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Webinar: Jack Schwager of Market Wizards
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Webinar: Jack Schwager of Market Wizards

  #101 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
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The economy of the United States is the world's largest national economy. Its nominal GDP was estimated to be over $15 trillion in 2011, (wiki)
$170/15 = 11.33 years.

Check that. 1.7 * 10^17 is 170 quadrillion (170,000 trillion).

$170,000 / 15 = 11,333 years

Edit:
I should point out that it is doubtful he would have kept the 25% per month gain rate with a continuously compounding size. At a certain point he would be changing the market significantly, either by the amount of money he removed or because of the amount he was injecting into it to do trades. It wouldn't have worked the same.


Last edited by Ymmv; July 1st, 2012 at 08:54 PM.
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  #102 (permalink)
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Ymmv View Post
Apparently this was caused by the leap second that was added at 0000 UTC. A whole bunch of systems were affected. Explains why we both were having issues at exactly the same time.

I'm sure there will be more news about it coming in the following days.
'Leap Second' Bug Wreaks Havoc Across Web

Yes, that is exactly what happened. Rebooting solved for me, but turns out could have disabled NTP and changed date manually. But of course at the time, I didn't know it was a leap second issue.

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  #103 (permalink)
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Mike
Thanks for putting it on and asking my questions. It was a good interview...that you chose to give your Saturday for and then on top of that deal with tech issues. In fact thanks for all you do. Pretty incredible work ethic and heart. The world needs more like you. Much much appreciated.

“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” - Dr. Seuss
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  #104 (permalink)
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I can't wait for my book to arrive and to read about the crazy guy who averages down and breaks all rules. I always sell into rallies too and I average down If I think of the second trade I place as of a separate trade, but he trades stocks, so it differs a lot I guess.

Thanks for this webinar!

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  #105 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Ymmv View Post
Check that. 1.7 * 10^17 is 170 quadrillion (170,000 trillion).

$170,000 / 15 = 11,333 years

Edit:
I should point out that it is doubtful he would have kept the 25% per month gain rate with a continuously compounding size. At a certain point he would be changing the market significantly, either by the amount of money he removed or because of the amount he was injecting into it to do trades. It wouldn't have worked the same.

Thank-you Vmmv!

Yes you are correct on both points!

Certainly when you have more cash than the planet earth (a guess on my part) you have a "scalability" issue.
I guess I was trying to highlight that the story was about audited results for ten years - so these are actual trading results.

I find it interesting that most people's minds seem to close down on compounding. I would guess that Jack hasn't taken a moment to compute the number but it only takes few seconds.(He dismisses it with "but 'quants' would object...")

Though Marty had a block about earning more than $1,000,000 and had a mental governor on his profits (his father's teaching of depressin era mentality) - taking the money out whenerver he got there, another person without this upbringing block, say a fund manager could had paid Marty for his calls and then executed them.

It seems though that people have a mental block with picking up a calculator.
It's just "not real".

Once size of capital became a problem for the market traded then capital could be move towards purchasing assets, businesses and countries- . As you say the 25% a month would not be maintained -though you would be the richest person who had ever lived by that point.

Nevertheless, I find it amazing that peoples' minds seem to shut down.

It is as if the idea to too much and so it is dismissed and forgotten.

Something like when a highschool teacher said to the class:
"People's mind's cannot grasp infinity."


Thanks again - I'll remember 170 quadrillion - wow a big number.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; July 6th, 2012 at 12:24 AM.
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  #106 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
I find it interesting that most people's minds seem to close down on compounding. I would guess that Jack hasn't taken a moment to compute the number

He addressed it very clearly in the webinar, pointing out he was not compounding and was taking regular withdraws any refunding only with 400k - from my own memory of what he said, as I don't have time to go back and listen to the webinar right now.

Mike

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  #107 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
He addressed it very clearly in the webinar, pointing out he was not compounding and was taking regular withdraws any refunding only with 400k - from my own memory of what he said, as I don't have time to go back and listen to the webinar right now.

Mike

Yes he did did address it clearly.

It was a25% a month for 15 years, but he took out money and refunded with 400,000. I thought maybe quarterly, but I could be mistaken. Every 3 months, the 400,000 would roughly double in value. (Rule of 72. divide 72 by the interest rate over the time period, that is the time required for your money to double in value) Take out 400,000 every 3 months, thats a pretty good nut.

Consider this, however. On a 400,000 account, 25% is 100,000/30 = 3333.33 a day.

On the CL, that 33 ticks on 10 contracts. Or, 16.5 ticks on 20 cars.

Seems very reasonable to me.

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  #108 (permalink)
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VinceVirgil View Post
Yes he did did address it clearly.

That's what I thought to.

So hopefully we can now drop the diagrams showing him taking over the world with 170 trillion dollars or whatever and move on to other useful aspects of the interview.

I am expecting to receive the ten autographed books back from Jack on Friday, and will plan to ship them out to the winners next week.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

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  #109 (permalink)
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websouth View Post
Mike
Thanks for putting it on and asking my questions. It was a good interview...that you chose to give your Saturday for and then on top of that deal with tech issues. In fact thanks for all you do. Pretty incredible work ethic and heart. The world needs more like you. Much much appreciated.

Thank you Chris. I tried to get to as many questions as I could from the members, and I hope to have Jack back in a few months when his new book is published.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #110 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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aquarian1 View Post

Though Marty had a block about earning more than $1,000,000 and had a mental governor on his profits (his father's teaching of depressin era mentality) - taking the money out whenerver he got there, ...

@Big Mike

Yes Mike he did say clearly that he each time he got to a $1M he would take out 600K and reset to 400k and restart, this is also what I said in my post - that Marty took out the money when he got to $1M.

I fail to see why you made your post.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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