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Take the inexpensive route

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  #101 (permalink)
NY + NY/USA
 
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torroray View Post
Hi Jaguar52

Is it ok that once you see a couple tick of profit that you take it?

I know that this is not following the "Let your profit run" saying.

Thanks.

The underlying purpose of trading is to make money. To do this we have to take a risk every time. If we have studied enough, then we would have some statistical history that says we have a reliable performance rate to x amount of ticks before price moves against us and we face a possible loss. The ratio between risk and reward is very real, and no worse than 1 unit of loss and 2 units of win with a 60% win rate to x target won't make us much money, but we won't lose much either. It is wheel spinning. So, to answer your question directly, no. It is not ok if your win rate is too low, or your loss per trade is too high, or your risk reward is out of whack. If your win rate to full target or at least 1:1 of your trade is not high enough, then letting winners run can cause a lot of draw down. So, the bottom line is no worse than 1 unit of win to 2 units of loss, and at least 1:1 on running winners. These are minimums to preserve capital so you can take the next trade and try again.

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  #102 (permalink)
Dubai UAE
 
 
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Awesome thread!

Could you talk a bit more about your opinion of automated strategies- surely, if I'm entering/exiting a trade for a number of reasons, modelling those conditions into a strategy should result in a program that trades pretty close to the way I trade. Factor in the appropriate stops, and tweak it as you go for outliers and I'd imagine it would keep your trading very disciplined.

But theres surely more to it- what's missing?
Cheers

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  #103 (permalink)
NY + NY/USA
 
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The market is a very dynamic and fluid place. Inventory is a very controlled mechanism to create win and loss scenarios. Win for the inventory controllers, loss for everyone else.
No programmed strategy can account for real time action or inventory manipulation. Most programmed systems publically available are 50/50 at best. Most private systems are very profitable, but being private I cannot say for sure. Maybe this is a lie?

If you did manage to program a good winning system... keep it to yourself. You can rent it out - as in world cup or other managed systems for rent - but do not divulge anything about it.

I have a few bot systems. No one else has them, or ever will. Period.

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  #104 (permalink)
Clifton, NJ
 
 
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Thank you for your insight Jaguar. I have done a considerable amount of reading on trading, psychology, etc.... and your wisdom here is very concise and thoughtful. It simplifies what a lot of other folks have tried to make very complicated. Cheers....

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  #105 (permalink)
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The presence of support or resistance is represented by the shift in the flow of orders being filled on the bid or the ask. When there is more inventory on the ask or the bid then price will move in the dominant direction. Support and resistance is that shift, but it can only be a matter of a few price ticks; so by itself it is not enough. The way price approaches these previously established levels is also important. So, once there is intention to maintain a level, it becomes significant because only larger traders can do this or more traders with a similar intention. We look for the larger traders or dominant traders, so we can follow their intention. Their knowing this about us retail traders is also their opportunity to disguise their intention, or miss-represent their intention to cause you to commit yourself.

You can call S&R significant lines if that makes more sense to you. The fact that price bounces off an algorithmic formula line is mostly coincidental, and more mass wish fulfillment (or mass agreement) than magic. Thus fib Fridays, pivot Wednesdays, etc etc.

Since we can never really know anything for sure, or the most precise opportune price tick for entry, we will almost always have heat in our trading. So, we have to also consider the risk/reward ratio to determine that, if even on a coin toss, we can sustain a reasonable loss, or have a reasonable reward expectation. If all your trading were 50/50 then a RR of 2:1 will make us money. But the reality is that we never know which trades will win or how many trades it will take to fulfill that statistic. So we can suffer long periods of draw down with consecutive losses.
At 40% winners to a 4:1 risk reward ratio, you will make money. Since the market rarely moves in one direction long enough, we can only trade what it does most of the time if draw down is not acceptable. For more than 75% of the time, the market moves in expanding and contracting price ranges.

If the instrument you are trading has a typical trading range of x price ticks before reversing to trace back and expand the range in the opposite direction, then we can trade this x range. If we can catch the edge of the range just as it begins the retrace, then we can trade that range. However, if that range is too small or too unreliable, then we can not trade it. Every instrument has its own characteristic movement patterns and ranges. Knowing this will also help determine the proper RR for trading it.

The more adverse the RR, the higher the win percentage has to be if you cannot weather draw down. You do not have to trade according to someones' method. In the beginning, you can use other peoples methods to give you a starting point to discover your own way to trade according to your sensibilities, risk levels, and skill levels.

The stats tell you about your pattern of trading, your skill level, and what you need to do more of and less of in order to become, and then remain, profitable.

A traders ability to see the chart clearly without too many additional layers of patterns over price will help you see more of the intention demonstrated by the price action as it approaches a previously established level, or is in the process of creating a new level of either support or resistance from which it will eventually move. Taking the time to just observe your instrument of choice will eventually yield a better understanding of how to trade it. Once you discover a method to define the significant events that repeat itself for your instrument, then you can put together a plan to trade it. By limiting the number of patterns of price movement that we need to identify to a manageable few, we can devise a trading risk reward level appropriate to trade it.

The right or wrong of your thinking does not really matter. What matters is the results from the actions you take as a result of your thinking. If you have exhausted all other avenues and still are unable to maintain a profitable outcome from your trading, then you will need to get help. This forum has a great supply of suggestions and ideas. Just take your time.

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  #106 (permalink)
London + UK
 
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Great thread a lot of good information shared form invaluable experience. I think that sometimes its necessary to go through those times to really learn. A senior trader I met once told me - if you want to learn how to trade first you need to be in a position. In that sense I don't really agree 100% that trading sim is good in the mid/long term, but I do agree its a necessary to learning.

Thanks really good thread.

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  #107 (permalink)
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Sometimes other traders can help you put your trading into a different perspective. As inspiration, this can make you feel good or feel bad.

Trader K

There are many other... poke around when u need some inspiration.

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  #108 (permalink)
Debrecen, Hungary
 
 
Posts: 5 since Feb 2014
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Dear Jaguar!
I have saved all of your posts in this thread. I love the way you look at the markets and I guess very few of us can do this. Thank you for your posts and your thoughts! Keep up the good job!

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  #109 (permalink)
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  #110 (permalink)
Waterford, Ireland
 
 
Posts: 15 since Dec 2011
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"#1 Trade to make money.

#2 Make all trade management decisions focused on capital preservation. You will never make a bad decision or miss a trade if you remember these 2 rules."

Great.

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  #111 (permalink)
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Getting close to retirement, spending more time painting.

Edwin Abreu - Fine Art

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  #112 (permalink)
Debrecen, Hungary
 
 
Posts: 5 since Feb 2014
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Oh no
I will miss your posts
Off topic
Check out my father's art http jurko dot ini dot hu
Off topic, sorry

Jaguar52 View Post
Getting close to retirement, spending more time painting.
]


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  #113 (permalink)
New York City, NY, USA
 
 
Posts: 10 since Apr 2014

i agree 100% with your post, and love addressing the idea that you need to make sure you are a profitable trader through techniques such as virtual trading before you actually engage in real trading. anyways, i think one of the best techniques though is learning the concept of cutting your losses quick. if you learn that valuable strategy, you can ensure that you always keep your account

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  #114 (permalink)
Fort Lee, NJ USA
 
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Very Wise words

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  #115 (permalink)
Chicago, IL
 
 
Posts: 16 since Jun 2014
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What is also hard to know if you're ability to trade or be successful from it can take a lot of blown accounts etc.

Let me ask you guys this: how many traders became successful after blowing up several accounts by keeping at it? And how many did it once and blew up and said it's not for them and that's it?

It's so hard to say if trading is meant to be for someone depending on that. How many times do they try it. Do they see ANY improvements. Are there any successful trades. What exactly took you out of the game to blow up?

For me - I've made many successful trades, months, years etc. My biggest things come down to one word DISCIPLINE. The lack of it. The last attempt I was trading from home and would bored trade that would kill me. Or. I would not take my loss when I knew I should have and kept the losers running. Had I not did these two things. I would have been in extremely better shape. After trading for a year my first year. I would make $1500,$2000 on some trades here and there. I mean good amount even being fairly new to trading. My issue was - oh I made $2k on a trade yesterday so I can risk that much today or even a little more since most would be just for that last trade and a bit from my initial capital. That was what killed me. Had I still kept my parameters in place. I would be good. But No, I kept going. Didn't know when to fold them without giving it all back. Almost as if I used that positive trade as my cushion on keeping losers.

But besides from that. My point is that sometimes you need to be realistic as to why you're not meant to trade. I realized I was good at spotting chart patterns etc but terrible at risk management. I took time off to find a good common ground and decided to make a comeback with Eminis.

Stocks are too sophisticated and require a lot more capital to make good money from. Eminis is where I'm going to start.

I've debated on taking the EMINITUTOR course. I've read the old journal done by Horst. I was/am skeptical still from that thread. But was also a few years ago. Can anyone shed some light on it for me? I've seen his videos on YouTube and he definitely knows his stuff. No doubt about that.

What do you guys think? Anyone ever go through the course and seen positive results from it?

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  #116 (permalink)
NY + NY/USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Broker: Optimus Futures- Rithmic
Trading: CL, 6E
 
Posts: 236 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 11 given, 1,270 received

10 years full time trading breaks down to this:
4 years losing (a lot).
2 years stable and slowly recovering - making small steady money.
3 years of huge leaps forward trading and profits.
1 year of fantastic returns and solid consistent growing winning.

Things that have mattered most and made the difference for me in the order of importance.
1- Lucky to find a great mentor.
2- Lucky to land a moderating job trading live in front of others.
3- Lucky to have the funds to survive long enough.
4- Lucky to have support from family and friends.

Things that I think others need:
1- A good mentor.
2- A situation where you trade in front of your mentor and others. Holding yourself accountable by meeting some kind of qualifying level of performance.
3- Proper funding. $15k per contract traded BUT ONLY if you have met items 1 and 2.
4- You really need a support group.

Things that are a waste of time:
Buying indicators.
Buying systems.
Buying trade room subscriptions.
Buying fixes.
Buying secrets.

The only real information in the market that is reliable enough to use:
Price action, volume, order flow, support and resistance, time of day.
Price charts (not time or tick based)
Past history of your trading performance.

Instruments that are good to learn with:
CL, 6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, YM - anything that moves often and wide ranging.

Instruments not good to learn with:
ES - anything that takes too long at one price point with narrow range, and does not move.

You cannot buy a fix. To solve your trading woes, you need to get serious. Methodical, progressive learning with qualifiers at every level technically. Then, the real learning begins with live cash trading. The time it takes to learn the technical is under 6 months with structured training from whoever. The real learning can take 4 years.

The only fix to your trading is work. Study, practice, training, practice, practice, practice. Did I mention 10,000 hours in front of the same charts. Yes, the SAME CHARTS just watching and practicing for 10,000 hours. Keep a mental and emotional journal. Keep a separate journal of your statistics.

KISS the market. Trade what you see, but make sure you are seeing through the smoke and mirrors.

Good Luck!

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  #117 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
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Jaguar52 View Post
...
Instruments not good to learn with:
ES - anything that takes too long at one price point with narrow range, and does not move.

ES is good for learning order flow and market profile. I would even go sa far as to say it is the best instrument for this type of trading. On the other hand, if you're a momentum trader then it is another story. I suppose you have started to trade using indicators and most probably you have been influenced by these indicators that trigger when momentum kicks in. In a way, you need to see movement before taking action that's why in your world you believe you need to trade instruments that move a lot. But in reality it is not exactly true for all.

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  #118 (permalink)
Toronto
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra
Broker: MB
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 313 since Jun 2013


trendisyourfriend View Post
ES is good for learning order flow and market profile. I would even go sa far as to say it is the best instrument for this type of trading. On the other hand, if you're a momentum trader then it is another story. I suppose you have started to trade using indicators and most probably you have been influenced by these indicators that trigger when momentum kicks in. In a way, you need to see movement before taking action that's why in your world you believe you need to trade instruments that move a lot. But in reality it is not exactly true for all.



Why is the ES the best instrument for market profile?

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  #119 (permalink)
Toronto
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra
Broker: MB
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 313 since Jun 2013


Jaguar52 View Post
10 years full time trading breaks down to this:
4 years losing (a lot).
2 years stable and slowly recovering - making small steady money.
3 years of huge leaps forward trading and profits.
1 year of fantastic returns and solid consistent growing winning.

Things that have mattered most and made the difference for me in the order of importance.
1- Lucky to find a great mentor.
2- Lucky to land a moderating job trading live in front of others.
3- Lucky to have the funds to survive long enough.
4- Lucky to have support from family and friends.

Things that I think others need:
1- A good mentor.
2- A situation where you trade in front of your mentor and others. Holding yourself accountable by meeting some kind of qualifying level of performance.
3- Proper funding. $15k per contract traded BUT ONLY if you have met items 1 and 2.
4- You really need a support group.

Things that are a waste of time:
Buying indicators.
Buying systems.
Buying trade room subscriptions.
Buying fixes.
Buying secrets.

The only real information in the market that is reliable enough to use:
Price action, volume, order flow, support and resistance, time of day.
Price charts (not time or tick based)
Past history of your trading performance.

Instruments that are good to learn with:
CL, 6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, YM - anything that moves often and wide ranging.

Instruments not good to learn with:
ES - anything that takes too long at one price point with narrow range, and does not move.

You cannot buy a fix. To solve your trading woes, you need to get serious. Methodical, progressive learning with qualifiers at every level technically. Then, the real learning begins with live cash trading. The time it takes to learn the technical is under 6 months with structured training from whoever. The real learning can take 4 years.

The only fix to your trading is work. Study, practice, training, practice, practice, practice. Did I mention 10,000 hours in front of the same charts. Yes, the SAME CHARTS just watching and practicing for 10,000 hours. Keep a mental and emotional journal. Keep a separate journal of your statistics.

KISS the market. Trade what you see, but make sure you are seeing through the smoke and mirrors.

Good Luck!

Hi Jaguar,

Still following your thread. Could you describe to us how you found your mentor? Did you pay him to be your mentor? or was it a chance meeting?

Thanks.

BF.

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  #120 (permalink)
Marketing Specialist
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: GBU-39
 
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budfox View Post
Hi Jaguar,

Still following your thread. Could you describe to us how you found your mentor? Did you pay him to be your mentor? or was it a chance meeting?

Thanks.

BF.

You will never pay a real mentor.

In life you should have three people around you. A mentor to teach you, a peer that understands your current level, and someone you can teach.

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  #121 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Berlin, Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
 
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tturner86 View Post
In life you should have three people around you. A mentor to teach you, a peer that understands your current level, and someone you can teach.

If you have a family around you.....

They can't teach you, they do not understand your current level and you shouldn't try to teach them.

Otherwise I agree....

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  #122 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
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Posts: 3,985 since Oct 2009
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budfox View Post
Why is the ES the best instrument for market profile?

Quickly like that, i would say because it's more range bound.

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  #123 (permalink)
Marketing Specialist
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Trading: GBU-39
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,172 since Sep 2013
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Fat Tails View Post
If you have a family around you.....

They can't teach you, they do not understand your current level and you shouldn't try to teach them.

Otherwise I agree....

It should never family.

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  #124 (permalink)
NY NJ
 
 
Posts: 15 since Jun 2014
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Jaguar52 View Post
While trying to maximize your trade, do not fall prey to the illusion of trend in intraday trading. Many concepts and trading principles were formulated for larger day trading chart types. INTRA DAY trading is a different animal. It is very short term, immediate, and challenging. It is also full of many trading opportunities if you can wrap your head about what trading for money really means at this level. Scalpers rule. In all scalps there is the potential of sustained moves, but the structure of the market at this level is zigzag, stair stepping, trading ranges, and static pivot swing ranges. Learn to understand the concepts involved, and decide to trade for money each time you click the mouse. Risk reward is not finite at this level. Flexibility is key. Keep your trading no worse than 1 unit of win to 2 units of loss, and keep your win rate high. This means support/resistance and order flow play crucial roles in all decisions. Capital preservation rules all decisions, not being right or wrong. Losers must be kept small, winners need to be 1:1 or better, but do not turn small winners into bigger losers while trying to maintain the theoretical concept and not the reality of the evolving trade, or you are doomed to fail. The market already knows everything you do and more.

These are words of wisdom. Thanks for sharing.

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  #125 (permalink)
NY + NY/USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Broker: Optimus Futures- Rithmic
Trading: CL, 6E
 
Posts: 236 since Nov 2009
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budfox View Post
Hi Jaguar,

Still following your thread. Could you describe to us how you found your mentor? Did you pay him to be your mentor? or was it a chance meeting?

Thanks.

BF.

I had a few mentors I paid for. The first one served me well later on because, in hindsight, I realized he supplied me with enough good bullshi*T that when the next mentors came along I knew the difference. Once of my earliest mentors went on to become a rock star of buy,sell, or get out. I was fortunate to also meet up with a good systems designer who gave me the opportunity to become a professional moderator (long story for a beer night)
But the best and most helpful person in my trading career was my wife. She never gave up on me even after I blew out $100k. So, I paid for all of them except the best one. (She got the house and the car, all the credit cards, etc.)

The best mentor I had was a chance meeting. I met an old floor and pit trader who was trying to make the transition to electronic trading. He was a computer idiot, but a fantastic trader. He opened my eyes to the real market. Things he talked about was stuff I never heard before from anyone. Most of it was contrary to everything I read and heard. I met my mentor after my trading had already solidified. He propelled me forward at an exponential rate, otherwise it would have taken me longer. I was so grateful that I paid him anyway up until his death.
So, only pay a mentor for his experience. Nothing else is of value; no indicators or systems. A mentor will help shorten your learning curve. It is well worth it, but be careful. Check out his track record in black and white. If he cannot show you his record going back 5 years, then move on. Remember, he is just like you, just further along. You will become him until you can find yourself in the market.

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