Two Line Trading

January 8th, 2010, 11:07 AM

Fredy lol,
I like that we are saying here all that we think if it at first look seems crazy and wrong things.
After discussion thereafter it could happen that it's just brilliant, what we thought at first crazy or wrong.
Don't know who to do that in Ninja

That's why hope Cunparis or somebody with programming experience can help us.
I also want now to plot as mentioned 1 minute volume on 5 minute price
and now also on 1 minute price 5 minute volume as I already did + 1 minute volume
I see now "strange things"

I see now, seems all, how it "inside"

Krgds,
Andrew

FredyMegaG

Lol andrew no prob! Discussion is healthy.

But what to you mean "move the market back"? are you refering to the small retrace prior to the breakout?

I guess that was in overnight period, and since it was a HVC, probably the market makers let the price fall enough to stop out all the premature bulls, waiting for a rally.

5 minute volume on 1 minute chart??? how did that work out? ill check it too.

Eric, dont worry im not sure of my analysis too... ive just start reading the book, and that kinda made sense to me.. thats why i posted to check out what you saw it was happening there.

Overall ive seen HVC on major breakouts, consolidation zones and reversals!

so i guess volume alerts something is going to happen, while price action tells exactly what's happening.. right?

Still learning how to interpret all this...

January 8th, 2010, 11:28 AM

+
Fredy,
Move market back...Look what happen on your chart where green line starts, what I meant, huge draw down right ? Why that gone back upwards

?
I think you are 100% right about HVC, that why I also want to study that more and seems we are doing that here.
Yes, I think price and volume tells exactly what will be just because they acts as per laws the have to comply with.

Krgds,
Andrew

FredyMegaG

But what to you mean "move the market back"? are you refering to the small retrace prior to the breakout?

I
Overall ive seen HVC on major breakouts, consolidation zones and reversals!

so i guess volume alerts something is going to happen, while price action tells exactly what's happening.. right?

Still learning how to interpret all this...

January 8th, 2010, 12:46 PM

Fredy and Eric,

I've checked now today's high and low on a few instruments and discovered interesting thing...Bid/Ask volume at these tops and lows is with about 1/3 and 1/4 ratio

Fredy,
seems we are somewhere, but seems in right direction

Eric,
Would you be so kind to stay with your valuable comments and corrections in that thread discussion

Krgds,
Andrew

January 8th, 2010, 01:04 PM

OK by me , Im starting the weekend early and will have some input after a nice snooze . See you all later .

January 8th, 2010, 02:31 PM

Have a nice weekend !

Will be glad to see you back.

Krgds,
Andrew

Eric j

OK by me , Im starting the weekend early and will have some input after a nice snooze . See you all later .

January 8th, 2010, 04:43 PM

FredyMegaG

Here's one analysis of mine, please comment!

Spot on. Same thing happened today. In fact I thought your chart was for today when I read it and then I noticed jan 5.

Slight precision - no market makers in futures. Let's call them "smart money". When smart money wants to sell they need to sell into rising prices to avoid pushing the market. To do that they will buy. There is a saying "do a little buying in order to do some selling" something like that. And that's what they do. Once prices rise they can sell into it. Their selling will stop the advance (eventually) and that's when price will fall down. Falling prices attract more buyers and if there aren't enough they'll buy again to repeat the cycle. Once they've sold all they need to sell they'll give it a big push like pushing a car off a cliff. this occurs on multiple timeframes. The COT report confirms what the smart money is doing but it comes out with a week delay.

January 8th, 2010, 04:52 PM

Andrew

Let's ask Cunparis or somebody to plot 1 minute volume on 5 minute chart ?!

Here ya go

January 8th, 2010, 08:45 PM

Andrew

+
Fredy,
Move market back...Look what happen on your chart where green line starts, what I meant, huge draw down right ? Why that gone back upwards

?

I think i can answer that!

(maybe im quoting Tom Williams a bit, so i really cant take credit for all of this)

Resistance areas are selling zones and even if the price has been coming up, when they meet this selling presure, the momentum to go up will start to fade as new buyers meet the sellers strenght, so price starts to stagnate and moves sideways.

Market makers know exactly where these areas are! If they are bullish, they've bought at lower prices and are wanting to take price further up, but to pass this zones, they have to meet some of the selling (and this means buy some of the excess supply at early low prices (since they estimate price to go further up, they dont want to sell so early) and this is bad for them.

Tom compares this to a car going at high speed on the highway, and having to slow down and stop to pay the Toll ticket, to be able to keep racing on. :car:
Resistnce zones are the Ticket toll gates.

The newbies that were buying this move, now see the price stopping to go up, and even going down due to the strengh of the sellers. Some of them are stopped out, which increases the supply pressure (since the only way to get out of a long position, is to go short).

Some of the buyers start to panic, and think that they've bought at what appears to them to have been a top. And start to think "Messed up! ..better cover!"

Market makers dont want this! cause if newbies cover, they are selling, and more selling means price going further down... BAD FOR BUSINESS

So the only way to surpass this, is to make a sudden very quick move TROUGH the resistance zone!

They enter the market and this creates momentum:

Some of the selling is met! so the down pressure stops, and more buying is started;
Some sellers are stopped out <=> more buying (like Tom says, is like throwing gasoline to the fire);
The newbie buyers stop panicking, since they start seeing a loss turn into a profit, so they hold! "Guess i was right after all...";
Two line traders awaiting for the breakout, also buy.

So this is all mixed together to move the prices further up where the Market makers wanted it to go, by just giving it a push!

I guess this covers it! Hope to make Cunparis proud of my analysis.. he's the volume keeper

What do you guys think?

Am i close?

January 8th, 2010, 08:52 PM

please replace "market makers" with "Smart money" just as Cunparis said!

January 8th, 2010, 09:18 PM

It might take less processing power to just use a data series with GetMedian() and an EMA .

wh

@cunparis for your strategy you can easy use for target and stop this methods, i think is better then curve fitting ...

you take the average-range or median of the last x bars with a factor

Code

                            
int[] d = new int[21];

            

               for(int i = 0; i < d.Length; i++)

            {

                d[i] = (int)Math.Round((High[i] - Low[i])/TickSize,0);

                

                

            }



            double av = getAverageFromArray(d);

            double med = getMedianFromArray(d);

Code

                            
private double getAverageFromArray(int[] dd)    

        {

        

            int dblResult = 0;

        

            foreach (int dblValue in dd)

        

                dblResult += dblValue;

        

            return dblResult / dd.Length;

        

        }



         private double getMedianFromArray(int[] ee)

        {

            int size = ee.Length;

            int mid = size /2;

            double median = (size % 2 != 0) ? (double)ee[mid] :

            ((double)ee[mid] + (double)ee[mid-1]) / 2;

            return median;

        }

best regards

Two Line Trading

Discussion in Traders Hideout

Two Line Trading