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Who makes more money. Scalpers or Point Traders
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Who makes more money. Scalpers or Point Traders

  #61 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
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Big Mike View Post
Slightly off-topic, but @monpere, since we all know you have a mostly perfect automated trading system, why aren't you trading 100 lots or more per? Why haven't you opened a multi-billion dollar hedge fund? I mean just go in the code, and change the number of contracts and add a few zeros at the end.... Why not trade 100's of products simultaneously?



Mike

I would guess monpere's system can only work for him if he stays in the same position as the little bird on this picture. But what about you Mike, you seem to be doing extremely well, why not trade 100 lots or more on the ES?.

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  #62 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I would guess monpere's system can only work for him if he stays in the same position as the little bird on this picture. But what about you Mike, you seem to be doing extremely well, why not trade 100 lots or more on the ES?.

Answer is simple for me. I'm only human (not an automated bot), and emotions take over. I've significantly increased my size over the years, but am not trading 100 lots

I am on schedule to retire in a couple years. My goal is slow and steady, and then I will achieve that soon. But sine @monpere is mostly automated, it seems like he should just add a few zeros so he can take over the world by the end of the year. Or hire a team of monkeys to hit the buttons for him.



Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
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  #63 (permalink)
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arnie View Post
The optimum way would be looking at your higher time frame to spot you areas of interest, then go to your smaller time frame to pin point your entry and then go back to your higher time frame to follow prices into your designated areas of interest, again.

The problem is that when we go to our lower time frame we tend to stay there. The higher time frame is no longer needed (considered).

You are correct, and that is the plan on swing trades. But I just got used to trading off my small frame

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  #64 (permalink)
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I wish I could understand Monpere's chart. I really like the ideas he uses but could never achieve much success with non-time based charts. From my understand he's spent a long time on his system with filters on divergences


Last edited by Itchymoku; October 20th, 2012 at 07:58 PM.
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  #65 (permalink)
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@djkiwi

You said something very important in your last post, How experienced traders should word things appropriately so beginners dont think awww this is easy, I can do that and I'll be RICH. But then again we dont know who experienced and who's not(other than that little tag beside our name) till more info becomes available about the said trader. I listen when you reply now that I know you have 25 yrs trading exp. I tip my hat to you,well done. This is whats so hard about trading getting the important CORE data, most on here dont know any size traders IMO And just because they read a well written comment they assume this trader is successful and should listen to him/her. Not going keep on going but everyone gets my point.

@Big Mike

At 32 and being able to retire early in life, I commend you.

I went to visit a old friend of mine today,he wanted to show me some of his new toys one is going to be at the next SEMA. But it was a great day, he trades a few Hold positions throughout the year. We spoke about business and how the majority doesnt get the core principals needed to efficiently operate a business. The key reason I went into to trading eliminate work force, which eliminates the mistakes that masses will make and the company absorbs. I wanted to have a business that will always have supply and demand without advertising. Risk is Risk we had a good laugh about how majority of futures.io (formerly BMT) feels that trading is like no other business and how you can lose at trading in a way that no other businesses can. It goes to show majority hasnt been risk takers in their venues before trading.We also talked about borrowing capitol to increase productivity, this is nothing new. Business is business

Talking about size,IMO if a successful trader trades for years and is successful. Then his size will follow because he's growing his business. I know for a fact ES will absorb alot of size without flinching, youtube video ok new traders just kidding

Im sorta tired now I dont care which one makes more money scalp-hold,just as long as most of us do.
Best Wishes R

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  #66 (permalink)
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Rad4633 View Post
@Big Mike

At 32 and being able to retire early in life, I commend you.

Just turned 35 but thanks I set a goal some years ago to be retired and living in my dream location by age 40, and I am glad to say I will be a few years early the way things are going.

If there is one single constant in trading, it's that everyone has a different way of looking at the market. And everyone always thinks they are right.

Have a good weekend,

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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  #67 (permalink)
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djkiwi View Post
@ Monpere

The issue I have with your posts in this thread is you are promoting/defending a system of extremely small targets that has virtually a zero chance of success. Because you have been on this forum for awhile the danger is some people may start believing it's a viable system and start trading it live.

In this post below you state:

"2:1 Risk/reward ratio. I can post this chart everyday for the next week if you want, the results are always the same, around 60%-65% win ratio"

https://futures.io/traders-hideout/18809-probability-101-a-4.html#post205362

Again, if we go back to Anagami's research your claimed figures of 2:1 and 60%+ win ratio puts you in case 6 (Liar). He states:

"For 60% winning at 1:2, the ratio is about 39 - absolute mastery of mind, method, and money, combined with experience. I AM THE MARKET. Monstrous edge of a trading mystic.

I'm not sure 60% at 1:2 RR is attainable... but you never know. Until I see somebody's trading records, I'm calling this the LIAR level (if you exist, speak up!)".

https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/19870-why-7-difference-between-failure-success-trading.html#post217834

You dismiss Anagami's research out of hand but provide no viable alternative to what the typical win rate of a normal scalper is. I've never heard of anybody able to achieve your claimed 2:1 RR and long term 60%+ win rate. If they are, they probably aren't writing in this forum but sitting in Goldman Sachs making $10 million+ a year.

Frankly, whether you are achieving such a high return is not the issue. The issue and the thrust of my posts is to point out that the odds of a trader achieving success with such small targets is extremely low and should be avoided wherever possible.

My Spreadsheet Analysis

The spreadsheets I've presented are simple mathematics not theoretical. Any trader that inputs his typical risk/reward ratio, % win rate, number of trading days, targets, stops, slippage and commission that is exactly what he should earn in a given year. That can be the budget by month to measure performance.

Variable Expenses

Also to suggest commission costs shouldn't matter and not having even a basic understanding of slippage costs stating 1/2 tick on oil when the reality is 1.5 + will cause problems when profitability starts to fall.

In my experience business owners who don't understand or manage their costs have a higher probability of failure. This is because when business is good costs don't matter as they still profit. Once their business profitability starts to fall due to the economy, increased competition or other factors their bloated costs catch up with them which can have disastrous effects as they don't have the cash reserves to see them through the down time. I've seen some ugly situations in this regard.

Exactly the same principle applies to trading. Trading doesn't always go well. If for some reason a trader who scalps and their performance starts to falter and fall to 2:1 RR and 40% win rate, the trader will start losing money. Simple mathematics.

As an expert in cost accounting I will also say this. Trading variable overhead (commissions and slippage) is more dangerous for scalpers than the variable overhead of a business that sells product. This is because variable overhead of a product based business generally increases as revenue rises. For example if there is demand for your product you may set up additional temporary retail distribution centers statewide when there is demand. If demand drops then you close the temporary centers therefore keeping the ratio between revenue and costs constant.

For trading there is no relationship with revenue and no such luxury to reduce costs. Whether you are making money or not you will still incur the commission and slippage. The problem for the retail scalper is when their win/rate reduces the slippage is compounded resulting in much higher losses than the person trading higher timeframes. Again simple mathematics.

Cheers
DJ

It's confounding when spreadsheets dictate the profitability of traders. How dare you be profitable, the spreadsheet say you cannot. If you can achieve a 60% win ratio, you must be a liar. If demi-god @Anagami says no scalper can reach 30% win ratio, it must be the gospel.

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  #68 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Answer is simple for me. I'm only human (not an automated bot), and emotions take over. I've significantly increased my size over the years, but am not trading 100 lots

I am on schedule to retire in a couple years. My goal is slow and steady, and then I will achieve that soon. But sine @monpere is mostly automated, it seems like he should just add a few zeros so he can take over the world by the end of the year. Or hire a team of monkeys to hit the buttons for him.



Mike

Apparently it's beat up on Monpere day! If you are not trading Market profile on an hourly chart, and are not following the mandates of higher time frames as dictated by oh god @Big Mike, then you are a heretic. If you dare have a different approach then his highness then you should be subjugated. If you can write a piece of code that moves a stop limit 1 tick above a bar, you must be a trading bot, and should be trading 100 lot at Goldman Sachs.

When alternative approaches are mocked and ridiculed by the site creator and moderator, then it's no longer worth it to present them. No longer worth it to participate. Big Mike, how many times have you changed your trading approach in the time I've been here? Go back and read my very first posts, and look at my very first charts, and tell me how they've changed since that time. What will your loyal subjects do when you change you trading approach again next year?

In terms of monkeys pushing buttons, go to the download section on this site and type Monpere in the search box, you will see that every indicator I've written has to do with tools to help a trader in their analysis, and trade execution, not MACD's with 17 different selectable moving averages, as if that will make you profitable.

My trading approach relies on fast, efficient trade execution, and I know a good number of traders on this site have benefited from the code I've shared based on the private messages I've gotten. My last thread AutoHotKey Scripts is purely about tools to automate, and optimize the tasks in the trading environment, I have a ton ot this kind of stuff to share. My next thread was going to present my trading execution automation tools, and my communication method between indicators and strategies. I think many traders would benefit from that, as I've seen a lot of programmers attempt to do this lately, which is something I've been doing for 5 years now.

But, apparently those are all subjects of ridicule. Big Mike, you private message me a number of occasions to put on a webinar on scalping, and you reply in such a nature to my thoughts in a public post! Are you upset because I said no, every time you asked, because I don't feel comfortable in public speaking? What kind of hypocrisy is this? That is mental man! When the site leadership sets this example, my time on the site is at its end.


Last edited by monpere; October 20th, 2012 at 10:46 PM.
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  #69 (permalink)
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sinnce the thxs button is missing...Thxs monpere,I like your threads personally.

Personally when you which a certain age ,WGAF what anyone thinks,.I am 45 been doing it for 15+ years,still learning
to filter the good vs the bad vs the absurd. Lots of layers of grey friend. Keep posting.


Last edited by Sunil P; October 20th, 2012 at 11:06 PM.
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  #70 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
Apparently it's beat up on Monpere day!

My comments were made in jest, I apologize for not making that more clear.


Quoting 
Go to the download section on this site and type Monpere in the search box, you will see that every indicator I've written has to do with tools to help a trader in their analysis, and trade execution, not MACD's with 17 different selectable moving averages, as if that will make you profitable.

And I have always thanked you for your contributions, many times, as have many others.


Quoting 
My last thread AutoHotKey Scripts is purely about tools to automate, and optimize the tasks in the trading environment, I have a ton ot this kind of stuff to share.

And you will see I thanked every post you made in that thread where you contributed this code, because I found it useful and I appreciate you sharing.


Quoting 
But, apparently those are all subjects of ridicule.

Not true. You make many posts about how well your automated systems do, so I was looking to hear why exactly you don't just add a zero or two at the end of the number of contracts you trade - it was a comment made tongue-in-cheek, I figured your answer would be that discretion is required. I never see you post that you had a bad day or bad string of trades, so I wasn't 100% sure what your reply would be. I wasn't expecting this however


Quoting 
If you are not trading Market profile on an hourly chart, and are not following the mandates of higher time frames as dictated by oh god @Big Mike, then you are a heretic. If you dare have a different approach then his highness then you should be subjugated.


Quoting 
Big Mike, you private message me a number of occasions to put on a webinar on scalping, and you reply in such a nature to my thoughts in a public post! Are you upset because I said no, every time you asked, because I don't feel comfortable in public speaking? What kind of hypocrisy is this? That is mental man! When the site leadership sets this example, my time on the site is at its end.

I asked you to present a webinar (which you declined) because I believe in diversity and try to make sure that multiple views are represented on the site since there are many different ways to trade (a point I made just a couple of posts up from here).... I believe more or less the exact opposite of what you seem to think I believe, it would seem, based on your post.

Is it not possible to have a civil debate about your trading methodology? Not everyone is going to agree with you. Not everyone agrees with me. It's life, who cares what others think so long as you know the truth and are happy with your own choices!

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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