If you know nothing about forex, why in the world would you even contemplate trading it? You realize that you are just going to be chum for eager sharks?
Based on reading this thread, I'd say you are 95% guaranteed to lose all your money if you trade anything in the next 6-12 months.
If I were you, I'd spend that time learning all I could, reading all I could, amassing capital and then building a strategy that works.
Ready - Aim - Fire is the approach you want.
Right now, you are Fire - Aim - Fire.
My advice is harsh, but it is honest. If you don't like it, please just put me on ignore, and I'll be prevented from posting here. I only will talk if you are open to listening
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might want to try playing poker online for very little, it's probably more thrilling and will teach you a little bit about trading in the meantime if you have a lot of free time. It helps one get into the mode of folding (not taking a trade), cutting your losses short, and going after probable hands. And I know this website is very unrealistic but it helped me in the beginning https://futures.io/Chartgame.com (just make sure to obey your mental stop losses since you can't add them). I know trading isn't a game at all but sometimes it's helpful to maintain interest by gaining confidence in similar activities because forex really does take time since you're most likely going to trade larger time frames.
R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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Actually, thats exactly what it is - just a game - and the one with the most money nearly always wins.
Some people take the game too seriously, and you can never win any game if you are too stressed, scared, ignorant of the rules, not prepared properly, etc etc.
This is why your poker advise is very good advise!
Actually the one telling you to trade forex and watch the movie about a panda is one and the same...me.
You make a very valid point about experience levels. You are right to be guarded. You should be at least this guarded about trading. Instead of treating us with suspicion, you should treat trading with suspicion. Not that its wrong to trade, but that you should be very careful.
Hence my advice to trade forex. You can trade very small size while you learn to trade. This protects your capital which is rule # 1 in trading.
If you can't take the advice in the manner in which it was offered, perhaps your skin is to thin for trading. There is no quarter in this business. Those of us trying to help are really looking out for you but you are suspicious. Go figure.
I was told by a good friend I was wasting my time on your thread. Prove him wrong if you can. I'm waiting to see if you take any of the advice that's been offered, even if it is counter to what I offered. So far all you've done is demand answers on a silver platter. What I and the others are trying to tell you the answers that work for us probably won't work for you. Instead we've been trying to give you clues on where to start so you can find your own answers. But you just demand more answers.
Like I said earlier, prove my friend wrong. Have you at least rented the movie?
Over the holiday, you should watch it and then tell the rest of us what you learned from a kids movie. It's one of the greatest trading movies ever made. If you learn the correct lesson from that movie, you probably won't need us anymore. And if you don't, your not ready anyway.
Later.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Hi Budfox, can understand your frustration. Guess there is no magic pill here.
As you progress to become a good trader....you will see that humility is the best form of approach in the markets.
In any vocation it takes time/perseverance & dedication. This is not advice...justt learnt it the hard way.
I think most of the folks are trying to help you.
Some of the books which gave me some understanding of the markets:- But just reading was still theory.....repeated observation of various plays what i watch is my learning. But a stop/risk mgt is always there if my observation is incorrect or a market event which goes against me. For my part i kept looking at my charts & something clicked which said buddy the stuff is in front of you....where were you looking
Lol...in lighter note....how a Master Chef....cooks n cooks...and comes up with various dishes.....so does a trader with all his technical/market observations & self discovery moves ahead.
Cheers & really good luck on yr endeavors !!
Tape Reading & Market Analytics (A classic)
The Traders Edge - Grant Noble (kool)
Mindful Trading:- Mastering Your Emotions & The Inner Game (Brilliant Psyco stuff)<<<< I Deal with this everyday
Market Wizards (Real Good)
Quants (Educational)
Just type the word 'books' into the Search field on the futures.io (formerly BMT) front page top right, it will automagically give you a great list of links to books to get started with. Just pick a few that appeal, if you don't get on with them start over till you find some that you can relate to better.
Better still watch a futures.io (formerly BMT) seminar or read a couple of new threads from start to finish every day. Do that for the whole of next year and see how you're getting on. Now that sounds crap doesn't it? Now try for the next ten years.
My original question was of course rhetorical, but we are all really trying to help you and we do indeed understand your frustration, the problem is that you don't seem to understand ours. This game ain't easy, ever. I've been learning for 13 years so far and frankly I still know just a little bit past bugger all. You have to think for yourself, start working out what fits with your ways of thinking and what suits your personality, and be prepared to keep learning forever.
Stick at it but don't expect overnight miracles. There are hundreds of ways of making it in the markets but the only one that will work in the end has to be yours.
Travel Well
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This is all you need:
A 5 minute chart.
Stochastic indicator,
MACD,
RSI,
Keltner Channels.
Buy when all the indicators at the bottom, and sell when they are at the top.
This is the system the pro's dont want you to know about.
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Beat me to it.
The OP needs to realize he is expecting everything to be handed to him, then when people take time to do so he is discounting and discarding most of it.
The better solution is for OP to learn to think for himself, do his own homework and draw his own conclusions through his research, analysis, statistics and real experiences.
If the OP is actually serious, then the next step is to not make any more posts for a while during which time he starts learning based on all the recommendations made to him. He could then start a real trading journal, not a thread where he is asking lots of questions, but instead a thread where he is documenting his trading path in a way that he can learn from it as it evolves.
Panda,
You have the patience of a saint. I can't believe you are still responding either. However, your friend is wrong. Budfox may not be listening, but others are! Really great stuff.
This thread really should be in the beginners section. There is so much great advice and learning lessons in this thread.
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Good to read “Trading in the Zone” – Mark Douglas and “The Daily Trading Coach” – Brett Steenbarger
and follow the concepts as much as you can to learn every day without losing much emotional caplet even if you loose money
Here is a short list of books I've read and recommend. I am not a big reader of books in print, I tend to prefer on-line methods... but nonetheless, these are great reads and contain a lot of information that helped me.
I'm starting part way through the thread and I'm not sure it the OP is serious or just fishing for a thread, but others may be reading , I'm sure there are many who are just starting out and don't want to be told the odds of success (as if we knew them -- Hah hah).
Books:
Forex made Easy by Raghee Horner
- I've read it (but I don't trade Forex) and it is a simple book of method not theory.
Second
Sniper trading by George Angell (sp?)
- this is a dated book but he outlines others approaches - it is geared to the ES.
---
What I read and really recommend is old school and probably not for the OP but I like WD Gann writings.
--------------
As aside from books - practice reading a chart looking at trendlines and support and resistance. Try saying it will go up/down to here and then reverse/push through. Trade an ETF - assuming this is a hobby - until you are successful and always have a stop and target before the trade (and why according to the your reading of the chart).
may the force be with you...
--- burnt two pieces of toast doing this --- I hope you/someone else gets value ....
..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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I am not sure what the specific reasons this "good friend" of yours has for thinking your, support of freshman traders is a "waste". I am sincerely grateful for your advice. I and am seriously considering it. I will even watch that movie about the Panda.
No I don't expect everything to be handed to me:
for the past six months I have been sitting in front of the screen every day, with extensive trading journals, and extensive manualbacktesting on excel (as I have already noted), and I come here to BM eager to learn and improve.
Thank You for everything, and thanks to those posters who really tried to support me (you know who you are.)
This is also your first post where you showed even the slightest bit of gratitude or humility.....those characters go a long way toward getting help here on futures.io (formerly BMT) and more importantly, they go a long way toward your learning to trade journey.
You can make a lot of money with ACD.....but its not the holy grail. If you internalize the concepts of ACD and marry them with the concepts in KungFu Panda, you will be well on your way toward being a succesful independent trader.
Good luck...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I would listen to Brian aka @PandaWarrior - improvement is GUARANTEED.
Actually I already listened to him and watched "Kung Fu Panda" (2008) again.
Amazingly it is a TRADING movie though the word trading is never mentioned.
Here are some lines that linger:
“The mind is like this water, my friend. When it is agitated, it becomes difficult to see. But if you allow it to settle, the answer becomes clear.”
“One often meets his destiny on the road he takes to avoid it.”
“Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That is why it is called the present.”
Actually the full dialogue is relevant when on the verge of quitting trading:
Po: Maybe I should just quit and go back to making noodles.
In reply: Quit, don't quit? Noodles, don't noodles? You are too concerned about what
was and what will be. There is a saying: yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today
is a gift. That is why it is called the "present."
Master Oogway tells teacher Shifu that he must let go of the illusion of control and instead nurture and believe in Po's abilities in order for him to defeat the evil Tai Lung,
Oogway: Look at this tree, Shifu, I cannot make it blossom when it suits me nor make it bear fruit before its time.
Shifu: But there are things we *can* control: I can control when the fruit will fall, I can control
where to plant the seed: that is no illusion, Master!
Oogway: Ah, yes. But no matter what you do, that seed will grow to be a peach tree. You may wish for an apple or an orange, but you will get a peach.
Mr. Ping (daddy): The secret ingredient is... nothing!
Po: Huh?
Mr. Ping: You heard me. Nothing! There is no secret ingredient.
Po: Wait, wait... it's just plain old noodle soup? You don't add some kind of special sauce or
something?
Mr. Ping: Don't have to. To make something special you just have to believe it's special.
[Po looks at the scroll again, and sees his reflection in it]
Po: There is no secret ingredient...
Tai Lung: Finally... oh, yes... at last, the power of the Dragon Scroll shall be mine!
[He opens the scroll - and stares at it - its BLANK!!!!]
Tai Lung: It's... it's nothing!
Po: It's okay. I didn't get it the first time either.
Tai Lung: What?
Po: There is no secret ingredient. It's just you.
Once you get THAT so many doors open, the angels in the sky start showering flowers upon your trading, and you never are the same trader again!
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It's fine, no harm done. I'm not one for kids movies, even though How to Train Your Dragon helped me regain faith, I will attempt to watch kung fu panda out of respect for your trading and advice. I'll report my findings in the movie thread
R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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This comes back to what I was trying to originally say to you about beliefs. Most new traders dive head first into the markets trying to find the best moving average cross or indicator setting to start pulling in the cash. They get so blinded by this initial search for the holy grail that they never (or only much later), start at the beginning with developing a solid understanding or belief about how markets operate.
It's like deciding you're going to become a chef but without any experience you simply try to copy the chef down the road who works at the best restaurant in town. You see he's making some really fancy signature dish that everyone loves so you try to copy the ingredients, throw everything together, and then act surprised when it tastes terrible. The other chef's signature dish is the culmination of years of experience and is grounded on his knowledge of how different foods/tastes interact with each other. Maybe a silly example,...but you get the idea.
That is why I suggested you spend a few weeks watching naked charts live and noting your observations. If you think there is nothing worth noting by watching a naked chart,....then this exercise is even more important. Look for repeating behavior and really ask yourself what the market is trying to do as it moves. What are the next few minutes of market action going to look like? What is likely/probable?
Auction market theory is just one way of looking at the markets. There are numerous others and no reason why yours cant be completely unique. The point is that without a grounding belief in why markets operate the way they do that makes sense to you,...you'll likely always be a wannabe chef throwing ingredients together hoping something good will come out.
Just my 2c. Others may disagree.
Diversification is the only free lunch
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I'm creating this thread with the purpose of a 'catch all' for any trading related question that futures.io (formerly BMT) members want to ask, but don't want to create a new thread for -- or find an existing thread to reply to.
Ok I will do this......then post back what I think... but my prelimanary hypothesis is that price just hits resistance moves down and then finds support moves up.
You are joking right? I thought you were going to start following advice? It's been said many times that the Elite membership is the best, and maybe only money you should spent on trading education. You can afford to blow accounts, but can't afford something that will actually help you? No hope man. No hope.
Let me just add this.......90% of the best stuff that I've learned, have come from elite threads, and more importantly elite webinars. Take it or leave it.
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Part of me feels like this is a prank and another duplicate account of user "DetroitMoney" aka "PowerBroker", and one day he'll start making death threats and legal threats against me again.
I mean come on, I usually have a great deal of patience, but this is just unreal. I think it would be better for everyone on futures.io (formerly BMT) if this thread were just closed as a "bad example". I know people like to look at wrecks as they drive by, but in honesty this thread is a train wreck. The educational value has come and gone. Not just in this thread, but in all the prior threads the OP has started and then proceeded to ignore everyone's advice on.
At some point it is simply an embarrassment for this thread to continue.
I am the first to say that we all have to start somewhere, and I do my best to make futures.io (formerly BMT) an inviting place. But the evidence is overwhelming, some people simply cannot be helped. They have to just figure it out on their own and they really don't care about any advice they receive, unless it agrees with what they want to hear.
This is not an example of trying to terminate help to the OP. This is an example of a waste of time.
I have followed lots of advice (which is deemed good advice), even to watch a movie about a panda. One has to know where the advice is coming from.
But sorry, I can not afford to spend money on your membership. This is definitely not a prank, just thought I would inform you that I am not an elite member since you are suggesting I visit "elite member" threads (Thats all).
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I read your previous threads and previous posts. You didn't follow that advice. In this thread there are numerous examples of where you are given advice, but your response to said advice is basically a "hand me the answer" mentality.
Look, futures.io (formerly BMT) is a community for helping traders. But not everyone can be a trader. I know we all think that we are the exception to the rule, but fact is, most traders fail. And there are a variety of reasons. But I think the chances of you succeeding right now are incredibly slim. I look at the amount of hard work others put into this profession, and then I look at you, and like I said this thread is almost like a prank.
I am not blaming you, we each have our own way of learning. I think yours seems to be only through your own direct actions, which means threads like this are worthless because you really aren't listening to what people are saying. You are going to just do what you want, and then learn from that. So the point of this thread is moot.
Like I said previously, if you want to benefit yourself then you shouldn't even be posting in this thread any more. You should be creating a trading journal.
I know you've said you cannot afford the $100 elite membership fee. Honestly that's fine, I don't want you to become an Elite Member because then I am afraid I would somehow feel responsible for you. And I don't need that. But the fact is, if you can't afford $100 on something like this, then you simply cannot afford to trade. So why are you trying to make that work? Your time would be far better spent on any one of numerous other careers that are far easier than trading. Even if it's only an interim career until you build up some funds to trade with.
Everyone will tell you you have no chance of being a successful trader if your focus is always on money -- trading money you can't afford to lose, rent money, etc etc.
So I know you are unlikely to take my advice, again for the countless time, but I am begging you to just stop until you come at this whole "trading thing" from a completely different angle.
Please do not take this as criticism for that is not my intention. May I suggest doing whatever you need to do to become an Elite Member. By not having access to the Elite sections of this forum, you are missing out on so much knowledge and insight freely shared by great traders from around the globe. You will not find a better investment for your trading journey than this.
Rick
"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
You seem to have a lot of questions Budfox. Maybe try this list of links I put together; kind of my own convenient faq I came across. I'm in no way saying these are all effective or comprehensive, just my own search and notes for future reference. Most of the links are non-elite.
It seems a shame he can put us on ignore, but we cant put him on ignore. After all, it's only the polite thing to do in a democracy such as the internet. Perhaps he'd be better suited to living in China than Ecuador.
Ho hum.
Wouldn't it be odd if he banned me for poking fun - given I'm on ignore and thus he shouldnt be able to see this post
I didn't realise I did. However, given 90% lose, and the ideas here are really nothing ground breaking, it's probably a good thing if I do, don't you think?
Anyway, your statement is quite false. I do not 'keep posting' here. I am not a serial poster as I spend most of my time trading, not talking about trading. I believe before today, I havent posted in over a week in fact.
To answer your question though, the answer is mostly amusement and casual interest. Certainly not education. FT71 webinars were quite interesting. I also like Cashish's thread.
Well it's been about a month. I'm curious how things are progressing for you. Are you having any improvements with your trading? I hope things are going well.
Sorry for the late reply. WEll, I will continue to be honest, I blew my tiny account again.
I plan on just "toppping it up" with 50 to pass the margin requirements, and then trade using the setups that have proven to be successful for me. Yes, I do have an extensive trading journal.
After two consecutive losing trades>> I go back to trading for demo for the next week, and as soon as I bring my win ratio to 70%>> I go back to real live again. Do you guys think this is a good rule? I know most people have a similiar rule (three consectuve losses and back to demo). Right now my win/loss ratio is about 50/50 (thats being conservative)
I do start to panic before entering a trade in live, so I sort of play music and walk away from the terminal for the first few mins of the trade.
Its the waking up early mornings that is the real hard part of trading. but meh I gotta man up.
I need to work harder at my trading career. It would be an insult to everyone on this board if I quit.
I also do have aspirations to get funded in the future....still need to work out some kinks first. Perhaps I need a more definitive trading plan, perhaps exact rules to how to 1) ENTER a trade 2) where to place stops 3) EXIT a trade .
But I will take the advice of Winston Churchhill and "Never Give Up".
I read somewhere on this site, that before going (or going back) to live trading you should have at least a 70% win rate in demo.
So I want to have a really high win rate in demo (especially since live is almost always harder), especially with a smaller account I want minimize the chances/odds of losses.
Based on the back test my system looks good, but I need to focus on the mistaks listed in my 'Losing Trade Analysis" Journal.
Thank You for your concern.
How are things going for the panda? I hope you are being profitable in live trading.
I am also reading Mind over markets (recommended to me by DarkPool, I think it was).
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OK. But the question is "what does win rate have to do with anything"?
What would your answer be?
For the record, if the above is why you want your win rate to be high (to "minimize the chances of losses") then you need to seriously re-evaluate some things. You need to have a basic understanding of risk reward.
What @PandaWarrior was trying to make you think about was that win rate has very little to do with being a profitable trader. While some profitable traders may have high win rates, others have low win rates. Generally noobies/rookies are drawn to the high win rates but they give little to no consideration about the actual risk.
Risk is more or less the only thing that matters. Win rate is not the same as risk.
Well, I have a tiny account, and a few losses will burn it out (like I have done many times now), I want my win rate to improve so I have less losing trades, I know exactly where to place my stops based on the setup.
I'm focussing on being consistent> not have a bunch of small losers and one big winner.. > more like bunch of small winners and occaisionally some small(er) losers and occaisonally some big winners.
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You still aren't listening or understanding. I highly recommend you do specific research into this area to gain an understanding about risk/reward vs win rate. Win percentage is basically a worthless metric by itself, yet few rookie's ever ask more than "what is the win %?".
You asked, so--I think this is a terrible, horrible rule. Decrease your size when you're trading poorly, yes. Go back to demo after two consecutive losing trades? You are putting way too much pressure to be perfect with a rule like that. Two losing trades in a row is no biggie. Going back to demo just means you will trade with no consequence, with no emotion, with no fear of loss, and then you'll feel good and go back live, and repeat the cycle again.
This seems like an easy "out" -- you basically avoid responsibility if it's a losing trade by not being there. People have pretty different opinions on this one, but you really lose the opportunity to feel the market, and to use your own feelings to determine whether the trade is likely to work or not. Often the first few minutes are the most important because you get a good read on it, because real emotion is introduced for the first time. Learning to harness that intuition can be very powerful. If you run away from that instead, then you never give yourself the chance.
Boo hoo--if you are complaining about waking up early, it's no wonder the market is kicking the shit out of you.
I doubt it bud--you need to trade for YOU, and to make money. Screw people on this board. Learn from what others say, but nobody else gives a shit about your profit or loss, so figure out why you're trading. Is it for fun, entertainment, socialization, self-worth, or to fucking make money?
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Ok thanks , this is actually I useful post, when should I go back to demo? three consecutive trades?
OK this is a good point, what do you suggest I look for during the first few minutes?
You'r right I gotta man up (just in university all my classes were at night, so i was asleep whole day>> need to change my sleep schedule)
Listen, I am inexperiecend in trading, I come here to seek mentorship, I never give anyone advice....all my posts are in the spirit of improving as a trader.
The point that was being made by others is that the magnitude of winners and losers is ultimately more important than the number of them. If you have nine winners and make $1000, and then you blow up and lose $1000 in one trade, you can claim a 90% win rate but have made no money.
That all depends on factors related to how you trade--I would guess it would be something related to how you got into the trade in the first place.
@josh: the problem is the majority of new and existing bmt members, continue to enter the business with very little to no knowledge of the markets and then go on to make important decisions, that will inevitably determine their success, in an arbitrary or illogical manner. it’s like performing surgery without a knowledge of anatomy, or starting a business without a business plan. how do you expect do understand the market’s effects if you don’t understand the causes. how do you approach any market in a vacuum. there’s no concept or consideration of the themes or inter-market relationships that drive price. even in the markets’ most rudimentary sense, there’s equity (ownership), debt (credit), and cash(money) - es, zb, $/euro and gold. they’re like the earth, moon, and sun. you cannot ignore the relationships nor the flows of capital between them and expect to have an adequate understanding of how to trade the market. nor can you ignore the distortions caused by central bank policy, i.e. prolonged /qe-zirp and the trickle down effect it has on market metrics and benchmarks.
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Day trading is like driving a car. You must be quick to react to the developing conditions and know where the main intersections are. You don't need to understand what's going on under the hood to develop your driving skills.
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which is fine if you drive like an old lady- on her way to church-on sunday mornings, but if you want to drive formula one cars at the grand prix in monte carlo, you better know what you are doing. there's a huge difference between putting on few trades here and there, or breaking even, or simply being profitable, and being able to scale your trading and support yourself and your family. the problem with most new traders is they never come to grips with what it takes to be a consistently profitable trader or one that can grow his account on a compounded basis. they are too busy looking for shortcuts and excuses not-to-trade, or removing themselves from stressful events, rather than looking for or creating opportunities to make money. trading has evolved into much more than what you describe. it more of a thinking man's game - what do i have to do differently from the crowd, that will enable me to profit - what markets afford me the best opportunities to profit and how should i approach them. a one dimensional approach is not relevant to today's market because the market is distorted, manipulated, and constantly changing shape. however, you choose to trade it must be relevant, scalable and adaptable. but, you must first build a foundation of knowledge and understanding of how the markets REALLY function, not how they appear to work. this must be an integral part of your overall plan to accomplish your end game.
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Nevertheless, mfbreakout just posted something which i believe is so true:
If you are pounding you table and trying to rationalize as to why CL got sold right at the open yesterday and today right from 8.30 am got bought and pushed to 97.70- you may be trading something but it's not order flow.
Like Josh said, that is a horrible idea. The best idea right now, is to stop trading live. Period. You are destroying your mental capital.
And dude, get up early. This business is all about self-control and discipline, and waking up early should be an easy one. If you can't do that, you might as well quit now.
If you are still doing this a year 6-12 months from now, you are going to look back at this thread and laugh about things like "topping off my account with $50", and worrying about your win ratio.
You've got a ways to go. Perseverance and persistence will pay off, just keep at it. Again, quit trading live. Ever heard of TopStepTrader? Check them out.
Feel free to drop me a private message if you have any questions. I have been in your shoes, we all have.
Peace,
Chris
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Yeah I have heard of topstep, I read their website everyday and am a huge Danny Riley fan. However, I am not near the level ready to try out. It would be like a 12 year old who plays football in the park trying out for the Broncos. When I get better I will.
Feel so frustrated.....I understand ACD method, and the basics of tech analysis...not sure what is holding me back. Maybe I need to read more Mind over markets.
Would working at a prop firm help? (getting free training)
i know you're going to find this hard to believe, but there's actually traders out there who trade bigger than 3 lots and hold onto their trades for longer than 30 seconds to 3 minutes. trading order flow and scalping crude is all fine and dandy, but you are not going to be able to scale your trading to the point where you are trading size, and odds are you are not going to be holding your trades long enough to make any real money.
The following 4 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
Looks like this thread is going on 7 months plus...I suggest you stick with sim or paper trade until your really ready for this. Seeing a post you had a couple of days ago saying it would be a shame to quit only because of the support you've been getting around here tells me your heart is not in this at the moment. Not trying to be a jerk but, maybe save up some more money to more adequately fund your account while sim trading and after a period of time try it live if you feel confident enough.
@budfox, I want to give you some encouragement if you are struggling right now. This market is not easy to trade over the last few weeks in particular. Routine 20-30 handle ranges, lots of volume, and algo activity out the spoo's as--it's not for the faint of heart. Just look at today -- a 10 handle juke up and then 17 down after ISM to new lows, followed by a merciless squeeze up to new highs, where a breakout to the upside and a revisit to yesterday's highs was all but guaranteed, and then.... a sell into the close. Yesterday, a nice little headline algo-initiated sell on the S&P P.R. downgrade, with a move right back up, followed by another sell.
Can money be made? Yes, but particularly for a new trader it is brutal. With volatility comes massive opportunity, but also pitfalls and the ability to lose one's ass. You can lose 5 or more spoo futures handles before you can say "get me the fuck out" in this market, and trading the minimum that's $250, or a whopping 5% of your capital if you have a $5,000 account. Which is why such a small account trading futures, and no ability to size down, is such a death sentence. It sucks that this is the game we play, but we make the choice to play or not, and that's how it is.
The following 4 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
Glad to hear another person commenting on this. Im not sure about other markets, but January in the ES has been brutal. Any lack of discipline has no doubt decimated many an account. Wondering if this is the new normal? Would love to hear @tigertrader 's thoughts...
edit: Just one other thing, i've noticed a lack a liquidity lately generally requiring smaller positions and wider stops and targets. Not sure if anyone else agree's with this observation,...but im certainly hoping the liquidity returns soon.
edit: 40mins into US session,...speak of the devil, liquidity is back.
@DarkPoolTrading: the markets are always going to experience cyclical and secular modifications due to changing regimes/themes and because of the law of ever changing cycles. the markets are always going to go through structural changes due to technological innovation and regulatory influence. trying to predict what those changes will be in the future is a waste of time- even if you get it right, the odds are it was by chance. one thing you can count on however, is that the market will continue change, and inevitably the drift will be negative. that is, the market ALWAYS evolves and become more efficient, which inevitably means the market becomes more difficult to trade, especially for the retail participant. obviously, a trader must evolve and adapt his approach to current market conditions, or his his p&l will devolve. an inherent requisite of taking your trading to the next level, is the ability to recognize the game has changed, figure out what the game is, and how to adapt your trading to the game.
The following 7 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
@DarkPoolTrading:implied volatility has been trending down since its peak in 2009 making lower highs, as the market discounted each individual bout of volatility more quickly than the previous one. the market even reached a point where the attendant correlations associated with the risk /on-risk-off (roro) trade disappeared. however, china weakness, the taper, emerging market instability, and weak u.s. economic data, spiked volatility and spooked the markets. whether the present volatility turns out to be summarily dismissed (once again) remains to be seen. the factors and themes that drive the markets always change in some fundamental way (cyclical/secular) - the question is, have the markets themselves changed (structural). you pose an excellent and relevant question that has important implications for traders. we may be looking at a discontinuous structural change in the connection between geo-political events and market outcomes (and an entirely different market paradigm has begun to emerge), OR this could be a cyclical event, and the market sees a reversion back to the low volatility/ roro trade.
The following 4 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
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@budfox: no matter how you look at it, you have to learn before you earn. this pertains to any performance related endeavor. the structure of the learning process is of critical importance. most learning efforts fail because there are too few cycles of "performance-feedback-goal setting-corrective effort, for the time invested in the period of study, and no clear progression guiding the content of those cycles. there has to be a structured process of expertise development to guide one from the novice stage, to competency, and on to expertise, which includes market knowledge, mental and emotional preparation, methodology, and money management. and, it must be relevant to the current trading environment- not yesterday’s.
this forum operates on some level where useful information is transferred from the knowledgeable to the uninitiated, but all too often it functions more like a support group. people believe what they want to believe, see what they want to see, and hear what they want to hear. they tend to avoid information that contradicts what they already think or believe, tend to seek out other like-minded people, and rarely venture out from their comfort zone. this herding behavior is evident in the collective participation in individualized threads and its participants' dogmatic adherence to it's precepts. a cult-like phenomena fosters a "follower mentality" that inhibits one from reaching reasoned conclusions based on a reasoned process, and from having an "open mind". it only serves to reinforce a self-limiting behavior and a parochial view, that is not much different than the one-sided, collective sentiment of market participants.
the result is that 80% of the ideas that are freely exchanged on this site are invalid. they are misguided, anachronistic, simplistic, irrelevant and often just plain wrong. the dilemma is, how does one separate the wheat from the chaff. logic would dictate, and it is confirmed from my personal experience, that the best place to seek knowledge is from someone who is extremely knowledgeable and experienced. so for starters, i would question the quality of the sources of the advice you are seeking, and look to those individuals who have already, successfully accomplished what you seek to achieve.
even after +40 years trading professionally, i still seek to improve my trading, through the acquisition of market and trading knowledge, especially in the areas where i feel i am ignorant. i accomplish this by exposing myself to people that are even more experienced and more knowledgeable than myself, experts-in-the-field, if you will. at the same time, i continue to be a student of the markets and trading. it is no different than being a doctor, lawyer, or accountant; knowledge quickly becomes obsolete and must be kept up-to-date, so i strive to read all the topical and relevant material i can find. the problem is you can never know the accuracy of the information you receive, nor the motivation of the provider. behind any source, may hide self-interests, ignorance, or bias. the value of any piece of information you read or listen to, must be questioned, and the noise must be filtered out. this an acquired skill unto itself, (like being a good researcher) that come with experience, and trial-and-error.
i realize this is very theoretical sounding and not very practical in nature, but it is not without its reason. learn to think critically(on your own) and don't be a follower. the way you choose to learn and acquire expertise in trading is as important as the actual process. so, give it careful thought and approach it logically - develop a plan and then execute the plan. forget about popular opinion and don't take anything at face value. organize and filter your ideas and determine what is relevant, but allow conflicting ideas to generate new conclusions. keep in mind, that in theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is.
The following 13 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
...people believe what they want to believe, see what they want to see, and hear what they want to hear. they tend to avoid information that contradicts what they already think or believe, they tend to seek out other like-minded people, and rarely venture out from their comfort zone. all this serves to accomplish is to reinforce a self-limiting behavior....
Absolutely right, tiger, people are very defensive about what they believe and won't allow any information that contradicts...
The following user says Thank You to supermht for this post:
@supermht: researchers found that people are about twice as likely to select information that supports their own point of view (67 percent) as to consider an opposing idea (33 percent) and 3 times as reluctant to consider differing perspective when it pertains to politics and religion. one could only imagine what the percentage is when it comes to money and trading!
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
Thank you for taking the time to respond to my post, the reason I asked you is that you seem to be extremely experienced and skillful. I love reading your posts, they are very entertaining.
I am definitely willing to learn before I earn, the issue is what should I learn? What is the grade one material? the grade two material? There really is no structure to learning how to trade. I think a lot of the problem with novice traders is that they dont know where to turn for education of the markets, ie. should they learn ACD, market profile, etc.
I think its harder to become a trader than a doctor, or lawyer; If you want to become a doctor or lawyer you go to med/law school and they train you the skills to become a successful doctor/lawyer. There are highly experienced doctors/lawyers who can guide you.
There are no (or very few) credible (credible = not a scammer) formal academic instituitions that can effectively train traders. The only ones I can think of is Topsteptrader and Anton Kreil.
So this is the main issue I am having, knowing what are the next steps to improving as a trader. Learning how to trade from browsing google is informative, but not always effective.
I am currently in the middle of listening to the embedded webinar and it is fantastic. If the other ones linked below are it are only half as good...it will be an incredibly fruitful investment of my time.
No more 
