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Two Line Trading
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Two Line Trading

  #111 (permalink)
Senior Member
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Cunparis,

# 1 - You got that exactly, the only thing is that it's necessary to watch price at the same time, i.e. "volume/price divergences" as I've called that previously.
# 2 - Again, correct, that peaks, what are they ? Have you watched price behavior after that peaks ?

Krgds,
Andrew


cunparis View Post
Hi Andrew, I didn't forget about you (since you reminded me) I am just getting caught up due to being offline most of yesterday.

For #1 - I think it's interesting but I'm not sure how it will be useful. Increasing volume can be good or bad.

For #2 - I'm not sure this will be useful. There is a lot more volume at the open and that will distort things a bit because volume will drop off and then there will be peaks.

Have you tried any of these ideas manually? If you can show some charts where it could be useful then I will see if I can program it. I'm a bit short of time right now.

Quoting Andrew: 1. To measure in % decrease/increase of present volume bars against previous one
2. Calculate "average middle" volume since regular session start and again % of decrease/increase of last volume bar against it calculated "average middle" volume


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  #112 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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cunparis View Post

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BTW the current COT reports show the smart money is selling, quite a lot. So that provides a directional bias. When we see the HVC bars we cannot really know if it's accumulation or distribution. But usually if HVC is after a move up it's distribution because the pros do not chase the market (usually!). Also the COT showing smart money selling will also support the view of distribution.

Friday the market moved up quite a bit. My personal view is that the pro's are suckering in longs and forcing shorts to cover before a down move next week, possibly Monday.

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  #113 (permalink)
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Cunparis,

Thank you.
Does it tells anything to anybody ?

Krgds,
Andrew


cunparis View Post
Here ya go


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Two Line Trading-1-8-2010-4-52-05-pm.png  
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  #114 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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cunparis View Post
BTW the current COT reports show the smart money is selling, quite a lot. So that provides a directional bias. When we see the HVC bars we cannot really know if it's accumulation or distribution. But usually if HVC is after a move up it's distribution because the pros do not chase the market (usually!). Also the COT showing smart money selling will also support the view of distribution.

Friday the market moved up quite a bit. My personal view is that the pro's are suckering in longs and forcing shorts to cover before a down move next week, possibly Monday.

Current S&P COT chart:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Get more for free here:

http://commitmentsoftraders.org/wp-content/uploads/Static/SP_OPT.png

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The following user says Thank You to cunparis for this post:
 
  #115 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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And the best COT book:

Amazon.com: The Commitments of Traders Bible: How To Profit from Insider Market Intelligence (Wiley Trading) (9780470178423): Stephen Briese: Books

(written by the guy who makes the free charts)

But I warn you again, if you want to go down the COT road it's a lot of work. Very time-consuming. Seems very simple which is the trap. hehe..

if you just want to daytrade or even hold trades 1-5 days, I don't think it's necessary or worth the time & effort.

I subscribe to the author's newsletter so that I don't have to analyze it myself. It's expensive though.

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  #116 (permalink)
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Cunparis,

That's why I prefer to watch "raw" volume

Krgds,
Andrew

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  #117 (permalink)
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Why not to use direct source ?

Commitments of Traders

Krgds,
Andrew


cunparis View Post
Current S&P COT chart:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Get more for free here:

http://commitmentsoftraders.org/wp-content/uploads/Static/SP_OPT.png


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  #118 (permalink)
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P.s. Cunparis,
That's why I prefer some "simple" contracts apart from ES, as it's, at my opinion, too much synthetic, i.e. universe of SP instruments is huge, lot of trades are done as hedging or whatelse, like that example, buy 1 SP - sell 5 ES, etc, etc.
But still even for that, think "raw volume" shall help to see more or less correct picture.
As nobody can change price/volume correlation and divergence, it's pure physics.

P.s.2 I will be back in a few hours

Krgds,
Andrew


cunparis View Post
BTW the current COT reports show the smart money is selling, quite a lot. So that provides a directional bias. When we see the HVC bars we cannot really know if it's accumulation or distribution. But usually if HVC is after a move up it's distribution because the pros do not chase the market (usually!). Also the COT showing smart money selling will also support the view of distribution.

Friday the market moved up quite a bit. My personal view is that the pro's are suckering in longs and forcing shorts to cover before a down move next week, possibly Monday.


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  #119 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Andrew View Post
Why not to use direct source ?

Commitments of Traders

Krgds,
Andrew

That's what I use to import the data into tradestation. I then process the raw data. In the book he talks about using a stochastic formula on the raw data.

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  #120 (permalink)
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hey cunparis,

isnt there an indicator that plots the net difference in the bulls and bears from COT?

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