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QE3 - The Fed, FOMC, Congress, and Election Year equals... ?


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QE3 - The Fed, FOMC, Congress, and Election Year equals... ?

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  #11 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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I still see the oil poll . but say yes... probably in the next 72 hrs....

You are too fast. Look now.

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  #12 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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GridKing View Post
yes... probably in the next 72 hrs....

You think there will be a QE3 by the end of Friday this week?

Based on what? The Libor scandal and continuing weakness of European institutions and paper?

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  #13 (permalink)
 GridKing 
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You think there will be a QE3 by the end of Friday this week?

Based on what? The Libor scandal and continuing weakness of European institutions and paper?

Mike

Extremely low earnings expectations ... lowest since 2001

Bad Ism Print... biggest drop since 2001


lowered gdp expectations

drahgi, even if he does lower rates and drop deposit rate to zero isn't going to do diddley and is already priced in , so he can't do anything alone...


with bank scandals coming out fears will build on who is next shoe to drop and probably some angry customers bailing, if they are using any of their funds for crazy bets we will know soon...

asia has been speculating on this as well...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-03/asia-stocks-rise-on-expectation-of-monetary-policy-easing.html


Anyways , Market's pricing it in now, so they will have to appease the addicts with their next fix or pay the consequences....

1420 or 1220 ... up to the clown brigade..... Anyways we will see qe's for years, doesn't matter, we're screwed


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  #14 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Not sure how much I really care about ISM. Isn't that the one where they call 100 people and ask them if they are buying copiers and computers and staplers for the office? And if the office manager says no, then the entire global economy panics?

LOL j/k. Or am I...

So for those that believe QE3 will happen imminently, are you BTFD on every pullback right now? And once QE3 is formally announced, you continue to ride the wave or do you exit? Based on the prior QE's, it's simply a BTFD scenario and not try to beat The Fed because they have bigger printers and more ink than you.

1370 on ES is at the top of the recent range. It will be interesting to see if bulls have the strength to move us above 1420 and out of this range.

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  #15 (permalink)
 GridKing 
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Buy the rumor sell the news...

$NYMO is extremely overbought though *

and if none of the rumors are true , fasten seat belts



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 papa15 
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I think the bigger problem for the economy is the end of the year financial changes that take place unless Congress gets its act together (what is the chance for that?). Unless Congress acts, the Bush tax cuts expire and there are forced cuts in defense and some discretionary categories. And of course, there will probably be a debt ceiling debate again....it was that debate last year that resulted in the end of year fiscal cliff we are facing this year. Congress can try to change the law, but in this harsh political environment, that will be difficult.....People hear about this, but I don't think they really understand it....to busy going to the lake, and so forth. The next several months will see wild times I think......

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 GridKing 
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papa15 View Post
I think the bigger problem for the economy is the end of the year financial changes that take place unless Congress gets its act together (what is the chance for that?). Unless Congress acts, the Bush tax cuts expire and there are forced cuts in defense and some discretionary categories. And of course, there will probably be a debt ceiling debate again....it was that debate last year that resulted in the end of year fiscal cliff we are facing this year. Congress can try to change the law, but in this harsh political environment, that will be difficult.....People hear about this, but I don't think they really understand it....to busy going to the lake, and so forth. The next several months will see wild times I think......


Yep and they love to wait until a showdown... I'm sure they all still insider trade and election year


https://www.lcsun-news.com/las_cruces-opinion/ci_20986283/their-view-congress-still-has-unfair-advantage-playing

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 GridKing 
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Just for info ...

The ism report that came out was manufacturing ism report

today is non - manufacturing report


The ISM manufactoring report definition per Bloomberg



Quoting 
The Institute for Supply Management surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions is constructed, where readings above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) factory sector. Export orders, import orders, backlog orders and prices paid for raw and unfinished materials are also measured, but these are not included in the overall index.




Definition for non manuf. ism report


Quoting 
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy—indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.



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dowjones ...


Quoting 
ECB Cuts Rates On Slowdown
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi acknowledged Thursday that the euro zone's debt crisis had led to a generalized economic slowdown, hitting even the strongest countries in the region.
And although he welcomed the outcome of last week's landmark euro-zone summit, Mr. Draghi also forecast profound consequences for the cherished independence of his institution if euro-zone leaders press ahead with their plans to entrust it with powers to police the region's banking sector. Mr. Draghi said this would inevitably subject the bank to greater democratic scrutiny.
Mr. Draghi said the ECB's fear of a broader slowdown across the euro zone had materialized, justifying its decision to cut its benchmark interest rates to historic lows.
"We can genuinely say that this measure is addressed to the whole of the euro area, and not only to specific countries," Mr. Draghi told a regular press conference after a meeting of the ECB's governing council.
The euro fell by more than a cent against the dollar after the news of the rate cuts, and slid to a one-month low of $1.2364 before recovering slightly later. The news was, however, unable to stabilize a fresh slide in the Spanish and Italian bond markets: 10-year Spanish government yields were up 28 basis points on the day at 6.63%, while the equivalent Italian yield was up 15 basis points at 5.90%.


Quoting 
China Unveils Suprise Rate Cut
China's central bank lowered interest rates Thursday for the second time in less than a month, a surprising move that signals alarm by the authorities in Beijing at the state of the world's second-largest economy.
The People's Bank of China said in a statement it would cut the one-year yuan lending rate by 0.31 percentage point and the one-year deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point.
"I think most people were expecting another rate cut, but few people were expecting it to come so soon, that suggests policy makers are even more concerned than we thought," said Mark Williams, an economist at research firm Capital Economics.
Rather than another interest-rate cut, market analysts were widely expecting an imminent cut in the required reserve ratio, a less-powerful move that frees up funds to be loaned out by banks.
But Goldman Sachs economist Yu Song said the two aren't mutually exclusive. "They could still cut the reserve ratio tomorrow," he said.
In its statement, the PBOC stressed that banks should keep in place measures to control speculative property purchases, signalling that authorities don't wish to see a resurgent real estate bubble despite their increasingly active efforts to stimulate the economy.


Quoting 
BOE Boosts Quantitative Easing
The Bank of England said Thursday it will pump another 50 billion pounds ($78 billion) into the U.K.'s ailing economy in its latest attempt to jumpstart growth and counter the effects of the debt crisis in the neighboring euro zone.
The U.K.'s central bank said in a statement that its Monetary Policy Committee increased the target for the central bank's asset purchase program to GBP375 billion from GBP325 billion following its two-day meeting. It will now spend the next four months buying U.K. government bonds with newly-minted cash, a policy known as quantitative easing that's aimed at boosting spending and keeping borrowing costs low. The committee voted to keep the BOE's benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5%.



Quoting 
Central Banks Push On A String
Welcome to rate-cut city.
The People's Bank of China, the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Denmark all cut rates Thursday, and the Bank of England delivered an additional 50 billion British pounds ($77.95 billion) of so-called quantitative easing through bond buying.
The moves look coincidental rather than coordinated. But they speak to grave disquiet among global policy makers. The question is whether monetary policy will achieve much at this point. Stocks fell, suggesting investors have their doubts.
The Chinese rate cut--the second in less than a month--perhaps stands the best chance of working via traditional monetary-policy channels. That country's central bank cut its one-year deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3% and its one-year yuan lending rate by 0.31 point to 6%.
The moves suggest that next week's second-quarter growth data may be weak, and look like a pre-emptive attempt to support growth above the country's 7.5% target as China moves toward a once-in-a-decade political transition. With inflation falling, China still has room to ease. A cut in the reserve- requirement ratio, freeing up cash for banks to lend, could be the next step.
For Europe, the outlook is bleaker. The ECB cut its key rate to 0.75%, moving below 1% for the first time in its history, and lowered its deposit rate to zero. The hope might be that banks that have stashed 790.9 billion euros ($989 billion) with the ECB would now deploy it elsewhere. But ECB President Mario Draghi noted it couldn't affect banks' lack of risk appetite, ameliorate their lack of capital or boost demand for credit.
The ECB's move also triggered a cut in Denmark, since the krone is pegged to the euro, and that took Danish deposit rates to an unprecedented minus 0.2%. In the long term, negative interest rates may lead to problems with the functioning of the banking system, as it is more attractive to hold cash physically rather than leave it in the bank.
Meanwhile, the BOE boosted total gilt purchases to GBP375 billion. It is difficult to see what benefit further purchases might bring; at 1.65%, U.K. 10-year yields are close to record lows already. In the U.S., markets will await June jobs data due Friday to see if the Federal Reserve may join the global party when it meets at the end of this month.
In many developed economies, the monetary-transmission mechanism, whereby reductions in official rates filter through to juice demand, is broken. Very low rates may even be an impediment to growth, as they signal how poor the outlook is and squeeze those on fixed incomes.


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Quoting 
Fed QE3 is Moving Closer

Recent comments from key Fed members indicate that it will not take much additional weakness in data to trigger more easing. Evidence from past rounds of unconventional easing show that we are not far from the historical trigger points.
Standard monetary policy rules give diverging signals but our fed funds rate forecasting model suggests that the Fed should keep rates in negative territory for at least the coming year.
We provide a 'what to watch' table on key economic data, including individual thresholds that would move Fed closer to QE3. Given our expectations on data, we see a higher than 50% chance of additional easing on the August 1 FOMC meeting.

Fed QE3 is Moving Closer - Forex Analysis, Currency Forecast, FX Trading Signal - Action Forex



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