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Platform: "I trade, therefore, I AM!"; Theme Song: "Atomic Dog!"
Trading: EMD, 6J, ZB
Posts: 796 since Oct 2009
I have seen so many traders go broke trying to and relying on stats and conclusions of equality like these, no offense, but real world results, at least in those former traders' cases trumps academic discussions and conclusions.
Some system vendors, in order to increase their win loss rate became hucksters, and room moderators and general console-ers, so that others would follow their trades and add an artificial cushion of volume, and volitility, or simply put, easy pickings, and one of the smallest transfers of wealth from those pockets to the moderators, hence their rooms no longer being in operation, as they used to be. Simply put, those traders imperical / live results were not what was advertised, nor were they logrithmic, as described (ES, NQ, YM, ER2/TF all being relative and the same, adjusted by volume for point moves)
If someone is expecting a 12tick gain, then one has to be using a 10tick/$100 moving vehicle. If someone is expecting a 12 tick gain from something as heavily traded as ES, then that's some pretty big hope (hopium traders call it).
Perhaps the expression, that those who do don't talk, achieve results that are enviable, and its rather difficult to openly discuss, because so many read and reverse engineer threads like these, just to reap a harvest of slower money / dumb money (as the professional shops call it).
Whats interesting is those professional shops have moved over enmasse to automated systems and begun to rid themselves of those expensive Ivy league Traders / Salesmen / Investment Banker types. Seems this scale issue knows no bounds....
You are unwilling to argue the point because you have no point; comparing weather on a 20 minute time frame to financial markets is one of the most ridiculous comparisons you could make. Do some research of your own, if weather is the best comparison you can make as to why scalping for ticks is more viable than swing/day/position trading.
First of all, I acknowledged this very point above:
Second, I believe that I was using market profile before the owner of this fantastic trading forum was, for whatever that's worth, so if you are implying that I or anyone is somehow blindly following what others do, then you are not correct. I like Mike a lot, and I respect him a hell of a lot, but I have been an independent trader, learning from others but trading how I trade for a long time, so please understand that I am not a lemming, and that I make my own decisions. So, do not group me into the category of lemmings, just as I have not grouped you into the "scalpers are all the same" category just because you are a scalper.
Are you making the argument that scalping is the ONLY way to manage risk and "make it" for a retail day trader?
One hypothetical trade means nothing. Besides, a 5 tick stop and 5 tick target, or a 20 tick stop with a 20 tick target means there is no real edge present here for me, and is not a situation I would find myself in. I would have a 5-8 tick stop and a 20+ tick target before I ever had a 20/20.
And the 20 tick trade is still the better choice because you are outside the random rotations of the market which are unpredictable, and you also have a much better efficiency with your trade vs costs (commissions, slippage).
I've posted this elsewhere, but looking at the top 20 performing managers, it doesn't seem like evidence agrees with this statement.
Narula Columbia Business School
Kuhn Harvard College
Hintze Harvard Business School
Chen Columbia University
Cooperman Columbia Business School
Odey Oxford University
Hanover University of Chicago
Tepper Carnegie Mellon
Loeb Berkeley/Columbia
Weingord SUNY
Dewan/Coleman Princeton/Williams College
Sandler Wisconsin
Rosenstein Wharton
Halvorsen Stanford
Feinberg Princeton
Griffiths Harvard College
Lippmann University of Pennsylvania
Yeary University of Chicago
Zimmerman Amherst College
@josh,
My points are clear and concise. If your current path is taking you where you want to go, stay on it. Otherwise, in a few years, come back and re-read. You might be surprised by what you learn.
You have made very little in the way of actual points, as you have so far made no logical argument. Because of this, you prefer to make things about me, and what I might be surprised to learn in a few years, complete with a sarcastic smile that you include because of your discomfort in speaking your own mind with conviction in the face of disagreement. It's not about me, but your choice to make it so makes it very clear that you have nothing of value to say on the subject. So, enough has been said, and I have wasted enough time. I would be happy to discuss this if you can include some logical facts and clear details, and not make the discussion about you, me, Mike, or anyone else who you know next to nothing about, as a means to divert attention from the subject. Otherwise, our brief discussion is over.
The main question should be asked differently before arguing scalping vs position trading.
Here it is the real question:
Are you good enough to make a realistic 30-50 grands a month as a full time trader, regardless of the method? If so, would you be here arguing your trading superiority? The chances are: not. You would not have time for this.
It would be more helpful to aspiring traders if one of gurus would come here and say "Here is how I trade and here is my outstanding performance." But, then again, he would not have time for that, would he?
