

So, per day, on average, you'd make $25 a day. In a year, you'd make $6,300 per contract. If you traded this with a $10K account, always with one contract, you'd make 63% annual return, with somewhere around 15% drawdown. By most measures that is really good.

Now, let's say you take this positive expectancy system, and trade it with a small account, $5K and under. Let's say you get $500 day trading margin, so that is your "ruin" point - if your account drops below $500, you are ruined and you quit trading.

In one year of trading, how likely are you to be ruined (drop below $500, and cease trading)?

Here are the results...




So the question is: where do you feel comfortable being on this curve? The guy with $1,500 is probably panicking after each loss, since he doesn't have much wiggle room. But the guy with $5,000 - still a small account, only 3.3x the other guy's account - is 20 times less likely to be ruined.

Being underfunded can be disastrous, even with a winning system.

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I think this thread as well as all the others started by budfox are going to serve as excellent resources for newbies to learn from going forward. The threads show a clear path so common among new traders:
  1. Looking for the cheapest broker who will let him trade with the smallest possible account size
  2. Getting fixated on trading one of the largest dollar per tick instruments available for no real reason. I guess "that's what all the cool kids are trading". Why waste time learning on micro's?
  3. Asking for advice but then ignoring most of it, some of which was from very experienced traders
  4. Going silent with no further posts after he started trading
  5. Upon finally posting again, defensiveness and still adamant that he will be the 1 newbie trader in a million who will be able to trade the ES on such a small account

Steps not yet reached:
  1. Blowing out the account
  2. Either leaving trading completely, or starting from scratch taking it much slower this time and heeding some of the lessons learnt the 1st time around. Realizing just how difficult this business is and that it not only takes 100% dedication, but will also take a lot more humility, capital, time and experience to have any hope of making it.

As mentioned by others, whether budfox is up or down currently is largely irrelevant given such a short time frame. The risk of ruin coupled with lack of live trading experience is too great to have the odds in his corner.

This is not the first trader to follow this exact same path, and it wont be the last. Learn from it.

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Bud Fox -

Out of interest, why did you decide ES would be the best contract to start trading?

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budfox View Post
No be serious, what you think it is (i never doubled it or anything) and no my skills still need a lot of development..

but how much you think an amateur could make in a few weeks on the ES?

and yeah you guys were right this market is hard to trade.

Okay I'll bite. I guess you built your account up from $1,500 to $2,000(when you wrote that post last thursday). I will guess your account size now, is down to 500. Close?

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Chrismind View Post
Okay I'll bite. I guess you built your account up from $1,500 to $2,000(when you wrote that post last thursday). I will guess your account size now, is down to 500. Close?

lol

silence is golden

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  #59 (permalink)
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The "I told you so responses" to this thread are imho not constructive to helping a (potentially) struggling trader.

Understanding, compassion, and an honest desire to help are much more inviting and productive.

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DarkPoolTrading View Post
I think this thread as well as all the others started by budfox are going to serve as excellent resources for newbies to learn from going forward. The threads show a clear path so common among new traders:
  1. Looking for the cheapest broker who will let him trade with the smallest possible account size
  2. Getting fixated on trading one of the largest dollar per tick instruments available for no real reason. I guess "that's what all the cool kids are trading". Why waste time learning on micro's?
  3. Asking for advice but then ignoring most of it, some of which was from very experienced traders
  4. Going silent with no further posts after he started trading
  5. Upon finally posting again, defensiveness and still adamant that he will be the 1 newbie trader in a million who will be able to trade the ES on such a small account

Steps not yet reached:
  1. Blowing out the account
  2. Either leaving trading completely, or starting from scratch taking it much slower this time and heeding some of the lessons learnt the 1st time around. Realizing just how difficult this business is and that it not only takes 100% dedication, but will also take a lot more humility, capital, time and experience to have any hope of making it.

As mentioned by others, whether budfox is up or down currently is largely irrelevant given such a short time frame. The risk of ruin coupled with lack of live trading experience is too great to have the odds in his corner.

This is not the first trader to follow this exact same path, and it wont be the last. Learn from it.


I'm new to trading and this post is priceless. Actually, you could probably put a value on it if you could add up all the blown accounts that were too small for the instrument and the experience level. I have printed out this post, posted it on the door to my office, and drawn an arrowed line after "Blowing out the account" with the words "Start Here". Thank you for these words of advise.

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TrendTraderBH View Post
The "I told you so responses" to this thread are imho not constructive to helping a (potentially) struggling trader.

Understanding, compassion, and an honest desire to help are much more inviting and productive.

Sir, your mature attitude is definitely appreciated on this forum, I am certain with such an attitude you will be immensely successful in your trading endeavours.

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budfox View Post
lets make this interesting......I want everyone on here to guess what amount it is now, since you guys are so familiar with my trading skills...

@budfox, what is your trading amount now? You had experience in trading stocks so you aren't a newbie in trading. My guess is that you managed to at least double the amount at that time of post.. am I right?

Btw, do spare a thought for those who gave "I told you so responses". These traders meant well and they don't want you lose your money, as trading futures is very tough. One day, when you re-read those posts, I believe you'll appreciate them as I have. Please keep an open mind.. (I'm also reminding myself of my own advice..)

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Cloudy View Post
Suggestions:

Start with $5k account.
Trade in mini-futures like M6E or Forex at .01 or .02 lots, or small shares (200 or so) on the SPX.
If 40% drawdown (around -2k), then quit live trading for 3 months, research and regroup before coming back. & maybe
change broker.
Once 50% gain, then ok to add more to account. so at 7500, 10k, etc. One big lucky trade doesn't count.
If continuing profitably until $12k reached, then ok to trade 1 full futures contract instrument. At least $20k for 2 contracts. Some stick to $30 or $40k before going to 2.

Then after above it's like the steps to trading:


Good luck.

Adding to the above, if one finds it "boring" or "too slow" to trade the micros or minis , and have larger access to trading funds and want to risk more, then the same can be applied to a larger account. i.e. start with $12500 on 1 ES contract.

Then if account dwindles to $6250 then off of trading for 3 months to research and regroup before trying with $12500 again.

When $12500 account reaches $18750 , can add more to account but not to exceed $25000, still on 1 ES contract
If $18750 account dwindles to $9375 then off trading 3 months, research and regroup, then start over at $12500.
On reaching $25000, can add more to account but not to exceed $31250, still trading on 1 ES contract
If $25000 account dwindles to $12500, then off trading 3 months, research and regroup, then start over at $12500.

On reaching $31250, one has passed the "live trials", and can start trading on 2 ES contracts, then every 10k to 20k afterwards , can add one more ES contract. Then up to the trader when to take trading breaks, vacations, money management, etc.

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Cloudy View Post
Adding to the above, if one finds it "boring" or "too slow" to trade the micros or minis , and have larger access to trading funds and want to risk more, then the same can be applied to a larger account. i.e. start with $12500 on 1 ES contract.

Then if account dwindles to $6250 then off of trading for 3 months to research and regroup before trying with $12500 again.

When $12500 account reaches $18750 , can add more to account but not to exceed $25000, still on 1 ES contract
If $18750 account dwindles to $9375 then off trading 3 months, research and regroup, then start over at $12500.
On reaching $25000, can add more to account but not to exceed $31250, still trading on 1 ES contract
If $25000 account dwindles to $12500, then off trading 3 months, research and regroup, then start over at $12500.

On reaching $31250, one has passed the "live trials", and can start trading on 2 ES contracts, then every 10k to 20k afterwards , can add one more ES contract. Then up to the trader when to take trading breaks, vacations, money management, etc.

No idea where you get these #'s from, and to me they seem random at best.
These numbers are based on what method? this should apply to all universally?

The ONLY time to go back to demo is when your model breaks.
If you did your back testing and giving back 1K,3K or 5K is part of the back tested results will mean you have stopped your program at a time when you POTENTIALLY could have recovered from the drawdown based on your method. Changing your method because of a loss and going back to sim just because of a loss creates nothing but a vicious cycle of repeating live/sim that will not allow any growth as a trader..and your capital.

Take a look at CTAs, fund managers, hedge funds, and see what month to month drawdown they have. Sometimes, they erase a whole year of performance in 4 months. Never the less, in the long run, many do come out ahead with a positive expectancy without any stopping.

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mattz View Post
No idea where you get these #'s from, and to me they seem random at best.
These numbers are based on what method? this should apply to all universally?

The ONLY time to go back to demo is when your model breaks.
If you did your back testing and giving back 1K,3K or 5K is part of the back tested results will mean you have stopped your program at a time when you POTENTIALLY could have recovered from the drawdown based on your method. Changing your method because of a loss and going back to sim just because of a loss creates nothing but a vicious cycle of repeating live/sim that will not allow any growth as a trader..and your capital.

Take a look at CTAs, fund managers, hedge funds, and see what month to month drawdown they have. Sometimes, they erase a whole year of performance in 4 months. Never the less, in the long run, many do come out ahead with a positive expectancy without any stopping.

This starting out live "live training trials" was suggested by a pro trader/mentor I came across. It's primarily for those brand new to trading live. Helping to start out psychologically, getting used to, and to work out the kinks of newly trading live as well as preserving capital for a decent stretch of time on a first live trial. Maybe they have traded sim for a while and think they have got a good system so then want to start trying live. For example , the OP of this thread should not have been trading one full lot on $2.5k starting. At best half of a micro lot if possible like on a forex instrument. Or better at $5k starting with 1micro-lot.

( I realized I wrote 1 mini-lot on the ES in my prior post in this thread. I should have said 1 micro-lot or a some form of mid contract, or a roughly equivalently scaled fractional micro lot on ForEx, definitely not 1 ES contract at starting $5k. Then for $12.5k starting, just starting with 1 ES contract. )

It's based on the first post suggestion of $5k at 1micro-lot. extrapolated to 12.5k starting capital at 1 regular ES lot. The single day drawdown limit is supposed to be reasonable like 1% to 5%, or 1 to 3% preferably. So at most, 30 tick drawdown in a day max if going by 3% of $12.5k starting at 1 contract. Then 17 days of losing 30 ticks straight would hit the halfway point limit of $6250 would be the minimum time before dropping off live trading for 3 months and examining one's trading strategy and mistakes and/or trying out other ideas on sim. This affords a new live trader ample live trading trial time and gaining experience trading live.

Once a new live trader has reached the main goal of the trials, then one doesn't have to have to abide by the beginning trial management I outlined any longer. This is just a suggestion for those new to trading live, or have drastically changed their trading methods and want to start out small.

I can't really say on backtesting as I've only tried backtesting on automated strategies which never worked out for me.

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FWIW:

A consistent day trader should be making money 70% of days minimum. Otherwise you dont really have an edge. Dont lie to yourself and sit there taking hit after hit after day, telling yourself the big one will come in. Thats a trend following attitude - not a day trading attitude. A day trader goes home flat every day - having made some money - otherwise why go to work?

If you start with 10, and end up with 5, then alarm bells should be ringing at 7. You dont wait to 5 to accept you dont know what the f you are doing.

Sorry, but I dont think comparisons to hedge funds are appropriate to day traders either. Their strategies arent day trading as a retail day trader or local approaches the market. They tend to be HFT or longer term positions. Besides, as they are regulated, they have to be a lot more risk adverse than an individual can be. Remember most HF's dont make it past 4 years, and many cant beat the index. No thanks. They just milk clients in huge fees (not returns) and award it to themselves - thus the allure (and mystery as they dont want folk to know the truth). They are more like an expensive broker.

If it's not working out as it should/did in the past then either a/ the 'model' is no longer working, or b/ your not executing correctly. If a/ is the reason as it often is, then the whole thing needs to be rethought. If the 'model' is based on some pattern that is static, then you are doomed. If your idea of trading is finding some static pattern that gives an edge you are doomed. Do you really think day trading would be that easy? Theres too much money to be made for that idea to exist wiyhout competition. The model needs to be dynamic in that the parameters are flexible and adaptable. Thats one of the issues with TA approaches - another subject....

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Cloudy View Post
..........I can't really say on backtesting as I've only tried backtesting on automated strategies which never worked out for me.

I know you have the best of intentions to help.
But, You always have to back test every method whether automated and/or discretionary.
At the end of the day, there has to be a reference point to decide whether it is a draw-down or the model has been broken. I agree that it is much easier to test methods on automation as oppose to discretionary
that may require variables that are hard to quantify.

M

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  #68 (permalink)
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The Truth:

i hope guys are happy: I not only blew my account once, twice.....but recently six times!

Everytime I blew my account, I added like 100 to top it up. then tried to trade again. Generally I would last about a month before blowing the account.


I am coming to you hoping for positive suggestions. But I know there will be individuals with low character who will just laugh.

On the positive side, I have backtested my system over the past two months and May and the average MAE is 0.5 per a trade. I video record all trades and the end of every week I go over them noting the reasons I failed. I have manually backtested my system using excel (very time consuming, but it will be very hard backtest on Ninja)

Then I use this feedback to adjust my "Rules" and trading steps. Every losing trade I learn. I don't even bother going over the winning trades.

I will demo trade for another week, and after four successful (consecutive) trades in sim, I will put on my armour and go back to the frontline.

I am also considering trading the CL (but I am assuming the skill requried and margin is too high for me).

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budfox View Post
The Truth:

i hope guys are happy: I not only blew my account once, twice.....but recently six times!

Everytime I blew my account, I added like 100 to top it up. then tried to trade again. Generally I would last about a month before blowing the account.


I am coming to you hoping for positive suggestions. But I know there will be individuals with low character who will just laugh.

On the positive side, I have backtested my system over the past two months and May and the average MAE is 0.5 per a trade. I video record all trades and the end of every week I go over them noting the reasons I failed. I have manually backtested my system using excel (very time consuming, but it will be very hard backtest on Ninja)

Then I use this feedback to adjust my "Rules" and trading steps. Every losing trade I learn. I don't even bother going over the winning trades.

I will demo trade for another week, and after four successful (consecutive) trades in sim, I will put on my armour and go back to the frontline.

I am also considering trading the CL (but I am assuming the skill requried and margin is too high for me).

A good place to start would be to go back and look at all the advice you got begging you to not do what you were doing, but you chose to ignore.

Do not trade CL. Trade micro's only, limit yourself to 2 trades per day. Read this thread front to back:



Also watch these webinars on how to generate a trading plan you have confidence in:







https://futures.io/webinars/may30_2012/futurestrader71_review/

https://futures.io/webinars/mar22_2012/futurestrader71_risk_trading_probabilities/

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budfox View Post

I am coming to you hoping for positive suggestions.

Glad you came back. Experience is a great teacher.


budfox View Post

Every losing trade I learn. I don't even bother going over the winning trades.

Two things. I would go over the winning trades also. Sometimes you make a mistake and get lucky but you don't check because you made money. Second, Read books on trading psychology in the meantime before you go live. It will help.

Math. A gateway drug to reality.
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Big Mike View Post
A good place to start would be to go back and look at all the advice you got begging you to not do what you were doing, but you chose to ignore.

Do not trade CL. Trade micro's only, limit yourself to 2 trades per day. Read this thread front to back:



Also watch these webinars on how to generate a trading plan you have confidence in:







https://futures.io/webinars/may30_2012/futurestrader71_review/

https://futures.io/webinars/mar22_2012/futurestrader71_risk_trading_probabilities/

Mike

How long have you been trading the ES?

maybe I will trade the junior CL the QM.......glanced over your thread on that.

Thanks.

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budfox View Post
How long have you been trading the ES?

I started trading ES about 6 or 7 years ago, after over 10 years of swing trading equities.

Mike

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  #73 (permalink)
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budfox View Post
The Truth:

i hope guys are happy: I not only blew my account once, twice.....but recently six times!

Everytime I blew my account, I added like 100 to top it up. then tried to trade again. Generally I would last about a month before blowing the account.


I am coming to you hoping for positive suggestions. But I know there will be individuals with low character who will just laugh.

On the positive side, I have backtested my system over the past two months and May and the average MAE is 0.5 per a trade. I video record all trades and the end of every week I go over them noting the reasons I failed. I have manually backtested my system using excel (very time consuming, but it will be very hard backtest on Ninja)

Then I use this feedback to adjust my "Rules" and trading steps. Every losing trade I learn. I don't even bother going over the winning trades.

I will demo trade for another week, and after four successful (consecutive) trades in sim, I will put on my armour and go back to the frontline.

I am also considering trading the CL (but I am assuming the skill requried and margin is too high for me).

Good for you @budfox for admitting defeat and seeking advice. Not many people have the balls to do so.

IMO, you are owed a "thanks" from everyone that predicted your demise cause you fessed up to it and admitted they were right. You didn't run and hide, never to post again

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  #74 (permalink)
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budfox View Post
The Truth:

i hope guys are happy: I not only blew my account once, twice.....but recently six times!

Everytime I blew my account, I added like 100 to top it up. then tried to trade again. Generally I would last about a month before blowing the account.


I am coming to you hoping for positive suggestions. But I know there will be individuals with low character who will just laugh.

On the positive side, I have backtested my system over the past two months and May and the average MAE is 0.5 per a trade. I video record all trades and the end of every week I go over them noting the reasons I failed. I have manually backtested my system using excel (very time consuming, but it will be very hard backtest on Ninja)

Then I use this feedback to adjust my "Rules" and trading steps. Every losing trade I learn. I don't even bother going over the winning trades.

I will demo trade for another week, and after four successful (consecutive) trades in sim, I will put on my armour and go back to the frontline.

I am also considering trading the CL (but I am assuming the skill requried and margin is too high for me).

As Big Mike already suggested, you received excellent advise in the threads you initially started but chose to ignore. There was no magical predictions being made. You're simply not the first person to approach trading like you did, and you certainly wont be the last. What matters now is,...will you go back and read every single post from your threads and actually listen?

Some suggestions:
  • Trade micro forex or micro futures. To start off with, your goal is NOT to make money. Your goal is to NOT LOSE money while you go through the learning curve. This is a hard pill to swallow. At this stage, you really are not trying to make money. Just survive the learning curve.
  • Accept that this is going to take you a LONG time. Each lesson in trading is hard earned, as you have just realized.
  • Learn how the markets work. Dont just dive head first into trying to make a profitable system. Why do markets move? How do different time frames affect the market? Do you notice any repeatable patterns, what is causing them? Markets are fractal, have you observed this for yourself? What is your belief about what drives markets intraday, swing etc?
  • Focus on risk and money management
  • Be careful of using indicators early on. They certainly have their place for some, but if your only focus is on indicators at this stage, then you're not learning to read the market, you're learning to wait till squiggly lines cross. Add indicators later if you feel the need to at that point.
Good luck. Do it right this time round. Take it slow. Learn. Heed advice. Lose the ego, lose the sarcasm.

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budfox View Post
...i hope guys are happy... But I know there will be individuals with low character who will just laugh...

@lrfsdad, do you really think so?

Just two of his statements tell me otherwise. I will definitely avoid this thread from now on..

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lrfsdad View Post
Good for you @budfox for admitting defeat and seeking advice. Not many people have the balls to do so.

IMO, you are owed a "thanks" from everyone that predicted your demise cause you fessed up to it and admitted they were right. You didn't run and hide, never to post again

The point of this whole thread is that I am willing to do whatever it takes to be a successful trader . I already finished business school - so I don't have any money to pay/waste on "trading school" or a vendor, have to pay off the student loans.

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DarkPoolTrading View Post
As Big Mike already suggested, you received excellent advise in the threads you initially started but chose to ignore. There was no magical predictions being made. You're simply not the first person to approach trading like you did, and you certainly wont be the last. What matters now is,...will you go back and read every single post from your threads and actually listen?

Some suggestions:
  • Trade micro forex or micro futures. To start off with, your goal is NOT to make money. Your goal is to NOT LOSE money while you go through the learning curve. This is a hard pill to swallow. At this stage, you really are not trying to make money. Just survive the learning curve.
  • Accept that this is going to take you a LONG time. Each lesson in trading is hard earned, as you have just realized.
  • Learn how the markets work. Dont just dive head first into trying to make a profitable system. Why do markets move? How do different time frames affect the market? Do you notice any repeatable patterns, what is causing them? Markets are fractal, have you observed this for yourself? What is your belief about what drives markets intraday, swing etc?
  • Focus on risk and money management
  • Be careful of using indicators early on. They certainly have their place for some, but if your only focus is on indicators at this stage, then you're not learning to read the market, you're learning to wait till squiggly lines cross. Add indicators later if you feel the need to at that point.
Good luck. Do it right this time round. Take it slow. Learn. Heed advice. Lose the ego, lose the sarcasm.




What you mean by markets are fractal?

Pondering over those questions you posed......

How do I go about learning to "read" the market? this is what I will try to figure out over the next couple of days.

Thank You DP.

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budfox View Post
What you mean by markets are fractal?

Pondering over those questions you posed......

How do I go about learning to "read" the market? this is what I will try to figure out over the next couple of days.

Thank You DP.

By fractal I mean that if I were to show you the following charts, each with their price and time info removed I can almost guarantee you would not be able to tell me which is which:
- 5 minute chart spanning 1 day
- 60 minute chart spanning 1 week
- Daily chart spanning a few months
etc...

Markets are fractal in nature meaning that the eb and flow occurs in a similar fashion across timeframes. This is an important concept to understand. It implies that if you become too obsessed with a ridiculously small timeframe chart, you lose awareness of the higher timeframe activity. Be aware of what the market is trying to do. Dont just choose to trade 5 minute charts because someone else is. Do 5 minute charts suit your schedule, risk limits, personality and trading style?

Reading the market is something that comes with screen time, experience and never ending learning. Personally I would recommend pulling up a naked chart (ie: no indicators, just price bars and possibly volume), and watch how the market moves for a few weeks. Make notes about your observations. You will start to notice predictable behavior. Why is it predicable? What is the market actually trying to do when these things happen?

You may want to investigate auction market theory. This is one view of how financial markets operate. Ultimately you need to determine a set of beliefs about how markets move. Whether that be auction market theory, support/resistance, Wyckoff, whatever. How do you believe markets move? (hint: it has nothing to do with squiggly lines crossing)

Don't try to blindly copy someone else's trading style. Being aware of and incorporating certain parts of someone's method into your own is one thing. But trying to outright copy it is a huge mistake in my opinion. Learn from more experienced traders, dont copy. This comes back to your beliefs about how markets operate. You likely dont have any real beliefs yet. No problem, we all start somewhere. But over time you will start to develop these beliefs, and spending all your time trying to copy trading methods built around other peoples beliefs will not help you.

This probably all sounds like a huge waste of time. Why can't you just throw up a few indicators and start making money. Sure,...that's one route you could go. These suggestions are just my opinion as a discretionary trader. Learning to really interpret what the market is trying to do, understanding market structure, will I believe ultimately shorten the learning curve.

If this was easy, everyone would be doing it.

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DarkPoolTrading View Post
Lose the ego, lose the sarcasm.

Definitely the best advice.

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budfox View Post

On the positive side, I have backtested my system over the past two months and May and the average MAE is 0.5 per a trade. I video record all trades and the end of every week I go over them noting the reasons I failed. I have manually backtested my system using excel (very time consuming, but it will be very hard backtest on Ninja)

Then I use this feedback to adjust my "Rules" and trading steps. Every losing trade I learn. I don't even bother going over the winning trades.

I am also considering trading the CL (but I am assuming the skill requried and margin is too high for me).

Here are some problems as I see them:

1. You're focusing on the negative. Dont. ie you are focusing/studying your losers. Focus instead on your winners. Currently you are reinforcing the negative. Try to learn what you are doing right, not what you are doing wrong. Typical pop-psychology mumbo-jumbo about 'learning from your mistakes'. It's bull. It's only useful advise for complete novices.

2. Dont go adjusting your 'rules' too often. In fact, throw your rules out. Develop guidelines and boundaries by all means. You need to think in terms of probabilities, not hard rules.

3. CL. JMO, this isnt really a great market for daytraders. Its expensive and too volatile. Greed usually draws people to this market and they get killed. Professionals tend to spread it, never trade it outright. Try ES or the treasuries. Learn to trade something slower and less volatile.

4. Dont spend too long in research on the internet or backtesting. You'll get more benefit actually watching those recordings if the market isnt open. Be careful who you take advise from.

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Markets aren't fractal at all. Sorry they just arent.

To help anyone understand why this is, you may want to research why commodity markets are more volatile to the upside, where as equities are more volatile to the down side.

It may be worth taking the idea further and understanding the whole concept of chart patterns is badly, badly broken: Everything seems to make sense in hindsight - especially a price chart. Many find it hard to suppress the power of intuition that what makes sense in hindsight today was predictable yesterday. The illusion we understand the past means we overconfidence in our ability to predict the future. Taleb wrote about this in depth.

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the coin hunter
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budfox View Post
The Truth:

i hope guys are happy: I not only blew my account once, twice.....but recently six times!
....

neither happy nor sad this is the norm, 90% chance.

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  #83 (permalink)
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TheDude View Post
Markets aren't fractal at all. Sorry they just arent.

To help anyone understand why this is, you may want to research why commodity markets are more volatile to the upside, where as equities are more volatile to the down side.

Market bias doesn't invalidate the fractal nature of chart patterns. They are just two different kind of animals.


Quoting 
It may be worth taking the idea further and understanding the whole concept of chart patterns is badly, badly broken: Everything seems to make sense in hindsight - especially a price chart. Many find it hard to suppress the power of intuition that what makes sense in hindsight today was predictable yesterday. The illusion we understand the past means we overconfidence in our ability to predict the future. Taleb wrote about this in depth.

This is quite approximative, to be honest. And so are Taleb's ideas about randomness/luck in human performance. Extremely unsettling, to say at least.

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TheDude View Post
Markets aren't fractal at all. Sorry they just arent.

To help anyone understand why this is, you may want to research why commodity markets are more volatile to the upside, where as equities are more volatile to the down side.

It may be worth taking the idea further and understanding the whole concept of chart patterns is badly, badly broken: Everything seems to make sense in hindsight - especially a price chart. Many find it hard to suppress the power of intuition that what makes sense in hindsight today was predictable yesterday. The illusion we understand the past means we overconfidence in our ability to predict the future. Taleb wrote about this in depth.

I think you missed the point of that particular comment and are going off on a tangent.

Feel free to post 3 different charts of the same instrument. One intraday minute chart. One daily chart. One weekly chart. Remove the time and price scales. See how many people can tell you which is which.

Fractal.

Diversification is the only free lunch
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  #85 (permalink)
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Separate thread for any fractal discussions:



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DarkPoolTrading View Post
I think you missed the point of that particular comment and are going off on a tangent.

Feel free to post 3 different charts of the same instrument. One intraday minute chart. One daily chart. One weekly chart. Remove the time and price scales. See how many people can tell you which is which.

Fractal.

Yes - I'm exceptionally good at tangents

What does someones inability to spot gaps between an overnight close and open, or running the weekly highs and lows have anything to do with an incorrect assumption about price probability?

Believe me, if the markets were fractal in the Mandelbrot sense, making money would be so, so easy. Guess what....

Just because they look similar to the casual eye does not mean we should start to apply scientific terms to them.

Feel free to move these 2 posts to the other thread.

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Albnd View Post
Market bias doesn't invalidate the fractal nature of chart patterns. They are just two different kind of animals.



This is quite approximative, to be honest. And so are Taleb's ideas about randomness/luck in human performance. Extremely unsettling, to say at least.

Fractal implies symmetry.

Proven, observable, quantifiable bias disproves symmetry. QED.

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  #88 (permalink)
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Hi Mike,

I am trying to participate in that fractal thread, but it says the thread starter is ignoring you and you can't participate lol


Please can you allow me to participate in that thread.

Thank You.

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  #89 (permalink)
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Quoting 
[LIST][*]Trade micro forex or micro futures. To start off with, your goal is NOT to make money. Your goal is to NOT LOSE money while you go through the learning curve. This is a hard pill to swallow. At this stage, you really are not trying to make money. Just survive the learning curve.



I don't understand how I can focus on NOT LOSING money without NOT making money. Are you trying to say focus on risk? I limit my risk to 1.25 points (based on the average MAE over the past few weeks).

Ok how long do you suggest I trade micros for? (when will I be ready to trade regular contracts)....

I dont mind being a white belt for a while before becoming a black belt.

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budfox View Post
I limit my risk to 1.25 points (based on the average MAE over the past few weeks).

You said this earlier in this thread:


budfox View Post
my strength is I know how to place stops and can cut my losses quick - I'm not one of those fools who sit there and watch his trade go the other way dreaming about it "turning around" .

Consider the possibility (just a possibility, not a fact) that you are cutting losses too quickly and that you may indeed not be using stops effectively. A loss is not a loss until you get flat. So if you take an ES trade that goes against you 4 ticks, can you really call this a "loss"?

Remember also, that when you "stop" a loss, you also "stop" any potential for profit. "Always use a stop, keep a tight stop, etc." is the mantra of most trading educators. I saw an article one time advocating the use of hard stops all the time, and the twitter crash and mini flash crash were used as examples. The problem is, during such an event, only those with stops or who are margined too heavily will get screwed (see this article for an example). If you are long 1 ES, and a mini crash happens and you are down 40 points, that's $2K. $2K is not fun to lose, but if it hurts too bad, it means that the size is too large. You either get out, or not, but a stop will guarantee that you will lose, probably near the low tick if you use a "catastrophic stop." ES notional value is $90 grand per contract. That's the equivalent of 500 shares of SPY. You would need a $90K account to buy that much SPY ($45K if using Reg T margin), yet people will control that much ($90K) with 1 ES contract in a $2K account. Quite unreal, and I'm not pointing fingers because I've done it too.

My point #1 is that $2K (or $10K even) is just too damn small to trade futures (and you mentioned CL - just say no, you will find yourself out of $200 in about 3 seconds flat). It sucks, but that's the game we're in. If you wouldn't feel comfortable buying an ES contract and going to bed, then you shouldn't be trading it--IMHO.

Point #2 is that there are other ways to trade than the binary right or wrong so touted by most traders. If it goes against you, can you take an opposite position in another product, giving you a chance to win? Or for a trade which might span longer than a day or two, you could buy an ATM put. Today, for example, you could have bought 1800 ES and paid about 8.00 ($387.50) for the 1800 weekly put which expires next Friday. You get an 8 point stop that lasts a week, for a product with a weekly range of 30-40. And if the market goes in your favor enough, you may be able to sell your put back and recover a small portion of what you paid for it. So let ES drop 200 points if it wants--you are covered, for an effective stop loss of 1792. You are paying a premium for time, and for volatility, but it's one option vs the "if it crosses this line I'm out" approach. Of course, this is not a silver bullet since indeed you are paying the time premium so games can be played with time just as they are with price, but it's one option you have (pun intended). (also note that the weeklys are European style so you cannot exercise early) You could also gamble (trading is gambling after all) and let your position get into profit, and then buy the put for a smaller premium, reducing your cost for protection. I'm not advocating this as a general approach to risk management but it is one way to do it.

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  #91 (permalink)
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budfox View Post
I don't understand how I can focus on NOT LOSING money without NOT making money. Are you trying to say focus on risk? I limit my risk to 1.25 points (based on the average MAE over the past few weeks).

Ok how long do you suggest I trade micros for? (when will I be ready to trade regular contracts)....

I dont mind being a white belt for a while before becoming a black belt.

Mr. Fox,

I've been reading this thread with a sense of incredulity and I've debated about writing you. I'm not 100% sure this is the right thing to do. Some might say I'm wasting my time. But passion won out over logic and I gave in.

I recognize myself in you...you are more outspoken about it than I was but the attitude is the same. You don't really hear what people are saying to you. You should listen to what is being said....there is experience and integrity speaking to you from many of the posters but you are ignoring this to focus on the minor details of trading.

But let me address your self professed risk management.

Yes indeed, you are 100% unequivocally supposed to focus on NOT LOSING money without NOT making money. Do this in sim for as long as you must.

There are 5 stages:

1. Lose money without knowing why....this is you right now.
2. Lose money but know why. This is what focusing on not losing money will teach you.
3. Break Even. You know why you lose but haven't quite figured out the winning side of it yet. You finally control risk well.
4. Aha moment. You realize you actually have a quantifiable edge by looking at the same chart for a long time. And you understand the truth about trading. Its very simple but you need to find it for yourself. There's a reason they call it the holy grail. You must search for it yourself and at this point I will give you clue....its not where you think it is. Go look in the mirror. And watch the movie KungFu Panda. There is a world of trading wisdom there.
5. You win. Not because you are some great trader or have some secret sauce, but because you've learned to let the market speak to you, you are in harmony with what its trying to do and you go along for the ride. And the holy grail is yours.....this might take years...or it might take months. Much depends on how quickly you listen.

Next. Just because you think you are controlling risk with a 1.25 point stop is irrelevant and useless. Its arbitrary and capricious to assume your risk is controlled with a fixed stop of some random amount. ESPECIALLY if the trade requires a 3 point or 5 point stop. In trading its called death by a thousand cuts. And trust me, you will die that death if you think a 1.25 stop will "protect" you. Once you know why you lose money, then you can think about using a fixed stop of 1.25 even though a 3 point one might be better. I often use a 10 or 15 tick stop when I know darn well I need a 30 tick stop. But I know the reasons I need that larger stop and I know the reasons I can use a smaller one even though I should have a larger one. You don't seem to know when a larger one is necessary and when its not.

Now, go live...but not until you can honestly look yourself in the mirror and know you are not gambling and when I say gambling, I mean trading irrationally with no edge or understanding of risk control. And when you do go live, trade micros in FOREX until you can double that account while taking appropriate risk. Then move to futures or just scale up the lots in forex.

If you are ready to listen instead of talking all the time, I am sure there are people here that would be willing to share privately. But constantly asking people how long they were on sim is silly. Who cares? Some were days and some were years. Does it matter?. You go live when you're ready. This is not a race. Its a journey of self discovery and some end up realizing they don't like what they see in the mirror.

Sincerely,

Gordon Gecko

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  #92 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
Mr. Fox,

I've been reading this thread with a sense of incredulity and I've debated about writing you. I'm not 100% sure this is the right thing to do. Some might say I'm wasting my time. But passion won out over logic and I gave in.

I recognize myself in you...you are more outspoken about it than I was but the attitude is the same. You don't really hear what people are saying to you. You should listen to what is being said....there is experience and integrity speaking to you from many of the posters but you are ignoring this to focus on the minor details of trading.

But let me address your self professed risk management.

Yes indeed, you are 100% unequivocally supposed to focus on NOT LOSING money without NOT making money. Do this in sim for as long as you must.

There are 5 stages:

1. Lose money without knowing why....this is you right now.
2. Lose money but know why. This is what focusing on not losing money will teach you.
3. Break Even. You know why you lose but haven't quite figured out the winning side of it yet. You finally control risk well.
4. Aha moment. You realize you actually have a quantifiable edge by looking at the same chart for a long time. And you understand the truth about trading. Its very simple but you need to find it for yourself. There's a reason they call it the holy grail. You must search for it yourself and at this point I will give you clue....its not where you think it is. Go look in the mirror. And watch the movie KungFu Panda. There is a world of trading wisdom there.
5. You win. Not because you are some great trader or have some secret sauce, but because you've learned to let the market speak to you, you are in harmony with what its trying to do and you go along for the ride. And the holy grail is yours.....this might take years...or it might take months. Much depends on how quickly you listen.

Next. Just because you think you are controlling risk with a 1.25 point stop is irrelevant and useless. Its arbitrary and capricious to assume your risk is controlled with a fixed stop of some random amount. ESPECIALLY if the trade requires a 3 point or 5 point stop. In trading its called death by a thousand cuts. And trust me, you will die that death if you think a 1.25 stop will "protect" you. Once you know why you lose money, then you can think about using a fixed stop of 1.25 even though a 3 point one might be better. I often use a 10 or 15 tick stop when I know darn well I need a 30 tick stop. But I know the reasons I need that larger stop and I know the reasons I can use a smaller one even though I should have a larger one. You don't seem to know when a larger one is necessary and when its not.

Now, go live...but not until you can honestly look yourself in the mirror and know you are not gambling and when I say gambling, I mean trading irrationally with no edge or understanding of risk control. And when you do go live, trade micros in FOREX until you can double that account while taking appropriate risk. Then move to futures or just scale up the lots in forex.

If you are ready to listen instead of talking all the time, I am sure there are people here that would be willing to share privately. But constantly asking people how long they were on sim is silly. Who cares? Some were days and some were years. Does it matter?. You go live when you're ready. This is not a race. Its a journey of self discovery and some end up realizing they don't like what they see in the mirror.

Sincerely,

Gordon Gecko


Trying to figure out what you are saying:

1.you want me to be in phase 3? break even? so have my limit at the same price I bought the contract? b/c that will be the only way to not lose and not make any money.

2. Why Forex? How would trading forex be different to trading the ES?

3. I DO KNOW why I am losing...I made a list of all my losing trades...watched the videos....made a list of the reasons I I lost. (never used the timed stop properly, calculated my own A & C values instead of using the ones Fisher gave us)

4. 1.25 is not arbitrarily. every trade for the past two months for every day has been manually backtested and the MAE noted. The average MAE for every trade based on specific, consistent requirements is aorund 0.75.

4.1 I do focus on risk, I always ask "What can go wrong?, What can go wrong? " Worse case scenario? what is the worst case scenario....price goes down and hits my stop (as soon as price nears my stop I take my fingers off the mouse so I can't move it down)

5. When you going to hook me up with Adrien


I hope my tone isn't construed as antagonistic>>>> Big Mike's Trading is the University, or place where I come to learn. In trading there is no professor you can go to after class to get help - you have to ask strangers on the internet.

Please keep replying everyone I valueyour advice.

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  #93 (permalink)
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budfox View Post
Trying to figure out what you are saying:

1.you want me to be in phase 3? break even? so have my limit at the same price I bought the contract? b/c that will be the only way to not lose and not make any money.

2. Why Forex? How would trading forex be different to trading the ES?

3. I DO KNOW why I am losing...I made a list of all my losing trades...watched the videos....made a list of the reasons I I lost. (never used the timed stop properly, calculated my own A & C values instead of using the ones Fisher gave us)

4. 1.25 is not arbitrarily. every trade for the past two months for every day has been manually backtested and the MAE noted. The average MAE for every trade based on specific, consistent requirements is aorund 0.75.

4.1 I do focus on risk, I always ask "What can go wrong?, What can go wrong? " Worse case scenario? what is the worst case scenario....price goes down and hits my stop (as soon as price nears my stop I take my fingers off the mouse so I can't move it down)

5. When you going to hook me up with Adrien


I hope my tone isn't construed as antagonistic>>>> Big Mike's Trading is the University, or place where I come to learn. In trading there is no professor you can go to after class to get help - you have to ask strangers on the internet.

Please keep replying everyone I valueyour advice.

Again Mr. Fox you are not listening. However, I will attempt to answer your questions in a format you might be able to understand: Each point below corresponds to yours above.

1. The 5 stages are periods of time. Not a trading method or strategy. example....you lose money for 6 months and don't know why. Your point #4 above is proof you are still in this phase. Stage 3 is also a period of time where you are break even trader...for me this lasted around a year. Can you handle that? I suspect not.

2. I answered the Forex question in my original post but since you missed the point, let attempt to spell it out. Forex allows you to SIZE your trade appropriately which allows you to control risk while taking the trade. EXAMPLE: You have $5000 to trade with and your trading plan and good common sense tells you to risk around 1-2% of your account on each trade. In ES, that means your MAX stop is 4 ticks at the beginning of your trading career. Assuming your first trade is a loser, you now have $4950.0 to trade with and now you are forced to use 1.xxx% of your account, you lose again because you don't know why you are losing....slowly your account is drained....but sometimes you decide 2% is appropriate and you lose that as well.

Before long, common sense and your trade plan tells you that you are risking an ever increasing proportion of your account on each trade. It begins to snowball on itself and before long you've blown six accounts. Forex allows you to size your risk more appropriately. Instead of each tick being worth $12.50, you can make it worth as little as .10 with some brokers. This allows you to learn to trade with real money without worrying about blowing your account out first. Its the baseball equivalent of the minor leagues. I wish I had taken @Big Mike's suggestion to do this at the beginning. I suspect like most traders, you are are not willing to play in the minors for even a day. Everyone wants to go straight to the show. To bad.

3. If this was true, you would be winning and we would not be having this conversation. However I will offer you a clue here. Learn from your losers to be sure....but put together a powerpoint of 50 WINNING Trades. All the nuances need to be listed....What made those trades winners. How did it look at the time of entry, exit, How much time to completion, stops required, etc..... And review that power point slide by slide every day. BURN those trades into your brain. Right now your subconscious knows how to lose. After all you keep studying losing over and over again. Its only doing what you've trained it to do. Now teach your brain how to win. I'd show you mine but you'd start asking the wrong questions again.

4.1 This is the first rational thing you said about trading in the whole thread. Now ask yourself this question. "If the worse case scenario presents itself, is my stop in the correct location? If it is, and its hit, do I have the balls to reverse the trade instead of just taking the stop?" Because here's the deal, if your stop is in the correct place and its hit, that means you were wrong about the overall direction of the market and you need to reverse asap to be on the right side of the market. If you are afraid to reverse, that means your stop was probably in the wrong place to begin with and something inside of you knows it....the market is going your direction, it's just doing it without you.....sucker....

5. I'm not a pimp. Make your own money and hook yourself up.

Advice given but ignored leads to advice no longer given. I suggest instead of asking for more advice, you take some of it thats already been given by me and others.

For instance, over this weekend your action plan might look like this:

Mr. Bud Fox's To Do List:

1. Open a forex account with $500
2. Create a PowerPoint file and begin adding 5 trades per day to it with all notes, examples, indicator settings, etc to the slide. Do this for ten days until Mr. Gecko would be satisfied with my work.
3. Set a goal to learn why I lose money. Example: I will be fully aware of why I lose within 60 days from today.
4. Seek out a mentor. I need to be humble about this. It appears the market is older and wiser than me even though I just graduated from Harvard Business School where they told me I would be the master of the universe when I graduated.
5. Close all my ES charts. Forget about them until I can double my Forex account to $1000.00 WITHOUT adding in more money.
6. Buy one of Brent Steenbargers books. Read it over and over again.
7. Trade forex live on 30 minute charts but only in micro lots. (.10 per tick) Learn to control risk on this chart first. Gradually increase lots once I learn to win. NOT BEFORE.
8. Rent...no buy the movie Kung Fu Panda. Watch it over and over again to figure out what the heck Mr. Gecko is talking about since he wont tell me straight out...damn that guy!

And on that note, have a great weekend.

Good luck kid, you're gonna need it.

Gordon.

P.S. Oops...I forgot something kid....in the signature box of my posts are three VERY important clues to being successful in this game.....I suggest you make learning these inside and out number 9 on your to do list.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #94 (permalink)
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DarkPoolTrading View Post
[*]Learn how the markets work. Dont just dive head first into trying to make a profitable system. Why do markets move? How do different time frames affect the market? Do you notice any repeatable patterns, what is causing them? Markets are fractal, have you observed this for yourself? What is your belief about what drives markets intraday, swing etc?


Trying to figure out "what makes markets move"....my initial answer is peoples perceptions of news events ie. how certain news will influence yellen whether to taper or not.

I think thats whats really driving the markets now.

But to determine whats going on inthe minds of most traders...thats the challenge.

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  #95 (permalink)
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budfox View Post
Trying to figure out "what makes markets move"....my initial answer is peoples perceptions of news events ie. how certain news will influence yellen whether to taper or not.

I think thats whats really driving the markets now.

But to determine whats going on inthe minds of most traders...thats the challenge.

wrong, not news drives market

media and news are just manipulation tool of market operator. that's why public always become loser.

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supermht View Post
wrong, not news drives market

media and news are just manipulation tool of market operator. that's why public always become loser.

Ok what does drive it then?

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  #97 (permalink)
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budfox View Post
Ok what does drive it then?

one of driver :

demand and supply

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  #98 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post

Mr. Bud Fox's To Do List:

1. Open a forex account with $500
2. Create a PowerPoint file and begin adding 5 trades per day to it with all notes, examples, indicator settings, etc to the slide. Do this for ten days until Mr. Gecko would be satisfied with my work.
3. Set a goal to learn why I lose money. Example: I will be fully aware of why I lose within 60 days from today.
4. Seek out a mentor. I need to be humble about this. It appears the market is older and wiser than me even though I just graduated from Harvard Business School where they told me I would be the master of the universe when I graduated.
5. Close all my ES charts. Forget about them until I can double my Forex account to $1000.00 WITHOUT adding in more money.
6. Buy one of Brent Steenbargers books. Read it over and over again.
7. Trade forex live on 30 minute charts but only in micro lots. (.10 per tick) Learn to control risk on this chart first. Gradually increase lots once I learn to win. NOT BEFORE.
8. Rent...no buy the movie Kung Fu Panda. Watch it over and over again to figure out what the heck Mr. Gecko is talking about since he wont tell me straight out...damn that guy!

And on that note, have a great weekend.

Good luck kid, you're gonna need it.

Gordon.

P.S. Oops...I forgot something kid....in the signature box of my posts are three VERY important clues to being successful in this game.....I suggest you make learning these inside and out number 9 on your to do list.....


Alright, which forex instrument should I trade? which one is the most volatile?

I really know nothing about forex......

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  #99 (permalink)
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budfox View Post
Ok what does drive it then?

Mr Fox,

You should think about this instead of asking. Every poster is trying to get you to THINK.

Here are some ideas to help you get started:

Fear

Greed

Supply

Demand

Oops, I gave you the answers....still, think about this for a long time.....then come back and give us an essay about how this affects prices intra day.

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budfox View Post
Alright, which forex instrument should I trade? which one is the most volatile?

I really know nothing about forex......

then study it before you trade

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