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how many bars is a signal worth?
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how many bars is a signal worth?

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
New York NY USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: esignal, ninjatrader,
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 110 since Oct 2012
Thanks: 54 given, 29 received

how many bars is a signal worth?

I could use a good rule of thumb from more experienced traders. Something like "until I hit my target or the market clearly reverses against me, I will hold my positions at least X bars.
My short of the ES from 1455 at 10:55 this morning was a pretty good trade. I should have pocketed at least 3 points. But I did not, I only made 1/2 a point.

Why? Because I am not waiting for my signals to pan out. There were plenty of signals for that trade. But then I watch the candles moving up and down. I am up a little. I am down a little. Maybe its reversing? Some signals look a little weaker. Should have closed when I was up a point. It came back in my direction. Good lets take the profit.

Then it just rides along, as I had predicted. As my signals said that it would. But I am out and annoyed with myself.

So I ask you experienced traders, How long should I stay with my signals before I figure they are no longer valid?

Thanks

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  #3 (permalink)
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Chicago Illinois USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: duh hammer!
 
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Your first two...


statements are all you will ever need on that topic. Granted that is much easier stared than demonstrated. I use a tertiary target mechanism that in theory would leave the last "unit" in place until an aggressive late triggered trailer is hit or until I get an entry signal the other way.

On Risk...again easy in theory but not so much in application. I use a defined hard stop based on recent short term high/low or I exit as soon as any supporting premis for entry is no longer valid.

DB

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