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Non farm payroll traders here?
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Non farm payroll traders here?

  #1 (permalink)
nottingham england
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Platform: igindex
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Posts: 1 since May 2013
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Non farm payroll traders here?

Anyone trade the non farm payroll every month?

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
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GaryD's Avatar
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011
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Yes, and no.

Yes - For the most part, we probably all trade the report, inadvertently, just because the market reacts to it.

No - You will probably find that many traders do not care what the report says. Personally, I prefer not to know anything about most reports, because it tends to create bias. And bias does not allow us to trade the market as purely.

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  #4 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
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Silvester17's Avatar
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I think what he means is to actually "trade" the report. to enter as fast as possible after the release.

a few things that are essential:

- know what the market has positioned itself before the release (knowing what the market wants to see)

- having a fast news feed like reuters, bloomberg etc

as it can be very rewarding in a short amount of time, it's also worth knowing what the other "job" numbers are (unemployment rate, private nonfarm payroll, average hourly earnings). and of course there're the revisions from the previous month that can have an impact.

a huge plus would be if the news would leak to you a few minutes before the release.

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  #5 (permalink)
London UK
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xplorer's Avatar
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My 2 cents: I think trading the NFP as soon as the figures are released can be very tricky.

Firstly I'd address the question of what product to trade, given that different products react to the release in different ways.

For example, it seems usually problematic (or has been for the past couple of years) to trade indexes such as SP500 because of the interpretation of bad/good data that people attribute to NFP release, i.e. job numbers are good so some people may think that the Fed may increase interest rates and that prompts them to sell.

The products I have seen to respond in a more linear way to NFP are usually EURUSD and T-notes (10 year). Because of algos, though, attempting to enter the market as soon as the figures are released usually gets me to buy right at the top or sell at the bottom.

What has worked for me is to get onto a retracement which usually prompts for a continuation in the original direction of the spike.

Of course that approach wouldn't have worked in the last three releases including today , even though today we had mixed data: lower than expected headline figure but better than expected unemployment %.

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  #6 (permalink)
London UK
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xplorer's Avatar
Posts: 4,713 since Sep 2015
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Just trying to make sense of your comment Marc, you say you want to go in the opposite direction as GaryD's but then just copied his comment?

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  #7 (permalink)
Brisbane, Australia
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
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Posts: 95 since Mar 2018
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Yeah I'm looking into swing trading the non farm payroll, there is the actual report release and then there is the forecasted figures, anyone know much about where they source the forecasted figures and/or are there are multiple forecasts from various groups i.e. Bloomberg, Reuters etc?

Any links would be handy also if anyone knows some good sites, the first page of google does not always satisfy.

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  #8 (permalink)
São Paulo, Brasil
Trading Experience: None
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
Posts: 8 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 4 received

Revan, i have tried to forecast NFP... Do you think it´s possible?

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