Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
I just discovered this thread. Thanks a lot for the great insights that you shared with the forum.
I am curious to know if, reading your old posts, you still agree with most of what you wrote years ago, or if your thought process evolved into different directions.
Above all I would like to know if now trading looks a lot easier to you...in that case maybe now you read your old posts and you have the sensation that, when you wrote them, you were overthinking.
No my basic thinking has not changed and I still stand behind the things I said years ago. Those thoughts did not come in a day but were formed over years slowly and methodically. Often after have being beaten half to death.
I don't think like most traders so many may not agree with my thinking but it works for me. You need to decide who you are and what you believe. Don't believe what I think or say, not me or anyone else but make it your own. At your core you have to be who you are or things will never work as this is your foundation for all things.
Does trading look a lot easier to me now? Trading is work, hard work. If you think it will ever be easy you are big time wrong. This is war, measure /counter measure. There is no constant as things are always moving and changing. This is half the fun as you are always in the chase sometime being chased. You have to refine and adjust as things change. You make constant micro adjustments all the time to stay alive. You need to understand the bigger picture and use the best and most adaptive indicator you have, that big mass between your two ears.
I hope I answered your questions to your satisfaction.
Just know you are not the hunter but the hunted and they are very good at. If you want some insight put the shoe on the other foot. Imagine you have a 100 million dollar account. What could or would you do to turn a profit on your account.
Right now the markets have been going up. You may think things are getting better or improving when the complete opposite is true. They (the big money) are not getting in but pushing it up to get out and be on the sidelines. They are liquidating their positions before it goes down. Not a crash but a long term downward trend. "It is not what you look at but what you see.". I developed my own analytics and can see this clear as daylight they are getting out of longs but not getting back in short. What do you see?
Cheers
Cliff
New Zealand the only covid free country on the planet
I completely agree with you. The thing that struck me the most about your posts is where you mentioned to think about the other side of the trade and to think "what will head fake a trader". I am still in my quest for profitability, the more I understand the market the more I think that since this is a zero sum game, market must induce as much pain as possible to as many people as possible.
It's the mirror of capitalism (how many small businesses had to go bankrupt to allow Amazon to be such a giant?), there is no blame toward the market or capitalism in what I say, I am simply describing this phenomenon. If you want a big corporation someone will go bankrupt to allow it to grow, same things with market.
I will make you an example: market changes volatility... it needs to do so! by changing volatility it shakes out a lot of people.
Right now if I see a setup that looks "too obvious" I just stay away. It is really a mind game. It took me over 3 years to come to the level in which the only thing I care is strategy. Now I am working to accept that this is more like poker and that I must accept the art of playing wisely.
Concerning current market trend this is my view: FED is playing a big role in market moves and right now the prevailing interpretations is that market will just go higher and higher because it is pushed by the FED. So basically everyone think that this is "the only" possible interpretation. Now I don't know what will happen, but when everyone thinks exactly the same my alarms go off.
What if the market starts to "calm down" and we enter a bear trend for years (like Japanese market did years ago), nobody thinks that this pandemic proved the power of China and that the USD role as a world currency might be in jeopardy. They don't even question the fact that maybe USD might be replaced by cryptos or by Chinese Yuan.
So I don't know what will happen next about the market (also I avoid strong biases), but I think that when everyone has the same interpretation of something things will go bad. It's in the nature of the markets if everyone is buying now or then there will be no buyer left.
