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Do you believe in luck in trading?
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Do you believe in luck in trading?

  #31 (permalink)
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So if no luck and no skill in the equation

Maybe it's medication? i.e. movie Limitless

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  #32 (permalink)
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Here is another example of luck in trading:

If you're not disciplined and you don't follow your rules ----and you happen to be right on a particular trade -- you end up thinking that you can do that all the time.

Forget it -- it was luck... 99% of luck -- I know I've been there.

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  #33 (permalink)
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Is it luck that when you drive to the grocery store, you aren't killed in a car accident?

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  #34 (permalink)
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I always think that skill gets you into a good trade but luck dictates how far it's going to run.

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  #35 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Is it luck that when you drive to the grocery store, you aren't killed in a car accident?

Mike

So is it a failure of skill if you are killed in a car accident?

"If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong."
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  #36 (permalink)
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addchild View Post
So is it a failure of skill if you are killed in a car accident?

No not always. But likewise, it is not always luck that you survived a trip to the grocery store either.

Using the word "luck" like this is just inaccurate imo.

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  #37 (permalink)
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Trading can be like staring down the barrel of a gun.......


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  #38 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
No not always. But likewise, it is not always luck that you survived a trip to the grocery store either.

Using the word "luck" like this is just inaccurate imo.

Mike

I agree, I believe luck only exists under adverse probabilities, so luck would be getting in an accident while not wearing a seatbelt, and surviving. The failure of skill would be driving without the seat belt.

A better way to think about it is something like Russian Roulette. 1 bullet, 6 chambers, two players. Luck is the outcome of the adverse probability.

Gambling is taking the bet even though the probabilities are against you.

"If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong."
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  #39 (permalink)
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I found out this interesting story about luck, Coincidence, Probability and Risk:
No doubt that luck plays an important role in trading. Trading is about taking risks. Here's a fascinating story about two famous traders with differing attitude to risks and chances. [this is a must-read!]

Luck, Coincidence, Probability and Risk

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  #40 (permalink)
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Absolutely there's luck in trading. Here's a couple of examples....

You plan your trade, place a limit order to enter. You're order is hit to the tick and you get filled without taking any heat on the trade. An instant winner. That's pretty damn lucky.

You're in a winning trade and the market is moving swiftly to your target. Everything is looking great. You're exit limit order is in the market just waiting to be hit. The market moves to your limit order, trades there briefly and reverses hard on high volume, leaving you unfilled on your exit. You end up giving back a point of your profits. That's pretty damn unlucky.

"In order to excel, you must be completely dedicated." -- Willie Mays
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