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Is it all mostly about chart patterns
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Is it all mostly about chart patterns

  #41 (permalink)
Elite Member
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In a broad sense its all about patterns

Heres my thoughts. I take a view like @bnichols

Having an edge in the market involves understanding some sort of pattern. Consider these examples
  • Volume spread analysis
  • Harmonics
  • Session to session differences of things like the open, value area, pivots...
  • Elliot wave
  • Fib levels and knowing how to trade them
  • Repeating patterns on the DOM like stacking one side while building a position the other way
  • Swing/wave analysis
  • Higher Highs and Lower Lows
  • Candlestick and bar analysis

Patterns can be searched for in different time frames. So I believe an edge develops out of a pattern a person recognises. Of course the pattern needs some form of reliability to trade - eg high win % or when you do win a high profit potential.

How do you trade a pattern - maybe there is more to be made inside the pattern considering the market is ranged most of the time. Play the boundaries. How do you manage risk when entering and exiting a pattern.

So for me - what patterns are reliable? What patterns have a good chance or success? What patterns can be traded with low risk and high reward? How do you trade them?

I am still searching to be honest. But I know that, for me at least, the way forward is to become an observer of the markets. I need to find patterns that I believe in and understand how I will trade them.

@Bigmike the point on context is huge. Understanding patterns and trading them is most effective by observing the context (announcement times, sentiment, prior market behaviour, unfolding world news, sessions times and volume actvity for a possible pattern).

Correct me if I am wrong but trading with an edge is all about some form of pattern - otherwise the market is just chaos and its a gamble. I also believe the patterns that are worth looking at take time to observe and understand before trading them. I am still looking.

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  #42 (permalink)
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Disciple View Post
Correct me if I am wrong but trading with an edge is all about some form of pattern - otherwise the market is just chaos and its a gamble.

Yes, I think that is pretty well established. This thread, however, is titled "Is it all mostly about chart patterns" ; I think the assumption when we say "chart patterns" is H&S, rounded saucer, double top, twisted sisters, and all those other "chart patterns." Regarding these, I think many have expressed their opinion that "no, it is not mostly about chart patterns" but I think all would have to agree that patterns of some kind are necessary to recognize in order to have a quantifiable edge in trading financial markets.

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  #43 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Yes, I think that is pretty well established. This thread, however, is titled "Is it all mostly about chart patterns" ; I think the assumption when we say "chart patterns" is H&S, rounded saucer, double top, twisted sisters, and all those other "chart patterns." Regarding these, I think many have expressed their opinion that "no, it is not mostly about chart patterns" but I think all would have to agree that patterns of some kind are necessary to recognize in order to have a quantifiable edge in trading financial markets.

Josh,

Have you ever traded the twisted sisters pattern?

D

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  #44 (permalink)
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David_R View Post
Josh,

Have you ever traded the twisted sisters pattern?

I could have sworn there is a chart pattern with that name but maybe not

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  #45 (permalink)
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Mostly about chart patterns - no


josh View Post
I think the assumption when we say "chart patterns" is H&S, rounded saucer, double top, twisted sisters, and all those other "chart patterns." Regarding these, I think many have expressed their opinion that "no, it is not mostly about chart patterns" but I think all would have to agree that patterns of some kind are necessary to recognize in order to have a quantifiable edge in trading financial markets.

Thanks Josh - I find this an interesting topic (patterns in the market - relfected on charts or not).

Is there any research into harmonic patterns and their reliability that anyone is aware of?

I have never heard of a twisted sister either - not in a trading sense anyways.

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  #46 (permalink)
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Here is something on the triangle pattern forming now in the ES.
From theory to reality
https://futures.io/trading-journals/7984-trading-41.html#post301291

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #47 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Here is the table of contents from a book on chart patterns to help with the definition.
As you can see both commonly known and used patterns such as double tops and less commonly known/used patterns such as pennants are included.

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Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #48 (permalink)
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Suris top ten patterns - 2008 presentation

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  #49 (permalink)
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  #50 (permalink)
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Sorry Mike...


I will start marking posts with one of those little smiley things. Is there one for tongue in cheek?

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