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The Secret Science of Price and Volume by Timothy Ord: Book Discussion.
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The Secret Science of Price and Volume by Timothy Ord: Book Discussion.

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 R.I.P. 1960-2010 
 
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The Secret Science of Price and Volume by Timothy Ord: Book Discussion.

Saw the title, then when the Preface mentioned Stan Weinstein & Joe Granville I knew this book was for me.


Timothy Ord is an accomplished Trader and Newsletter Publisher – The Ord Oracle (www.ord-oracle.com). He is frequently listed as one of the top ten market timers. He introduced the tick index method in 1991 and recently began to market Ord Volume which measures the strength of a price move. Ord is a technician, not a fundamental analyst, and started when technical analysis was done before powerful applications like TradeStation and NinjaTrader, etc. were economically feasible for the independent trader.


Have always considered myself a price & volume trader. But it was not until I joined this forum that I was able to convert my ideas into indicators to visualize what I was trying to keep in my head. I met Zondor in the Forum and an entire suit of persistent, volume, trade-size, and depth of market (DOM) based indicators resulted and development work continues...


But I know that my trading results still need improvement. Additionally, believe that understanding of the use of Price and Volume could benefit from discussion with other traders. If anyone is interested I will be reading one to a few chapter each week and posting on this thread.

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I have also read this book. The reading of a chart cannot be done properly without some knowlegde of volume. I believe Ord makes it a little more of difficult subject than it needs to be. I am looking forward to this new thread. It will make a good dicussion.

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Volume is the key

So after reading the first few chapters of The Secret Science... I realized I was on to something using Volume-based charts for shorter time frames and range or time for longer time frames with volume shown below. Larger range bars show less resistance to movement, for short duration trading this is what make the most $/time. However, when looking at long trades, then the volume trends become important. This is why some of the best moves start with a large movement early on, and the risk to enter is higher. as there is no real close support.

Next Ord talks about the McClellan Occillator & Sumation Index for market momentum. This is an indicator I used to use when using William O'Neil's method descriped in How to Make Money in Stocks to try to determine if I should look for buys or shorts, based on overall market direction.

This is how it can be applied to Equity Index futures, like the Dow & S&P, etc.

Later this week will read the wind at your back chapter.

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Wind At your Back

Ord discussed his three step process for finding market direction: Breath analysis, volume analysis and momentum.


The goal for the week is to see if the McClellan Oscillator will help in determining market direction. Currently it has been rising since the early Feb bottom. But we are at a critical juncture and area of resistance. If the ES can advance through 1108 then Long trades are favored. This method does not lend itself to some of the other instruments I follow: 6E, CL, GC, but could be calculated for the FDAX and NQ.

Volume analysis is easier. If the volume trend is with the market then volume is on your side. Will watch this week to see if the uptrend continues with increasing volume.

Finally Momentum. I will used the d9 particle oscillator as a surrogate momentum indicator.

The rest of the book, while interesting, is part sales pitch & part sector and stock analysis.

So, I've gleaned what I wanted from this book and will concentrate on Price movement, Volume, & Momentum.

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I agree with your view of the book. I also think you will find this method pretty good for swing trades of a month or longer. I t will not work nearly as well on any day trading.

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Keep this in mind: Ord shorted the S&P 500 a long time ago and last time I checked he was still short. He held his short through half of the bull market. Makes me suspicious.

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Trading vs Investing

He's not a trader. He's an investor.

If He actually followed his guidelines then the buy was when the McClellen Ocs turned up after the sell off. I use the d9 as a surrogate for the McClellen. As can be seen the d9 made a higher low with the push down to 1040.75 and has been moving up steadly since. Now the ES is really close to the upper channel and I would expect a consolidation or weakening waves as the previous high is approached. Day trading the ES is tough as the biggest % moves have been after the normal hours. I kinda like trading at that time as the DOM is light allowing for bigger moves.

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This site computed his return for a given period, it was -5% while the market was +7%.

CXOAG Guru Grades – Tim Ord's Intermediate-Term Market Calls

I try to see if he's still short but his blog is no longer available. If anyone knows how to see his calls without subscribing to his newsletter let me know. It's important for me to know when he covers because that's when I'm going to go short.

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I use the d9 as a surrogate for the McClellen.

How can you use the d9 as a surrogate for the McClellan? That's like me using the temperature as a surrogate for my clock.

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