Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
Posts: 49,360 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,046 given,
96,617
received
Hi guys,
It is my pleasure to welcome Morad Askar (aka FuturesTrader71) for a special webinar as part of our 4-year anniversary on futures.io (formerly BMT). The webinar will be on Tuesday, June 11th @ 4:30 PM Eastern US.
Topics include:
- Key distinctions for professional traders
- Using basic instrument data to form a general expectation
- Defining an assumption and verifying it through statistics
- Statistical Behavioral Expectation
- Entire process using an example
- How to trade using this information
As part of our special 4-year anniversary, we will be giving away (10) autographed copies of a book that FT71 selected which is "The Power of Habit" by Charles Duhigg during the webinar. These will be given away during the live presentation.
In just a few days, on June 10th, Big Mike Trading will turn 4 years old!
:partywave:
I am extremely proud of the community and everything that we've worked so hard to accomplish together. To say thanks to everyone for a fantastic 4-years, I have …
Below are the results of the last poll where I asked which broker and data feed you used. I hope I didn't forget to list any, because I did forget to list the "Other" option after the poll crashed the first time I set it up!
It was fantastic as expected from Morad. I am twitching to fire up excel and try out many different hypotheses.
P.S.: As a scalper I had the answer to the last question typed in and ready to be pasted into GotoWebinar (like everybody else I had figured out that since Morad had hinted in the live webinar that "What is an edge?" will be one of the quiz questions - I guess I should have pasted it earlier :-) before the question was even asked!
Darn, there goes my Microsoft Certified Copy Paste Engineer title.
The following user says Thank You to iqgod for this post:
Just finished the recording and as always there was lots of great stuff to be learnt from FT71.
One thing that I think is important to keep in mind, which FT71 highlighted, is the importance of gathering YOUR OWN stats and proving or disproving edges for yourself. Dont just take someone else's stats as gospel and trade based on it.
If someone tells you that X has a 70% probability of happening. How did they get to that conclusion? What is their sample size? What time frame was the analysis performed on? etc...
Diversification is the only free lunch
The following 2 users say Thank You to DarkPoolTrading for this post:
I was only able to catch the first hour or so before my phone died so I need to watch the remainder of the webinar, but I thought it was great. He showed that if you have the right data feed, a little Excel formula knowledge, and a beginner's knowledge of stats you can put together a helpful study without making it your life's work. I appreciated his candor here about what constitutes a statistical edge and what does not.
I suspect a lot of people over-engineer this stuff and put too much focus on it in an attempt to subconsciously avoid actual trading. As Einstein said, make things as simple as possible, but no simpler.
As always, thanks to FT and Big Mike for this one.
The following user says Thank You to Auric for this post:
Thanks to FT for his excellent webinar. If you want to dig deeper into the power of excel then i can recommend you 3 books, which have satisfied all of my needs. I make all of my analysis in excel and it's really worthwhile to learn all of the tricks to visualize your data efficiently. Your trading plattform will never give you these level of freedom.
I've converted the indicator ExportChartData to a Strategy to make it easier to apply against a basket of instruments. Thanks to BigMike and Sam for some older comments and code that inspired this :).
Next releases will include enums to select various …
This is an NT7 indicator used to write timestamped OHLC and volume data from the open chart to a text file for analysis outside of NT (Excel, Matlab, R, etc). It gives you the option to use different characters for delimiting files, as well as the option …
Definitely not as easy as IRT but it will do the job with some basic knowledge of NinjaScript.
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
Posts: 49,360 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,046 given,
96,617
received
I have sent the info to @FuturesTrader71 for all the book winners. He will autograph and mail out. I would expect the process to take approximately 2-3 weeks.
I enjoyed watching FT's webinar as I was involved in research using excel and "R" about 5 years ago.
We were studying a certain phenomena (13 years of data) and have indeed proved that it occurs 63%-67% of the time.
A few things for future "quants" ...
1. Depending of what time frame and how refined you want your data - make sure it's CLEAN!!! You can find your self spending numerous hours cleaning data! We saw a major discrepancy between various data providers especially when it comes to TICK data. This thing alone can SKEW your whole research!!!
2. Excel will eventually crash when you get to "Big Data" / Large data sets - now you are going to need major databases - and maybe even think of non RDBMS ones.
3. As FT said - at a certain point - you realize you can spend your whole life in research and not trading
4. Indeed per FT's comment - having a 67% or event 80%+ probability on your side does NOT mean you are going to be consistent! R:R , expectancy etc are Major things to consider ...we used to call it the "HEAT FACTOR" ...how much heat are you willing to endure until your statistical edge shows its face
5. Once you throw AI and machine learning into the mix - well....that brings challenges of its own....the major issue is "What Questions Do You Ask the Machine" - in retrospect - its more important to define the questions then the data itself (Im exaggerating off course )
This kind of reminds of the movie/book "Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy" ...if my memory serves me right - they build a super computer and wait centuries for an answer about what is life - and then get some NUMBER - BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN ?
This is not meant to take the wind out of anyone sails - just to put some perspective on all things statistical.
Sagi (Steven)
The following 3 users say Thank You to ziggy123 for this post:
haha...you caused me to google the number and the title...found some interesting data - see below.
Also, correction to my original post : "One would find himself spending numerous Weeks (not hours) cleaning data"
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Being Jewish - I found the Judaism explanations intriguing ...
In Japanese culture, the number 42 is considered unlucky because the numerals when pronounced separately — "shi ni" (four two) — sound like the phrase, "unto death".[12]
There are 42 principles of Ma'at, the Ancient Egyptian personification of physical and moral law, order, and truth. In the judgement scene described in the Egyptian and the Book of the Coming/Going Forth by Day (the Book of the Dead (which evolved from the Coffin Texts and the Pyramid Texts)), there are 42 gods and goddesses of Egypt, personifying the principles of Ma'at. These 42 correspond to the 42 Nomes (Governmental Units) of Egypt. If the departed successfully answers all 42, s/he becomes an Osiris.
42 is the number with which God creates the Universe in Kabbalistic tradition. In Kabbalah, the most significant name is that of the En Sof (also known as "Ein Sof", "Infinite" or "Endless"), who is above the Sefirot (sometimes spelled "Sephirot").[13] The Forty-Two-Lettered Name contains four combined names which are spelled in Hebrew letters (spelled in letters = 42 letters), which is the name of Azilut (or "Atziluth" "Emanation"). While there are obvious links between the Forty-Two Lettered Name of the Babylonian Talmud and the Kabbalah's Forty-Two Lettered Name, they are probably not identical because of the Kabbalah's emphasis on numbers. The Kabbalah also contains a Forty-Five Lettered Name and a Seventy-Two Lettered Name.
The number 42 appears in various contexts in Christianity. There are 42 generations (names) in the Gospel of Matthew's version of the Genealogy of Jesus; it is prophesied that for 42 months the Beast will hold dominion over the Earth (Revelation 13:5); 42 men of Beth-azmaveth were counted in the census of men of Israel upon return from exile (Ezra 2:24); God sent bears to maul 42 of the teenage boys who mocked Elisha for his baldness (2 Kings 2:23), etc.
In Judaism, the number (in the Babylonian Talmud, compiled 375 AD to 499 AD) of the "Forty-Two Lettered Name" ascribed to God. Rab (or Rabhs), a 3rd-century source in the Talmud stated "The Forty-Two Lettered Name is entrusted only to him who is pious, meek, middle-aged, free from bad temper, sober, and not insistent on his rights". [Source: Talmud Kidduschin
Very informative to see broadly how Morad trades. You can definitely see the formal training process coming through in his approach. I like his style of charging a decent fee for the key content but having the fee paid to charity. Nice touch.
Just watched the webinar. I like these ideas not for trade ideas but more understanding market tendencies and then using price to find the trade. Also, as per LBR, studying what happens when the unexpected happens i.e. the market breaking both the overnight high and low, is a worthwhile endeavor. A few questions:
What excel executions did you preform during this webinar? I noticed binning, counting, and a histogram. Anything else?
If you were to do 80/20 breakdown what 20% of excel topics should I learn and master that would give me the best ROI on my time?
If you were to start out at this would you learn excel or R?
