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Your edge vs recent market behavior


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Your edge vs recent market behavior

  #1 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
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New poll. Please vote and discuss.

How has your edge been impacted by recent market behavior?

Total votes: 109
 


The topic is simply -- how has your edge been impacted vs the recent market changes?

Mike

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  #3 (permalink)
 
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 Big Mike 
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I am leaving the term "recent" as subjective and up to your interpretation.

Mike

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  #4 (permalink)
karoshiman
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Very interesting topic! You should post this poll every few months.

I personally cannot answer this question as I have changed my style a bit by the end of March and we are in the same environment since (with my definition of "recent" - for me, from early January 2013 until today is all the same environment). I just see that my adjusted trading style works quite well in this market, but I'm aware that this can change rapidly, when the environment changes.

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  #5 (permalink)
 
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 Massive l 
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Dramatically. Being a range trader, /ES wasn't treating me too well when it started breaking every range I had.
I had to start looking at other instruments again like Grains and Currencies.

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  #6 (permalink)
 
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 Daytrader999 
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Well, that's no major issue for me. Most often it's no big deal to find a decent trending market on any particular day.

And if the markets completely refuse to cooperate I practice sitting on my hands and do something else more or less useful.
So, IMHO there's really no need to force trades every single day if the markets lack any structure and only chop around...

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  #7 (permalink)
 
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 NJAMC 
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No issues on my end, my original discretionary performance "Drew a vacuum" and my current discretionary performance also "draws a vacuum".

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-NJAMC [Generic Programmer]

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  #8 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
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Revising this poll, new one below:

How has your edge been impacted by recent market behavior?

Total votes: 87
 


Please vote and discuss.

Mike

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  #9 (permalink)
NoiseTrader716
Buffalo, NY
 
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I really don't think in terms of edge anymore. Implicit in saying you have a 3% edge is a repeated trials process that we know doesn't make sense. We know that 10:00am will be different than 10:36am. Really, each tick is practically different. A house casino can have a 3% edge against the gambler exactly because the rules of the game are fixed so you can run repeated trials of the same thing.

If you can only take one sample before things change then saying you have a 3% edge is your degree of belief. It isn't reasonable though to believe you can quantify things to that degree of accuracy. Not only might you be overvaluing your bad bets but really undervaluing your best bets.

I try to think in terms of sharpe ratio components on a continuous portfolio that is also used to fund the rare go for the jugular trade.

So current market I would go with fed funds that risk free rate is going up, because of that expected returns going down some and preparing for various std deviations in returns. No real go for the jugular trades at the moment.

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  #10 (permalink)
 
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 Yuri57 
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First can you tell us what you mean by: "recent market behavior" ?

What exactly do you think has changed?

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