Identifying the kind of day early on - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Identifying the kind of day early on
Updated: Views / Replies:2,004 / 16
Created: by DarkPoolTrading Attachments:2

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 2  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Identifying the kind of day early on

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
SF Bay Area, CA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: SC
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 204 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 136 given, 175 received


DarkPoolTrading View Post
Hi all,

What are some of the techniques that you use to identify what kind of day you believe it is going to be. Im talking in terms of will it be a mostly choppy/range bound day, or will it be a trending day.

Obviously there's no method that will always be correct, but what are some of the things you look for in the first hour or so of the day to give you an idea of what kind of day it is going to be.

One of the techniques im aware of (which I haven't used or tested), is to determine the high/low range for the 1st hour or so and make assumptions based on that eg: opening range breakout.

cheers.

I like to look for ID/NR4 bars on the daily chart. A breakout of an ID/NR4 often leads to a trend day.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to rickey for this post:
 
  #12 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,238 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,350 given, 83,214 received


DionysusToast View Post
one mans chop is another mans trend...

Absolutely. Which is why a lot of things in trading are relative to the type of trader you are. I am not a scalper, and can't "understand" those that scalp for a couple of ticks. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me, unless you are a computer doing it with such speed and frequency that is impossible as a human.

But other traders do it and it works for them. That is all that matters. I don't understand how they can make it work, but if they do then that is all that matters.

But I always see people seeking "filters" to keep them out of "chop". I've been there. Years ago I was right with these guys. All I am trying to say is that I feel so much better these days, having left all that junk behind and moved on to bigger time frames. And I always have to say that bigger time frames does not equal bigger risk, because it seems most people can't understand this. Trade an appropriate instrument and market so that you can trade a big chart, with small risk.

For me, it's simply a matter of looking at the costs of a trade. Entering a trade usually means paying a spread. Exiting a trade often means paying a spread too. Then there are commission costs. You can give up 2-3 ticks for each new trade you put on, so if you are only scalping for 10 ticks, 20-30% is going to entry costs. Whereas if you trade for 50 ticks, you've now reduced that by a factor of five.

Anyway I apologize, I am far off-topic with this.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #13 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,667 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 776 given, 8,714 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



Big Mike View Post
Absolutely. Which is why a lot of things in trading are relative to the type of trader you are. I am not a scalper, and can't "understand" those that scalp for a couple of ticks. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me, unless you are a computer doing it with such speed and frequency that is impossible as a human.

But other traders do it and it works for them. That is all that matters. I don't understand how they can make it work, but if they do then that is all that matters.

But I always see people seeking "filters" to keep them out of "chop". I've been there. Years ago I was right with these guys. All I am trying to say is that I feel so much better these days, having left all that junk behind and moved on to bigger time frames. And I always have to say that bigger time frames does not equal bigger risk, because it seems most people can't understand this. Trade an appropriate instrument and market so that you can trade a big chart, with small risk.

For me, it's simply a matter of looking at the costs of a trade. Entering a trade usually means paying a spread. Exiting a trade often means paying a spread too. Then there are commission costs. You can give up 2-3 ticks for each new trade you put on, so if you are only scalping for 10 ticks, 20-30% is going to entry costs. Whereas if you trade for 50 ticks, you've now reduced that by a factor of five.

Anyway I apologize, I am far off-topic with this.

Mike

Agreed

I scalp because I think the shorter horizons are the most predictable anf they are - for me.

Still - you do really need to be aware of when the market is directionless. It is quite tough for me to scalp when the market has no conviction one way or the other.

A couple of days ago, I decided to make a fairly major change to the way I look at price charts. It's early days but I think this also helps me to see when the market is directionless or moving with conviction.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


What this is, is the PriceActionSwing indicator on a 900 tick chart with prices black on black. There's no price on the chart, just the swings.

Here's the IRT version

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


My entries are off the DOM, so in terms of more localized price action, there's no real need for me to see it on a chart. I just need to know where the swing highs & lows were. I can't use a line chart as that just shows me closing prices and not extremes.

Whilst my intention was to just plot the swings, I am beginning to think that the swing volumes may also be of interest. For instance, if you swing up & down on 4k volume, then you swing up on 40k, it might be worth considering that we are now long biased as opposed to looking for a complete retracement of the 40k swing.

Previously, I'd never even considered looking @ swing volumes, even though I do look @ delta shift for a swing. It strikes me as quite obvious now.

In any case, this is all variations on a theme.

- average volume compared to 60 day average for the time of day:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


- Cumilative Delta shift sizes
- Swing Volume

It's all about commitment/volume thrown at the market.

Now - that doesn't work all the time, you do get days where the volume is high and it stays in a range. You also get low volume trend days. On balance, I still think this approach of using participation to guage strength of moves/follow through works more often than it doesn't.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
 
  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
SF Bay Area, CA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: SC
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 204 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 136 given, 175 received

DionysusToast, what you're showing looks like a wave chart a la David Weis, a la Richard Wyckoff.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to rickey for this post:
 
  #15 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Melbourne, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: AMP Futures
Favorite Futures: DAX
 
terminator8's Avatar
 
Posts: 3 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 25 given, 0 received

I am trying to find a pdf of ES research on range vs trend days with interesting statistical charts. I remember seeing it posted here but can't for the life of me find it...anyone have any ideas?

Reply With Quote
 
  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
Pretoria Gauteng
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Crude CL
 
Popsicle's Avatar
 
Posts: 214 since May 2016
Thanks: 2,014 given, 462 received


terminator8 View Post
I am trying to find a pdf of ES research on range vs trend days with interesting statistical charts. I remember seeing it posted here but can't for the life of me find it...anyone have any ideas?

Have you checked out Metric Maestro? Awesome stats. https://metricsmaestro.wordpress.com/

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
 
  #17 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Melbourne, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: AMP Futures
Favorite Futures: DAX
 
terminator8's Avatar
 
Posts: 3 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 25 given, 0 received

Wow this is pretty good, thanks for sharing!

There was another PDF I remember seeing. It had dot plots of ES ranges and was probably done by a mechanical/quant trader.

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Identifying the kind of day early on

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
kind of automatic trailing stop andreas NinjaTrader 3 May 21st, 2012 05:21 AM
What kind of day will we have today? keymoo Traders Hideout 3 April 3rd, 2012 02:06 PM
What kind of Mac do you have? Big Mike Off-Topic 9 April 3rd, 2012 01:29 PM
Identifying market cycle Azharr Traders Hideout 1 January 28th, 2012 07:11 AM
My kind of dentist kbit Off-Topic 2 May 12th, 2011 04:13 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:48 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-11 in 0.06 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.82.79.109