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Is it all mostly about chart patterns
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Is it all mostly about chart patterns

  #61 (permalink)
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kwak76 View Post
Hello,

I'm very new at trading. In fact so new that I'm about to join a trading company but I have to give a contribution. The reason being is because I feel like I need someone to hold my hands in the learning curve.


Anyway, I been doing simulation and realize is it all about chart patterns when it comes to picking. I read about volume and open interest but it's all about charting . Wondering if people just rely on chart patterns ? And I think that the only way to really understand chart patterns is to look at it for hours and hours.

Make a contribution? You will be doing that enough already being new and using just one method. What I can tell you is become an expert in one instrument. Know what is does over years and years of data. Find out the likelihood of different things happening. For example over the last 6, 4 or 2 years find out how often your instrument tags yesterday's high or low. If you find it's only 20% of the time forget about it an move on but just keep it in the back of your mind. But, if you find out through your research that it's 68% of the time now there is a way to make money. Once you are an expert in your chosen product you will see your chart patterns and have a good idea of what they mean. In the mine that is your instrument there are many gems. Can you find them?

Take care

Ronald J Cutaia Jr

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  #62 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
... ... I do tend to avoid trading double tops because everyone else is doing the same thing. On the other hand, I do like the market to pierce the overnight high and find nothing up there for a trade back to the opposite end of the range... ...

My HFT sim program, if I had one, is watching those levels too. Have learnt to wait for HFTs/elephants to create a false breakout above a DT or overnight high (below DB/OLow), take out stops of 'everyone elses' premature shorts (longs), and then take the market down/up. Yeah, sometimes it will actually go down/up without such a trap but always better to be patient and wait on traps.

Just a thought.

Richard
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  #63 (permalink)
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What do ascending triangles look like again? Can they break either way? Is this SILVER TA?

What's going on now???

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  #64 (permalink)
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whatnext View Post
What's going on now???

Continuation of down channel, but likely reversal back to top of down channel.

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  #65 (permalink)
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whatnext View Post
Whoa check out my homie Big Mike repping three line bounces in conjunction with bollinger bands - gangsta :-)

I feel like we are going to see a big move after this ascending triangle breaks one way or the other - $8 in under a month easy.

Have been "scalping" on 120 and 20 min charts - not so gangsta.

No all I did was take your chart and draw a channel on it

Sent from my Nexus 4

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  #66 (permalink)
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whatnext View Post
Thanks... Epic... So glad I reached out... Maybe once I cant pick winners anymore ill peddle junk on your site and get my ego stroked.

??

I think there is some miscommunication somewhere.

Mike

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  #67 (permalink)
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I'm an angry drunk , misinterpretation was on this end apparently

I think this patten will break hard was the point. I don't know which way (thinking down) but should be an easy 3,4,5+ to 1 r2r. (Chart is SI 240m)

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  #68 (permalink)
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I think there is potential for Silver to trade higher to the top of the channel and beyond. The chart explains why I think that. Time will tell.

D
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  #69 (permalink)
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Timot View Post
Interesting thread. I found the explanation in this blog about the causes of decreasing effectiveness of chart patterns but also of a good part of TA convincing. The explanation was based on the declining auto-correlation of prices

There's too much unpredictability for there to be a way to discern the "effectiveness" of one method over a different method. Regardless of which approach you choose, there's a super-thin fine line between having an edge and not having an edge. You're talking about something that was mathematically shown is unpredictable: the price of an asset cannot be predicted.

Some people take that to mean that markets cannot be beat.

A few folks, like myself, say that price doesn't matter as long as you can establish probabilities of price areas. When I trade, I operate under the assumption that the price behavior sometimes indicates that a certain range of prices is more likely to occur than a different range in the opposite direction.

This involves support, resistance, and volatility, so historical data (charts) are useful in showing where those areas are. But price defies congestion zones just as frequently as it defies any other attempts to predict it, so those type of things are only guidelines in your attempt to identify probabilities.

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  #70 (permalink)
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LOL

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