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Will The Fed raise interest rates in 2013?
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Will The Fed raise interest rates in 2013?

  #1 (permalink)
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Will The Fed raise interest rates in 2013?

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  #3 (permalink)
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Low interest rates devalues the currency. Gives them reason to print and acquire all the valued assets, control governments and introduce a global currency, which everyone will be begging for.
Control by chaos and rule by debt.
The interest rates they set only imply what they pay us for our capital, but not what we pay to use their printed funny money. Lotto ticket odds against us.

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  #4 (permalink)
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So far the poll shows most people saying no interest rate hike this year.

If that is true, then we should blow ES 1600 and DOW 15,000 out of the water. All that printed money has to go somewhere...

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  #5 (permalink)
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As far as I know there is really no one that talks about raising interest rates this year. The Fed had previously stated it would keep rates as exceptionally low to mid-2015. Below is FOMC participant projections on tightening timelines. Basically there is pretty much zero chance of raising rates this year.

Maybe this question was meant to be about ending quantitative easing?

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  #6 (permalink)
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Fed has been even more clear on QE, saying it will continue until the end of days...

We all know the situation the fed has painted themselves into. Even a slight interest rate bump is going to send shockwaves...

They've said rates will remain at 0.25% until inflation hits 2.5%. We've been at 0.25% since Dec 2008. Historically since 1971 rates have average 6%, so there is an enormous gap here and every knows rates must increase, and everyone knows The Fed has printed so much that it is going to get real messy real fast.

I know The Fed likes to reassure everyone the rates will remain free and QE will continue until the end of days, but in reality it will one day revert and I'm no economist but it seems rates will need to go much higher than the average 6% in order to keep up with inflation. I want to be short indices ahead of those FOMC minutes...

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A rate increase from 0.25 to 0.50, then 1% by end of 2013 I would say is at least 50% chance of happening. And I think even that tiny bump will send shockwaves and could signal a top in equity markets.

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Mike,

Here is Fed related Q&A from Goldman Sachs. Asset purchases are expected to end first. If there was any drama at the last several meetings it was about signaling the end of QE.

There really is no chance of a rate hike this year.



Via Goldman Sachs,

Q: Will the FOMC announce major policy changes?

A: No, we do not expect any policy change at the March 19-20 FOMC meeting. Although the economic outlook has improved a bit since the January 30 meeting, we expect the Fed's asset purchases to continue until 2014Q3 and do not project the first rate hike until early 2016. We therefore think it is too early to signal any changes to Fed policy.

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  #9 (permalink)
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Jolew View Post
Mike,

Here is Fed related Q&A from Goldman Sachs. Asset purchases are expected to end first. If there was any drama at the last several meetings it was about signaling the end of QE.

There really is no chance of a rate hike this year.



Via Goldman Sachs,

Q: Will the FOMC announce major policy changes?

A: No, we do not expect any policy change at the March 19-20 FOMC meeting. Although the economic outlook has improved a bit since the January 30 meeting, we expect the Fed's asset purchases to continue until 2014Q3 and do not project the first rate hike until early 2016. We therefore think it is too early to signal any changes to Fed policy.

What is the historical accuracy of this? Meaning historically does the Fed always do what they say in their minutes from prior meetings? Is Goldman always right?

I don't often read the minutes. I should, but who has the time...

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Poll closed, results:

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Mike

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