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Great strat to play BLS news
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Great strat to play BLS news

  #1 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
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Great strat to play BLS news

I love TradingTheOdds.com because they try to find strategies that have statistically high probability of success. Why would anybody not want to trade with the odds in their favor?

The 3rd entry in their "How to Make Millions (%)" series deals with trading BLS news. This Friday is a CPI report, see how it closes on Thursday and act accordingly. If, for example, the market is closing up on Thursday I'd buy SPY or a levered version before Thursday's close. Or, for futures, I could buy ES. To avoid overnight margin I could wait until the new session starts at 5pm and buy it then as the price usually doesn't move much between sessions.

How To Make Millions (in %) Trading The SPYDER ? BLS Economic News Releases - TRADING THE ODDS

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  #2 (permalink)
Just starting out...
Sydney, Australia
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Amibroker, Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: IB
 
siege's Avatar
 
Posts: 11 since Jan 2010
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This stuff seems pretty fishy to me.

Firstly, this backtest is over a 52 year period, with the number of trades averaging out to be ~330 for anyone one system. That means they are taking ~6 trades per year... IMO, boring is the only word to describe it.
Secondly, the maximum growth rate per trade is 0.15%, which means that you'll be making a whopping 0.9% profit per year... LOOOOOOOOOOL.. what is the point of that? Just stick your money into a term deposit and you'll be making more for less work.

In fact, just look at the "S&P" column to see that the S&P outperformed by about 2700%....

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  #3 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,859 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,254 received



siege View Post
This stuff seems pretty fishy to me.

Firstly, this backtest is over a 52 year period, with the number of trades averaging out to be ~330 for anyone one system. That means they are taking ~6 trades per year... IMO, boring is the only word to describe it.
Secondly, the maximum growth rate per trade is 0.15%, which means that you'll be making a whopping 0.9% profit per year... LOOOOOOOOOOL.. what is the point of that? Just stick your money into a term deposit and you'll be making more for less work.

In fact, just look at the "S&P" column to see that the S&P outperformed by about 2700%....

True, overall return is not that high, but I doubt anybody would trade this as their sole investment strategy. It's good to have a diversity of setups that adapt to different situations. You can increase return with leverage (margin, futures, options, etc) as long as you execute good MM.

Also, Setup 5 has a better profit factor and a higher win rate than the "S&P 500" column, which are the 2 most important factors for me when determining the effectiveness of a system. This is truly a statistical edge, which all traders should be looking for in any setup, otherwise you're just gambling. I'll be watching how the market closes today and will act accordingly, only taking trades if the S&P is up or down more than 0.50%

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